Posted on 12/08/2022 9:28:44 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, roughly 95% of commercial office space was occupied across the United States, according to US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – a nonprofit, non-government organization. By March 2020, occupancy plummeted to 10%, and has only recovered to 47%, according to a new NBER report which claims $453 billion in office commercial real estate value has been wiped out in an "office real estate apocalypse."
Around the US, that resulted in a 17.5 percent decrease in lease revenue between January 2020, and May 2022, and not only because fewer offices were being occupied, but also because those that are being rented are going for shorter terms, lower prices per month, and a lot less floor space is needed as staff are told they can work from home for most or all the week.
Prior to the pandemic, 253 million square feet were rented per year; as of May 2022, just 59 million square feet had been rented, NBER's data indicates. "This indicates a massive drop in office demand from tenants who are actively making space decisions," NBER said. -The Register
What's more, while vacancy rates have hit a 30-year high, 61.7% of in-force commercial leases haven't come up for renewal since the pandemic - meaning that "rents may not have bottomed out yet."
What this means is that commercial real estate - a popular choice for pension fund managers and investors alike - may not be the best idea for the foreseeable future, given the continuing work-from-home options adopted by corporate America.
A common method used to invest in office real estate is commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which are managed and traded via commercial mortgage-backed indexes (CMBX) made up of pools of CMBSes.
According to NBER, more recent CMBXes tend to include a higher percentage of office collateral than earlier vintages. Those newer, office-heavy CMBXes, NBER said, are what's losing the most money. -The Register
NBER says that in 2019, commercial real estate assets topped $4.7 trillion - offices being the largest component.
Read the report below:
Capitalism is being destroyed, by design. Next up, the collapse of all real estate prices. Just wait for the boomers to start dying, and their heirs to finish blowing through whatever was left to them.
No longer needing space for offices and retail was easily predictable. Speeding up the process with a pandemic, not so easy to predict.
Even the need for housing space is shrinking. Young people seem to have little interest in “collectable stuff”. Just so they have a smart phone and internet.
Well gee, just convert it all to “Loft space” and condos.
With communal bathrooms to make the neighbors feel cozy.
Maybe in some cases. We have just one child (one heir), and he has built his own wealth. I'm sure that whatever we leave him will be put to good use.
(Capitalism is being destroyed, by design)
Can’t have a New World Order with a sovereign United States of America. /shiny side out
Even without the scamdemic, the way technology was headed it was only a matter of time when It would become wasteful, zillions of wasted hours commuting, business clothes, baby sitters, tens of thousands wasted in fuel...All of this wasted time and money when 50 percent of the people could easily do it from home.
Blackstone will swoop in and grab these for a song, then convert them to rentals.
2. The plan to convert these office buildings into residential property will be expensive and time consuming which will also impact the buildings value.
3. The rents from residential is about 40% lower than office rental rates. So the government will need to subsidize in order to make this plan work.
From a "tax assessment to demand for public services" standpoint the "best" developments are:
1) "Light industrial"
2) "Heavy industrial" (only because of sophisticated fire response)
3) Commerical
4) Residential--irrespective of density.
The statistics on Baltimore look bogus unless it includes Baltimore County and half of Howard County.
It’s about time government left DC— they can do it from home.
This is going to run headon into the ‘negro reparation’ taxes which are sure to come.
Convert them to re-education centers.
Large conference rooms for lectures. Communal bathrooms. Individual cubicles for application of the Ludovico technique.
“So the government will need to subsidize”
No, the government doesn’t “need” to do anything except stay out of the way.
Dunno where you got your “data” but it is false. Millennials are moving to the suburbs at the same rate as the previous generation. The suburbs have been the fastest growing regions since the recovery from the 2009 recession.
Yeah I don’t really get this worship of a commute and brick and mortar workplace if it isn’t necessary.
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