Trump Isn't Winning Black Voters, He's Losing White Voters

Newsweek ^ | September 12, 2024 | BRYON ALLEN & AMANDA IOVINO

[hcmama]

......" In the lead-up to the 2020 election, an Emerson poll suggested that Trump was poised to win one out of every five Black voters, only to secure a mere 8 percent of the Black vote that year."

...So, why do some on the Right insist on peddling this pipe dream? Beyond the allure of clicks, this narrative distracts Republicans from far more compelling evidence showing Trump losing support among White voters....

Our team analyzed every poll with publicly available crosstabs featured in RealClearPolitics in the month of August. Seven out of the nine studies showed Trump performing well below his 2020 levels with White voters. An average of all nine polls found Trump's lead over Biden with White voters has shrunk from 17 points in 2020 to just 9 points now. Interestingly, the same Fox News poll Trump's surrogates push because they like its African American numbers has him up by just four points with Whites.

Upon closer examination, the data reveal that college-educated white men, in particular, are among those shifting away from Trump. This group was a key swing voting bloc in 2021 and 2022, and evidence is starting to point toward that trend continuing. There is also data showing Trump's grip over some White voters without college degrees has weakened."

[hcmama]

This analysis is by two GOP pollsters who appear to have systematically studied the available polling data.

[Mr. K]

Sure it is. I trust ‘pollsters’

[JoSixChip]

LOL You desperation is very enjoyable. Trump has already won the primary, it’s over.

[hcmama]

I’m betting you trust those showing Trump 40 points ahead of Desantis, right?

[1Old Pro]

Hopefully the Dems will believe this garbage and keep Biden (the lamb) on the ballot.

[MNDude]

Impossible to know what really happened unless anyone believes Joe Biden is really the most popular candidate in history.

[hcmama]

And apparently, he’s on his way to losing the general— big time.

[mewzilla]

If this were the case Deep State wouldn’t have to steal elections, would it...

[dforest]

Talk about trashy. GOP pollsters, Newsweak, and your Dwarf.

[dforest]

Well yeah, because DeSantis is a real dud.

[patriot torch]

All that’s missing is the unbiased response from Chris Christy.

[packagingguy]

Who pray tell on the Republican side could possible get more votes than Trump?

There isn’t one. Not that there aren’t some good candidates, it’s just that none of them are even remotely competitive.

[SoConPubbie]

I’m betting you trust those showing Trump 40 points ahead of Desantis, right?

Have you actually heard DeSantis speak?

He sounds like a whiney 14 year-old girl!

And that stunt on the debate stage where he looked around to see which way the wind was blowing before raising his hand?

Those polls showing 40+ Trump leading are inaccurate, the numbers are actually much higher!

[Carl Vehse]

Newsweak.

‘Nuf said.

[King_Corey]

NewsWEAK, yeah, right. I don’t trust the government, I don’t trust the media, and I really don’t trust pollsters, and “Republican” pollsters are as good as far as I can throw them.

[TornadoAlley3]

Newsweak

[FlingWingFlyer]

(((YAWN))) A couple Zero Geez “hangin’ out” and writing garbage.

[SoConPubbie]

And apparently, he’s on his way to losing the general— big time.

Another of the "Big-Lie" Narratives being pushed by DeSanctimonious Trolls!

[JoSixChip]

And apparently, he’s on his way to losing the general

That's what you losers were saying in 2016 and 2020. Trump won by millions more votes in 2020 then he did in 2016. So you have no clue what you are even talking about.

[hcmama]

Trump's own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, identified Trump's reduced support among white voters as a key reason for his loss in 2020.

The point these pollsters are making is twofold: one, the idea that Trump is going to make up this deficit with minority voters is fanciful, and two, the problem is worse now than it was in 2020