must consider collapse? Really? Why?
Well, we should consider ALL options these days, no?
I think this episode shook Putin (and Xi) to the core. Do I think Putin is going anywhere today? Nope.
What I think people need to consider is not Putin’s popularity among the citizenry (which I doubt is really 80%) and instead consider his popularity among the Oligarchs. Their wealth has been ruined and I am sure they are at their wits end.
Public perception is critical in the West. But it has NEVER been something Russian rulers considered very important.
Putin is way passed his “use boy date” just by the nature of Russian politics. The fact that he is still in control after all these years is an amazing feat for him. I doubt there are any “good” young Russians waiting in the wings. That bodes well for his lasting a bit longer.
Although, hearing Swan Lake on Moscow TV anytime soon wouldn’t be a shock either.
“must consider collapse? Really? Why?”
Because unexpected things can happen very quickly.
1. The fall of the Roman Empire was wholly unexpected just a year before it happened.
2. No one expected the USSR and its Eastern Bloc to collapse in 1989.
3. No one expected the COVID shutdowns in February 2020.
4. This time a week ago no one thought Prigo would march on Moscow.
Makes a nice dream. All the mutiny stuff looks mighty like a staged event for American consumption. The idea that prigozhin is/was a threat to Putin and is not dead already is absurd.