I don’t think Manchin has any ‘draw’ outside of WV. Here in WV running as an ‘independent’, he would harm the Rat vote. He might drive it down to Vegetarian Party levels.
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For some reason, Conservatives love the myth that Manchin is really a Republican. They ignore decades of voting and $20 Trillion dollars.
He has some kind of draw. They fall for his tired old scam.