Presidency sealed off in coup-prone Niger

Ahram on line ^ | 26JUL2023 | staff

[AdmSmith]

Senegalese President Macky Sall said Thursday a diplomatic solution in Niger was “still possible” nearly two months after a military coup toppled its democratically elected president.

https://www.modernghana.com/news/1260598/diplomatic-solution-in-niger-still-possible.html

Yes, some money and immunity for those who have taken bribes and caused a coup (not only the general but also some former politicians). It is cheaper than a military intervention.

[AdmSmith]

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to withdraw his nation’s ambassador and troops from Niger in line with demands by the country’s current military leadership could serve as a warning to the United States on its posture in a restive region where Washington is looking to enhance its influence.

https://www.newsweek.com/frances-defeat-africa-warning-sign-us-1829674

[AdmSmith]

Video shared on social media shows the dramatic moment when a plane purportedly linked to the Russian Wagner private military company (PMC) crashed on a runway in Mali.

The clip posted by several X (formerly Twitter) users, including aviation accounts, shows the Soviet-era Ilyushin Il-76 landing at Gao Airport in the West African country on September 23, overrunning the runway at high speed, before breaking into pieces and catching fire.

The fate of those onboard is not known, but there has been speculation that they included members of the Wagner Group, which has a presence in Mali. Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which claims to have links to Russia's security services, posted that “according to preliminary data, there could be mercenaries from PMC Wagner on board.”

https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-plane-explodes-mali-video-1830260

After the crash:

[AdmSmith]

When the cat’s away:

Mali: Former rebel group claims they are in ‘time of war’ with ruling junta
The Coordination of Azawad Movements, an alliance of Tuareg-dominated groups seeking autonomy or independence from the Malian state, called on all residents of the northern Azawad region to ‘go to the field to contribute to the war effort’.

In late August Mali’s junta had called on the armed groups in the north to renew dialogue and the ailing peace deal, amid fears of fresh hostilities after the UN peacekeeping force withdraws. The UN peacekeeping mission, known as Minusma, has until December 31 to exit Mali after a decade of struggling to stabilize the country’s security environment amid separatist and jihadist rebellions. The 13,000-person mission was ordered to withdraw earlier this year under the demand of Mali’s ruling junta, following the pullout of French troops in 2022.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/09/12/mali-former-rebel-group-claims-they-are-in-time-of-war-with-ruling-junta_6133155_124.html

The Fama (Mali Army) base in Bamba fallen into CMA, CSP_PSD hands. The same classic irregular warfare tactics applied: quick raid and exfil with spoils. Attention: bodies of dead soldiers visible.

https://twitter.com/SOFDoctor/status/1708591059905777774

[AdmSmith]

https://twitter.com/J_LuengoCabrera/status/1707777866484625901

[AdmSmith]

José Luengo-Cabrera
Central Sahel: conflict deaths As of September 2023, reported deaths are already the highest in a decade

https://twitter.com/J_LuengoCabrera/status/1711470252414861727

[AdmSmith]

11OCT2023
French troops have started leaving Niger more than two months after mutinous soldiers toppled the African country's democratically elected president, the military said Wednesday. Niger's state television broadcast images of a convoy leaving a base in Ouallam in the north, saying it was bound for neighboring Chad, to the east.

The departure comes weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will end its military presence in Niger and pull its ambassador out of the country as a result of the coup that removed President Mohamed Bazoum in late July. Some 1,500 French troops have been operating in Niger, training its military and conducting joint operations.

Analysts warn that France's withdrawal will leave a security vacuum that extremists could exploit.

“French forces might not have defeated these groups, but at least disrupted and limited their activities, said said Rida Lyammouri, senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a Moroccan-based think tank. With the French out of the picture, these will likely “expand to areas where French forces were providing support to Nigerien forces, especially on the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso,” Lyammouri said.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-troops-starting-withdraw-niger-july-coup-extremist-103885379

[AdmSmith]

21OCT2023 Niger junta says ousted President Mohamed Bazoum tried to escape

The former president attempted to flee in the night with his family, cooks and security, a military spokesman said. There were plans for the group to fly out on helicopters but the plan was foiled.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67166122

24OCT WION video report:
Niger's ousted president Mohamed Bazoum is being held in a secret location by the junta that seized power in the West African state. This is after Bazoum’s attempt to escape, failed. At the same time, withdrawal of French troops from the nation is half-complete.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k906zoXMRMA

24OCT 2023

As Niger's Foreign Minister is in Tehran, the European Union has introduced sanctions targeting individuals and entities linked to the military junta that seized power in July.

Foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, “The EU has from the very beginning condemned the coup d’état in Niger in the strongest terms.” The newly established framework empowers the EU to impose sanctions on those responsible for actions that it deems ‘jeopardize Niger's peace, stability, and security, undermine its constitutional order, or involve severe violations of human rights and international humanitarian law’. In doing so, the EU seeks to align and reinforce the actions taken by the West African regional organization ECOWAS.

Bakary Yaou Sangare, the Foreign Minister of Niger's military government, was also in Tehran. On Monday, he met with Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran's Foreign Minister. State news agency IRNA described the ousted Nigerien president, Mohamed Bazoum, as being aligned with the West and noted that he was removed from office by the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland.

The junta in Niger opposes the presence of French forces in Africa and aligns itself with Russia. In September, Russian military officials made a visit to Africa, signaling Russia's efforts to bolster its role on the continent.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202310249083

[AdmSmith]

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has blockaded multiple towns and villages in both Mali and Burkina Faso, and to a lesser degree in Niger, including large-scale embargoes on vital agricultural locations such as the Niono area in Mali and the Sourou valley in Burkina Faso.

https://twitter.com/ACLEDINFO/status/1717844130095640602

This report analyzes the operations and organizational structure of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel region of Africa, focusing on the group's engagement with illicit economies and tactical use of economic warfare. Specifically, the report emphasizes the central role of illicit economies in JNIM’s governance strategies, and in financing and resourcing the group's armed struggle. It also tracks how JNIM has evolved organizationally, with these internal changes dictating shifts in its involvement in regional illicit economies. These political and organizational changes, and the group's highly strategic engagement with illicit economies, have underpinned JNIM’s expansion into new geographies, its retention of influence in areas of control, and its resilience to disruption.

https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JNIM-Non-state-armed-groups-and-illicit-economiesin-wWest-Africa-GI-TOC-ACLED-October-2023.pdf

[AdmSmith]

source
https://twitter.com/J_LuengoCabrera/status/1722680571585774023

https://twitter.com/J_LuengoCabrera/status/1721895989538341117

[9YearLurker]

Niger has the misfortune of being oil and mineral-rich, and so constantly manipulated by foreign-power intel and military operations, in part by their funding of jihadis.

[AdmSmith]

Malian and Kremlin-funded Wagner Group forces will likely attempt to capture the vacated UN base in the Kidal regional capital in the coming weeks. Malian and Wagner forces have the conventional capabilities to clear the base but almost certainly lack the popular support, strategy, and sufficient troop numbers needed to hold the base and degrade the insurgency. Tuareg rebels and al Qaeda–linked militants will likely give priority to preemptively attacking Malian and Wagner positions in the Kidal region in the coming weeks to degrade security forces’ ability to launch an offensive.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-november-8-2023

[AdmSmith]

The junta in Niger asks Togo for help to mediate with ECOWAS. The situation in the country worsens as a result of the sanctions, and Russia's support with Wagner is less significant than expected.

https://twitter.com/FBussoletti/status/1722495483224989891

[AdmSmith]

Togo regularly attempts to position itself as a mediator in the region. In 2022, it took part in efforts to free 49 Ivorian soldiers held prisoner in Bamako, Mali, after being accused of being mercenaries.

https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/07/niger-military-regime-asks-togo-to-mediate//

[AdmSmith]

21NOV2023 Niger’s junta on Tuesday asked West Africa’s regional court to order the lifting of sanctions imposed on the country by its neighbors following a July coup in which the democratically elected president was deposed.

The junta asked the court to relax the sanctions pending the final judgement. But ECOWAS protested against their request. Francois Kanga-Penond, the ECOWAS lawyer, argued that the junta is not recognized under the bloc’s protocol and does not have the power to institute such a case in court. The court adjourned until Dec. 7.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nigers-junta-asks-west-africas-court-compel-neighbors-105069705

[AdmSmith]

This is from JAN2023:

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/fatalities-from-militant-islamist-violence-in-africa-surge-by-nearly-50-percent/

[AdmSmith]

Niger is learning from the Kremlin:

The head of Niger's military regime has repealed a law which criminalised the trafficking of migrants through the nation, a hub for those seeking to reach Europe via neighbouring Libya and Algeria, the government announced late Monday (27 November).

General Abdourahamane Tiani, on Saturday signed “an order repealing” the 2015 law “relating to the illegal trafficking of migrants”, said a statement from the government's secretariat general read out on public radio and television.

In addition, this law “did not take into account the interests of Niger and its citizens”, he added.

The new order also stipulates that convictions handed down under the 2015 law “shall be erased”.

Since the law came into force, and with financial support from the European Union, surveillance, including military surveillance, has been stepped up in the desert in the northern Agadez region, a major transit point for thousands of West African nationals seeking to emigrate to Europe via Algeria or Libya.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/migration/news/niger-coup-leader-repeals-law-against-migrant-traffickers/

[AdmSmith]

Niger's junta ends security agreements with EU, turns to Russia for defence cooperation

Niger's junta on Monday scrapped two key military agreements that the West African nation signed with the European Union to help fight the violence in Africa's Sahel region as the country's army leaders and a senior Russian defence official discussed military cooperation.

In a memo, Niger's foreign affairs ministry said the government has decided to “withdraw the privileges and immunities granted” under the EU Military Partnership Mission in Niger that was launched in February and consequently “has no legal obligation” related to that partnership. It also dismissed the EU Civilian Capacity-Building Mission established in 2012 to strengthen Niger's internal security sector, effectively revoking its approval for the missions.

In a rare visit on Sunday, a Russian delegation led by Russia's Deputy Minister of Defence Lounous-Bek Evkourov met with Niger's junta leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, and Minister of State for National Defense Salifou Mody. The two sides held more meetings on Monday to discuss military and defense issues. “At the centre of the discussions is the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense,” Niger's defense ministry said in a statement.

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20231204-niger-s-junta-ends-key-security-agreements-with-eu-turns-to-russia-for-defence-deal

[AdmSmith]

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger alliance faces uphill task

Security expert Adib Saani told DW that forming a new security pact between the three countries doesn't stand a chance of success. “It would be very difficult for the new confederation to achieve any results, owing to the fact that these countries are already reeling under pressure by terrorist groups,” Saani said.

“In Mali, the government is fighting three fronts. In Niger, we have seen the number of attacks spiraling out of control since the withdrawal of the French contingent. Burkina Faso, which is the second most impacted country by terrorism according to the terrorism global index for last year, is also fighting to hold onto the comparatively little land that they have or remaining,” Saani explained, adding that each of the three countries was busy carrying its own cross. “I don't think there is going to be anything meaningful coming out of it as they [Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso] are all already overstretched.”

Mutaru Mumuni Muktar, executive director of the West Africa Center for Counter Extremism, said he was not surprised by the posture and stance of the three junta-led nations. “In all the three countries, there's a strong anti-French sentiment and this has been building on over time,” Muktar told DW.

Under the new charter, the three countries pledged to fight terrorism and organized crime.

However, Muktar said the three nations lacked the capacity and infrastructure to accomplish their mission. “They do not have enough funding,” Muktar said, stressing that the three countries do not have a sustainable economic model to sustain their goal. “They do not have enough goodwill from the local population and other actors locally to deal with that. And so I don't see how far this would go…in dealing with violent extremism.”

The three nations remain suspended from the regional bloc ECOWAS and relations have deteriorated for months. Saani said these countries should prioritize restoring relations with ECOWAS to access the needed global support to fight the prevailing insecurity. “It [the insecurity in the Sahel] would only get worse; that is the bad news, and no amount of confederation can stop what is going on,” Saani added. Some 4.9 million people have already been displaced due to the current crisis.

https://www.dw.com/en/mali-burkina-faso-and-niger-alliance-faces-uphill-task/a-67632987

[AdmSmith]

The ECOWAS regional bloc has set up a committee of three leaders to negotiate with Niger's military junta on a transition to democratic rule.

West African leaders on Sunday demanded a “short” period of transition toward civilian rule in coup-hit Niger before they would ease economic sanctions on the country. At a summit in Nigeria's capital Abuja, the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) officially recognized the junta in power. They said a heads-of-state group from Benin, Togo and Sierra Leone would engage with Niger's regime's CNSP (National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland) leadership to decide on conditions for lifting sanctions.

“Based on the outcomes of the engagement by the committee of heads of state with the CNSP, the authority will progressively ease the sanctions imposed on Niger,” ECOWAS Commission President Omar Touray told the closing of the summit. “Failure by the CNSP to comply with the outcomes of engagement with the committee, ECOWAS shall maintain all sanctions,” he added.

https://www.dw.com/en/west-africa-leaders-set-terms-for-lifting-niger-sanctions/a-67684663