They should have known, they planned it!
I bet they did more than plan it.
the most comprehensive take I have seen on this is simplicius’ write-up yesterday. his third? possibility (Final one in his article) is that this was a long-term setup intended to be timed during Ukr. breakthrough(s) on the front.
thus the pattern of ‘erratic’ claims and behavior going back months.
why it was activated now without any of the supportive circumstances is another matter.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/prigozhins-siege-ends-postmortem
kadryov made some comments yesterday to the effect that the guy was sore about some business deals and his daughter not getting some deal with st petersberg he wanted. who knows, but history is FULL of this sort of betrayal for what to the outsider seem like the most misplaced, trivial reasons.