Posted on 09/04/2023 6:08:36 AM PDT by Cronos
Central Asian countries are attempting to curb Russian recruiting of their citizens for its war in Ukraine, while Moscow seeks to avoid stirring public discontent with another large wave of domestic mobilization.
So far this year, Kyrgyzstan has sentenced one citizen to 10 years in prison and detained another for allegedly serving as mercenaries. In Kazakhstan at the end of July, a prosecutor's office in a region bordering Russia warned citizens about the proliferation of online ads urging them to join the war, noting stiff legal penalties for doing so. This came a few months after Kazakhstan's National Security Committee said it was investigating 10 cases of citizens' alleged involvement in the war, without specifying which side they had taken.
Also this month, in response to a flood of goods branded with the Russian war symbols "V" and "Z," Kazakh prosecutors proposed banning the signs and making it a civil offense to distribute products bearing them, among other sensitive political symbols.
The recruitment and propaganda efforts -- and the pushback against them -- highlight increasingly uncomfortable ties between Russia and the former Soviet bloc states that have largely remained in its orbit. Reliant on Moscow economically and for security, they have avoided condemning the war. But they have also refrained from endorsing it, and abstained from United Nations votes on the matter, rather than siding with Russia.
Central Asian misgivings about Ukraine were apparent even before the full invasion started. Kazakhstan in 2020 handed down a three-year suspended sentence to a citizen who took part in noncombat activity for Russia in eastern Ukraine. The discomfort has only grown more acute since the invasion in February 2022, however.
Kazakhstan found itself in a particularly awkward position, having received help from Russia-led forces in putting down protests only about a month before the invasion started. Fears that Russia could turn on Kazakhstan linger, fueled by some prominent Russians who have cast doubt on its sovereignty. Meanwhile, Central Asia's largest economy saw an influx of Russians fleeing the so-called partial mobilization announced by Moscow last September, further complicating diplomatic ties.
That mobilization call prompted warnings from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to their nationals that joining the fight would be considered mercenary activity -- a criminal offense in all three.
The mobilization itself was a public relations disaster for the Kremlin. It drove hundreds of thousands of Russian men of conscription age (18 to 27 at the time) and reservists (under 35, 40 or 45 depending on their rank) out of the country to avoid going to war. It also left little doubt about heavy casualties at the front.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's government has since increased the upper limit of the conscription age to 30, and extended the call-up age for reservists by five years, while imposing tougher legislation and punishments on draft dodgers. Russian experts in exile say changes to the mobilization criteria were ushered through the Russian parliament before the summer recess to avoid having to announce another large wave of call-ups during the forthcoming election season.
"The war should go away from the public mind because any news from the front line frustrates voters and depresses them," Maxim Katz, a Russian public figure critical of Putin's regime, said on his YouTube channel. "The war is a source of endless downside, not benefits, for the political establishment and this logic suggests that there should not be any [reminder of the] war or any coercion of citizens to take part in it."
Putin is up for reelection in March 2024. No one doubts that he will win, given the lack of space for genuine opposition. Even a Kremlin spokesperson recently told The New York Times, "Our presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy." He went on to predict that "Mr. Putin will be reelected next year with more than 90% of the vote."
Nevertheless, experts say Moscow would prefer to avoid upsetting the population now.
Russian political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann told Deutsche Welle that the goal of the election is to shore up Putin's "domestic legitimacy," and that lawmakers will want "to be giving citizens carrots not sticks."
Drawing on Central Asian manpower -- including people who are already in Russia -- offers Moscow a way to ease the pressure. Last December, Uzbek-language recruiting ads on Moscow public transport caused a stir, although they were reportedly taken down.
Central Asians end up fighting for Russia in Ukraine for a number of reasons: they hold Russian citizenship and are called up; they are in Russian detention or prison and can buy their freedom by fighting in the war; or they are recruited as mercenaries by Russian private military companies or by businesses to work in occupied territories.
Russia also offers fast-track citizenship to foreigners who join the army and go to fight on the Russian side. Conversely, there are reports of draft legislation that would strip naturalized Russians of their citizenship if they refuse military service.
Over 559,000 Tajik citizens acquired Russian citizenship between 2016 and July 2023 alone, while 650,000 Kyrgyz citizens are estimated to hold Russian passports. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not allow their citizens to hold dual citizenship, so in theory, people who acquire Russian citizenship lose their Uzbek or Kazakh nationality.
Rasul Arin, a political scientist at Almaty's Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, suggested motivations can also include exposure to Russian propaganda, nostalgic feelings for the Soviet Union or simply mercantile aims.
On the other hand, he said the reason Kazakhstan is going after citizens for mercenary activity is that they "pose a potential threat to national security."
"These people can hold a weapon and it's not clear where their loyalties lie, if they are paid, they may turn it against Kazakhstan," he told Nikkei Asia.
Over in Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek-based independent political analyst Denis Berdakov said the authorities might prosecute Kyrgyz citizens or dual nationals, but they cannot prosecute those who become Russian citizens and revoke their Kyrgyz citizenship. "If Kyrgyz citizens are coerced to go to the war zone, then the country's embassy is able to offer protection to them, and for those who hold dual citizenship but do not want to go to the war, the solution is to return to Kyrgyzstan and wait it out there," he said.
"The solution for those who did intentionally go to the war is to never go back to Kyrgyzstan, acquire Russian citizenship and just stay in Russia."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Kazakhstan-woos-over-400-Western-firms-exiting-Russia
Kazakhstan woos over 400 Western firms exiting Russia
Don’t ever live in a ‘stan......
What a friggin rat’s nest Russia is. And talk about “proxy wars”.
The neighboring countries are dictatorships installed and propped up by Putin, while Russia takes their youth to attack the next victim.
Same holds true for America.
looks like folks just don’t want to kill or die for pooty. He has to use coercion or force.
Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland. They will never surrender.
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