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THE FALL OF BAKHMUT, A PRELUDE TO THE FALL OF UKRAINE?
Soner21 ^ | 3 Mar 23 | Larry Johnson

Posted on 03/05/2023 3:27:46 PM PST by delta7

Ukraine won't surrender Bakhmut, says Zelensky as Russia advances near…. That promise lasted one month. Limited shelf life. Russia’s long grind to take the strategically vital city of Bakhmut is nearing it ends, with the clean up and capture of abandoned Ukrainian units still inside the city as the priority tasks for the Russian military. Bakhmut is not as economically important as Mariupol, which fell to the Russians last May, but it is geographically significant. That is why Ukraine fought so desperately to hang on to it and expended the lives of tens of thousands of its soldiers in a vain effort.

Wagner’s leader, Prighozhin, announced today that Ukrainian troops:

completely retreated from the eastern shore of Bakhmut, the fighters of the Wagner PMC began operations to clear the area from the soldiers remaining there, who, most likely, would not be able to retreat.

In addition, the Vushniks began to withdraw from the rest of the city along secondary roads, after the “musicians” took fire control of the main supply routes. https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/46870 Here is a video diary of the last two months documenting Zelensky’s changing message about the importance of Bakhmut.

Pay close attention at the 52 second mark in the video. Zelensky is having the soldiers sign a Ukrainian flag that he will subsequently present to Nancy Pelosi at the conclusion of his speech to the U.S. Congress in January.

I give Matt Van Dyke, an American mercenary supporting Ukraine, credit for his honest assessment. While he still clings to the belief that Ukraine can work a miracle and eventually expel the Russians from Ukraine, he admits that Bakhmut’s defenders were running out of time

Matt Van Dyke broke the news to Judge Napolitano today (Friday) that Bakhmut has fallen into Russian hands.

Bakhmut marks the second time since the start of the Special Military Operation that Ukraine has been unable to stop a comprehensive Russian attack and unable to mount a counter offensive to rescue trapped forces. The first was Mariupol. That attack was led by the Chechen units of the Russian Army. Once Mariupol was secured and the Ukrainian troops rounded up, the Chechens were redeployed to the rear to rest and refit.

Just like the Chechens did in Mariupol, the Wagner Group was the spearhead of the Russian attack in Bakhmut. I am not privy to the plans of the Russian General Staff but if past is prologue I expect the Wagner Group to be pulled off the line, as happened with the Chechens, and be sent to a secure area in the rear to rest and recuperate.

The damage inflicted on the Ukrainian military is stupefying. Jeffrey Sachs tweeted the following today:

If these numbers are true, Ukrainian casualties, including missing and captured, exceed 600,000. Even if we assume the numbers are cut in half, the scale of losses are staggering. One year ago, according to Yahoo News:

Ukraine has 250,000 active-duty troops, plus another 290,000 reserve personnel and 50,000 paramilitary units that could be activated in a conflict with Russia. https://news.yahoo.com/better-trained-better-equipped-know-193749574.html During the last year Ukraine has enlisted hundreds of thousands of new recruits, but these new soldiers are being sent to the front with only minimal training. Ukraine does not have the number of trained, experienced soldiers required to mount a massive counter offensive. The lack of personnel is compounded by the inability of the West to supply ammunition and vehicles in sufficient numbers to sustain intense operations.

According to Andrei Martyanov, who has good sources in Russia, the 300,000 reservists called up last August have not yet been deployed to the front lines. The meaning is simple — Russia enjoys a massive advantage in terms of manpower, tanks, artillery, ammunition, missiles and combat air.

The fall of Bakhmut is a major blow, not just to Ukraine, but to the United States and NATO. This sets the stage for the West doing something desperate while Russia is content to continue to pulverize what is left of the Ukrainian military.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: 1fatladyhassung; bakhmutfolds; bigdeal; bogusnonsense; defeatedarmy; donbasquagmire; dontbelieve; giveup; itsover; meatgrinder; putinisgay; russianlies; sowhat; sure; surrenderdorothy; therearenoreserves; ukraineiskaput; ukrsimianmilitary; ukrsinianmilitary; vaingloriousukes; war
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Alittle dose of reality, amazingly from Western sources.
1 posted on 03/05/2023 3:27:46 PM PST by delta7
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To: delta7
Propaganda can only disguise reality for so long

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦☠️Retreat of the AFU from Bakhmut caught with artillery fire,since roads are under artillery control from "Wagner"

15 AFU soldiers demilitarised pic.twitter.com/dkOJXnTTsZ— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) March 5, 2023


2 posted on 03/05/2023 3:33:30 PM PST by JonPreston
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To: delta7
A little dose of reality

Even a few war cheerleaders have been mugged by reality. Politico published this two days ago:

“We still need a strategy. Where are we going to be a year from now? I don’t think that Biden or anyone on his team has articulated that,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official in the Obama administration. “We’re past days of dancing around the sensitivities of one country or one political leader. We have got to either give Ukraine what it is going to take to win or we need to rethink the game plan.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/biden-ukraine-visit-00085343

3 posted on 03/05/2023 3:34:59 PM PST by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: delta7

The Ukrainians have probably already set up their next Siegfried line and are ready to hold it for months, just as they did in Mariupol and Bakhmut.


4 posted on 03/05/2023 3:35:09 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire, or both.)
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To: delta7

Uh they calculate casualties at Bachmut that exceed the entire size of the Ukrsinian military.

I don’t think so.

Plus it may fall but it hasn’t yet.

Judge Napolotano, who most Freepers hated for his opposition to Trump, spends his time acting impressed with propaganda guests like D MacGregor.

Will the loss of Bachmut mean the end for Ukraine? Hardly.


5 posted on 03/05/2023 3:35:41 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: delta7

I say, no. The Ukrainians have shown an incredible ability to find men and boys to remove their dead, re-dig and repopulate the trenches, and then wait four hours for the next shell. We got another year of neocon sponsored death and destruction.


6 posted on 03/05/2023 3:36:49 PM PST by ARW
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To: delta7

7 posted on 03/05/2023 3:39:39 PM PST by PGR88
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To: delta7

Yet, FOX news reported that Ukraine was able to hold off the Russians, and there was a standoff.

So, which source to believe?

Steve Harrigan is the FOX reporter on site.


8 posted on 03/05/2023 3:40:00 PM PST by adorno
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To: delta7

When Ukraine falls, do we finally get to stop sending money to them?


9 posted on 03/05/2023 3:41:31 PM PST by SamAdams76 (4,942,927 Truth | 87,539,833 Twitter)
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To: Williams

Just a FYI.

Most American divisions in WWII had a 200-300% casualty rate.

Size of an army at a snapshot in time does not equal to total mobilized.


10 posted on 03/05/2023 3:42:37 PM PST by 2banana (Common ground with islamic terrorists-they wacnto die for allah and we want to arrange the meeting)
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To: delta7

Neither side will concede. This has escalated from post Soviet Union relative peace to Russia, Russia, Russia to height of Cold War I to imminent armed conflict between NATO and Russian forces in one year. That’s an unsustainable, breakneck rate of escalation. A kinder, gentler WWII Eastern Front styled WWIII will absolutely require the draft. That’s becoming the best case scenario more with each passing, each escalating day.


11 posted on 03/05/2023 3:45:01 PM PST by hardspunned (Former DC GOP globalist stooge)
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To: delta7
Yet, FOX news reported that Ukraine was able to hold off the Russians, and there was a standoff.

So, which source to believe?

Steve Harrigan is the FOX reporter on site.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/05/ukraine-fight-for-bakhmut-continues-as-russian-forces-call-for-more-support

"Wagner group oligarch warns entire frontline could collapse amid shortages of ammunition in battle for Ukrainian city"

Ukrainian forces still control the city despite the street fighting, the deputy mayor of Bakhmut, Oleksandr Marchenko, told BBC Radio 4. Though Russian forces are pounding the routes out of the city, they have publicly pleaded with Moscow for more supplies. Ukrainian troops said one woman was killed and two men were injured attempting to cross a makeshift bridge on Sunday.

The Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who controls the mercenary Wagner force that is leading the Russian offensive in Bakhmut, warned late on Saturday that if his men were forced to withdraw, it could lead to the collapse of the entire Russian frontline.

12 posted on 03/05/2023 3:47:20 PM PST by adorno
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To: delta7

They haven’t surrendered bakhmut they just got driven out. Having it taken from them is not them surrendering it.


13 posted on 03/05/2023 3:55:35 PM PST by webheart
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To: 2banana

Thank you.


14 posted on 03/05/2023 3:56:14 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: adorno

The Fog of War.


15 posted on 03/05/2023 3:56:35 PM PST by webheart
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To: delta7

When Xi Jinping invades Taiwan, are you guys going to cheerlead for him, too?


16 posted on 03/05/2023 4:10:15 PM PST by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might)
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To: delta7

another worthless village

bfd

and then what? Ukraine ain’t gonna surrender


17 posted on 03/05/2023 4:10:59 PM PST by canuck_conservative
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: delta7

Larry Johnson is a Russian sympathizer from way back. And that website is not exactly “western sources”.


19 posted on 03/05/2023 4:17:57 PM PST by buwaya (Strategic imperatives )
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To: delta7

This sure is an awful lot of drama over a city no one had heard of before a few weeks ago.

Seems to me it would be so much easier for the Russians to end their stupid war and go home.


20 posted on 03/05/2023 4:23:10 PM PST by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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