How are you so confident in your assessment of Russian Federation military performance, given these leaks show the casualty ratio as 7:1 in favor of the Russians?
I decided early on not to believe either side as reported in media outlets...
When this conflict began last year there were many things that could not be faked that I viewed at length. Russian units abandoning their “new” equipment en masse on roadways for maintenance problems that almost any US soldier could diagnose and fix. The number of trucks in columns full of equipment with blown tires due to dry-rot was staggering. Inexcusable for anyone who ever sniffed a motor pool in the US.
Ukrainian farmers were fixing million dollar plus tanks with hand tools on the road and driving them off. Captured Russian soldiers spoke of advancing to assigned spots for resupply and when they arrived there was no logistical support there because of a lack of coordination and the same equipment problems above. The same Ukrainian farmers were using diesel from jerry cans to drive off the same equipment.
The Russians have a huge advantage in artillery but their attack last year was so disjointed that artillery barely played a role in the first few months. The same for close-air support. The Russians got the worst end of it by far last year.
However, as I have said here before, the Russians wisely withdrew and consolidated along lines in the east forcing the Ukrainians into combat that favors the bear. Fixed positions on both sides has allowed the Russians to use their artillery with simplified logistics and little coordination required and its tragically become a meat grinder. On top of that, the Ukrainians are not facing the 1941 Russian anymore. The Russians learned some hard lessons and even though they still have problems they are more like the 1943 Russian now - capable of much better performance.
I don’t buy the 7:1 ratio for the fighting last year and am certain the Russians got the worst of it, but it is undeniable that the Ukrainians are now being crushed in a style of warfare that they cannot win. The Ukrainians should have focused on force preservation instead of digging in to fixed positions across from the Russians who were not really trying to advance. They have paid a huge price for this miscalculation and I think the current exchange might be at 7:1 because there is not much fighting outside of Bahkmut.
Now it appears to be mostly artillery fire along trench lines more like WWI. To make matters worse, the Russians have finally figured out how to conduct counter-battery fire and use their drones to direct fire and they are wiping out the Ukrainian artillery forces and inflicting lots of casualties on trench lines.
If I were Putin I would maintain the status quo because I am winning. It does not make me happy to write that and I feel sorry for those guys getting shell shocked in trenches for no real reason. I want the war to end - period. I suspect Russia is sitting on the ground they feel they must have and I don’t believe the Ukrainians are capable of dislodging them along such a massive front no matter how much money we send them.
The Ukrainians biggest problem is that any “defeat” portrayed in Western media is a threat to support from the West so they are forced to sacrifice massive amounts of men and material to avoid this when the smartest move would be to withdraw and preserve their forces and push for a peaceful resolution, but things may have gone too far for that now on both sides.
The old axiom I learned as a young officer was that trench warfare favors the side with more artillery. It was true 100 years ago and its still true today. Despite the ridiculous media coverage and propaganda from both sides the current war favors Russia and I think this is why they have not really tried to advance outside of Bahkmut (the biggest meat grinder).