Putin’s Favorite Neighbor Is Caving in to the Kremlin

The Daily Beast ^ | February 26, 2023 | Shannon Vavra

[Timber Rattler]

The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has long tried to have it both ways. He has worked to gain the approval and support of Russian President Vladimir Putin while also trying to remain independent from Russia, and maintain ties with the Western world.

It’s a delicate balancing act, and in the last few weeks, his ability to keep it up—and keep Putin at bay—seems to have all but disappeared, Lukashenko watchers and former diplomats tell The Daily Beast.

“He seems to think he has the option to cozy up to the West again, like he did in 2014. That option is gone forever, as far as I can tell,” Scott Rauland, the former chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Belarus, told The Daily Beast. “He’s kinda stuck. He can’t say no to Putin now.”

In just the last few days, Lukashenko announced that he is willing to let Putin use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine to the south. “I’m ready to provide territory again,” Lukashenko told reporters earlier this month.

It’s something he did in the early days of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine last year, too. Since then, his relationship with Putin has grown ever closer. Belarusian and Russian forces have teamed up and held joint combat readiness drills. Belarus itself has ramped up military preparations, from sending troops to Ukraine’s border to pulling out armored vehicles from storage. And that willingness to help Putin, even as Russia barrels into a second year of war in Ukraine, is likely one step too far, warned Kenneth Yalowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Belarus who served as a U.S. diplomat for 36 years.

“The idea of him appealing to the West, that clearly is an illusion right now,” Yalowitz told The Daily Beast.

[Timber Rattler]

Meanwhile...

Belarus leader Lukashenko says he had long chat with Putin on war anniversary

[nathanbedford]

So:

Belarus is wavering under the pressure and might actually start shooting.

Moldova is likely to become a war zone.

Putin's but boy has just opined that Poland, or at least parts of Poland, should belong to Russia.

Si of China is visiting Putin of Russia.

Iran is visiting Russia

Iran is selling drones by the bushel to Russia

the BRICS are wavering

Zielinski demands fighter planes and England, for one, says he shall have them.

Russia has just abrogated the last remaining nuclear treaty.

China is increasingly belligerent

Turkey is sliding ever closer to Russia

Does this feel like 1914 or 1939?

[2banana]

The west tried a 2014 Ukrainian style western backed violent coup in Belarus a few years ago...didn’t work that time.

He knows exactly who he is dealing with.

[deport]

Help Needed

[2banana]

Neither.

For the west, feels like the end of a corrupt to the bone former empire. Its borders overrun, its money debased, a massive bloated bureaucracy, no value in its citizenship and its military a hollow shadow of its former glory.

Maybe Rome in the 400s.

“Does this feel like 1914 or 1939?”

[bert]

It feels like to me an amalgamation of losers

[nathanbedford]

You are right, it's Rome

[dangus]

After you’ve allowed your country to be the launchpoint for Russia invading Ukraine, exactly how do you “cave” any further? Lukashenvo’s Belarus is already nothing more than Belarus SSR.

[Timber Rattler]

The difference is that Putin wants to use Belarus’ army to re-open the northern front against Kyiv, i.e. use Belarussian soldiers as replacements. But Lukashenko knows that his military has no desire to do the Russians’ dirty work and would likely turn against him if ordered to invade Ukraine.

[cpdiii]

Does this feel like 1914 or 1939?

It is starting like 1914 but is morphing into 1939. What started in 1939 ended in 1945. It ended with nuclear bombs.

[bert]

Like China, I believe Belarus will drag it out and try to finesse Putin

The inactions will speak louder than the words

[bert]

Do nor take counsel of your fears........ General George Patton

[BenLurkin]

Belarus has been a Russian puppet state for years now.

Hard to believe that the ordinary people in Belarus could want any part of the Ukraine War.

[Rural_Michigan]

Hard to believe any ordinary people in the USA would want anything to do with the Ukraine war. Yet here we are, funding it and flying their flags on our houses.

[Wilderness Conservative]

If it bothers the Zbots and Biden tools then this is a good thing.

[Socon-Econ]

Not concerned. Biden/EU/China, and their Marxist client states in this hemisphere, are a far bigger threat to the American people than Russia fighting in its corner of the world.

[mac_truck]

Does this feel like 1914 or 1939?

How about like 1861, and the Donbas are the Confederates... except this time there's a great power backing them

[BobL]

“He knows exactly who he is dealing with.”

Yep, he knows what ‘promises’ from the Neocons mean (we’ll support you, until you give us the access we need to dump you).

[Grzegorz 246]

“Donbas are the Confederates”

About as much as soiled Putin is a black Miss America.

[Kazan]

https://sonar21.com/is-russia-closing-the-cauldron-around-bakhmut/

Here are a couple of big picture maps showing the current position of Russian and Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and the surrounding area. As you can see the Russians (i.e., the Wagner Group) are making rapid advances after months of slow progress and appear to be on the verge of a tactical encirclement of the Ukrainian units.

Maps at link

It is important to understand the terrain of the Bakhmut area. The photos below show a landscape that reminds me of the state I grew up in — Missouri. Rolling hills, farmland and light forest that surround small cities. The first photo is looking north and shows the positions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area. This area is not easily traversed by tanks. This is why artillery is the preferred weapon for dislodging units dug in on ridges and along the roads.

What makes the situation so desperate for Ukrainian forces at the moment is that they have been forced from their fortified entrenchments and are seeking shelter in temporary fox holes and tree lines.

Here is an update from today describing the developing situation:

There are reports of Wagner approaching Bogdanovka (west of Bakhmut) which increases the threat of encirclement.

###

It’s said that General Slursky arrived in Bakhmut to oversee the withdrawal of the more combat ready units, leaving territorial defence units to hold the rear.

After months of predictions of Ukraine retreating from Bakhmut it appears the moment is nigh. One of the key unanswered questions is how many Ukrainian soldiers will be captured and how many will escape. Regardless, this will mark another phase for Russia in its Ukrainian campaign to demilitarize and denazify. Ukraine’s next line of defense to the west (Kramatorsk and Seversk) is problematic because it sits in low ground and will be more vulnerable to Russian artillery.

In normal times the setback in Bakhmut would cause the U.S. and NATO to reassess the wisdom of its continued support for Ukraine and look for an escape route. But these are not normal times. It is more likely that the NATO crew will become more hysterical and double down on their support for Ukraine, including trying to accelerate the delivery of long range missiles which will further antagonize Russia. In short, the war will continue.