Posted on 10/04/2023 9:54:35 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
It has been three weeks since a Ukrainian attack seriously damaged a Russian submarine and a Russian landing vessel which were both in dry dock at a port in Crimea.
A major incident occurred at the Sevmorzavod shipyard in temporarily occupied Sevastopol last night. Witnesses observed a number of violent explosions that continued for some time, followed by a major fire. Russian sources said that a large landing ship Minsk and a submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" had been struck. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian GUR thanked Ukrainian pilots for their great work.
Russian sources claim that the shipyard was attacked with 10 cruise missiles, 7 of which have been intercepted. The rest have obviously found their targets. Some Russians also spoke about unmanned water surface drones that attempted to break through to the shipyard but were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/iXaK645KoU
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 13, 2023
After that, Ukraine sent another strike into the building which was the headquarters for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Moment UK-Supplied Storm Shadow Missiles Fired By Ukrainian Forces Hit Russia's Black Sea Fleet HQ In Sevastopol, Crimea.
This is only the beginning.
The UK is giving Ukraine missiles to rip apart what it considers its own land. Its own people will be next. pic.twitter.com/oxthGSaCcb— Buadhach (@Siiktor) September 27, 2023
Ukraine claimed that strike had killed a Russian admiral in that strike but in fact he had survived.
Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, is apparently not dead, according to this photo released by the MOD today, despite Ukraine’s claims to have killed him last week.
pic.twitter.com/ZJ3Bfbwzbf— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 26, 2023
In any case, all of this follows’s Russia’s biggest loss of all in the area, the sinking of the flagship Moskva:
This appears to be the first, unconfirmed video of the Moskva, Russia’s now-sunken Black Sea flagship, after it was hit by Ukrainian missiles.
It’s three seconds long and the last two are someone saying: “You f***ng idiot! What the f*** are you doing?”
— max seddon (@maxseddon) April 18, 2022
After all of that it’s probably no surprise that the Black Sea Fleet has decided it’s time to relocate.
Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.
Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection, according to Western officials and satellite images verified by naval experts. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The move represents a remarkable setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the opening shots in his attempt to take control of Ukraine. His full-scale invasion of last year has now boomeranged, forcing the removal of ships from a port that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great…
James Heappey, U.K. minister of state for the armed forces, called the dispersal of the ships “the functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet” at a conference in Warsaw this week.
Strategically, this is a good move for Russia as the ships will be safer somewhere else and can still fire cruise missiles into Ukraine. But as a matter of pride, this is another embarrassment for Putin. Once again, his forces need to redeploy farther from the front.
This is made worse by the fact that Putin has framed Crimea, in the PR that he has been spinning internally in Russia for the past decade, as the spiritual home of Russia.
In December 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood in the middle of the Kremlin’s St. George’s Hall, delivering his annual address to the country’s Federal Assembly. Nine months removed from his formal annexation of Crimea, the Russian president unspooled a historical overview of Crimea’s supposed importance to the Russian body politic.
Crimea, as Putin claimed, was far more than simply a wayward chunk of rightfully Russian land. Rather, the peninsula was the “spiritual source” of the entire Russian nation—a province that presented “invaluable civilizational and even sacral importance” for all Russians. The language mirrored Putin’s annexation announcement that March, when he’d claimed that “in [Russians’] hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia.” As Putin saw it, Crimea stood as the Temple Mount of Russia—as a Russian “holy land.” And this was, Putin assured his listeners in December, “exactly how we will treat it from now on and forever.”…
In the face of continued drone attacks, long-range missile fires, sabotage operations, and annihilation of military assets across Crimea, Russians have hardly treated the Ukrainian peninsula as some kind of sacred land. Rather than rushing to protect Crimea, Russians have instead begun fleeing the region en masse. Rather than seeing Russians lining up to enlist to aid the Kremlin’s defense of the peninsula, Moscow continues mooting the potential of a second, and far broader, forced mobilization. And rather than resulting in any kind of nuclear conflagration, Russians’ subdued reaction to the continued bombardment of Crimea has dissolved Putin’s claims that the peninsula is some kind of special, sacrosanct land. As McGill University professor Maria Popova recently posted on X (formerly known as Twitter), “Crimea isn’t special, let alone a red line.”
Having built Crimea up in this way, having to pull his fleet back doesn’t look good.
Ukraine War
Black Sea Fleet begins its withdrawal
After successful attacks on Russian ships and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sabaatopol, the Russian Navy withdrew its ships from the city's port and moved them to Novorossiysk (a Russian port city) and Feodosi (still in Crimea).
Apparently the Russians are scared by the threat of a Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missile attack.
#Ukraine #ukrainewar #guerraucrania #guerraucrânia #ucrania #guerradaucrania #guerradaucrânia
pic.twitter.com/R9kaXQOApS— ACONTECENDO (@Acontece_ndo) October 4, 2023
Hooray. This brings the war within measurable distance of its end.
In contrast to the sedate, peaceful kind of explosions.
Regards,
The Ruzzians are retreating. Deal with it.
There is no before and after in these images. And there is rather a lot of mention of “Russian sources” which don’t all, or even many, seem to be RF MoD.
Regardless of that, I personally do know something of orbital asset imagery, and the pictures of some days or weeks ago of drydock sub and surface ship damage after some claimed attack were bogus. I saw very little if any significant damage in those images. I did see shadows cast in different angles in different parts of the image.
Somewhat suggestive of images being stitched together with a Gaussian blur over the relevant pixels. That might have been done with images from different points in time, but my recall is the angles were not very east/west pure in that regard. My read is they were at different latitudes.
bkmk
Maybe, maybe not.
Naval surface warfare is pretty much a waste of time in this conflict, especially given the bizarre rules of engagement on this insane war.
The Black Sea is like shooting ducks in a pond, especially now that the Brits and the French seem to be giving the Ukrainian forces stand off anti ship weapons to do just that.
The Russians may be getting ready to retaliate in kind and they are withdrawing their ships to protect them from destruction.
The real target here is commercial shipping which is Ukraine's lifeline and the Russians may be getting ready to up the stakes and cut that lifeline off.
Ships are not the tool of choice for this job - maritime strike aircraft and submarines are. The Ukraine has little ability to defend against these assets, nor do they have the ability to attack these assets.
Unless NATO countries intervene and send NATO crewed defense systems which would be a huge escalation.
Given Russia's recent nationwide nuclear civil defense test and their shutting off of gas and diesel sales to the West, it's not unreasonable to assume that Russia may just be getting ready to go on the offensive in Ukraine and cutting off commercial shipping to Ukraine is part of the plan.
Counteroffensive is getting visible and undeniable results.
If Ukrainian military can drone attack Moscow, they can attack anywhere the Russian Black Sea Fleet can flee to.
If is good that Russia’s Navy is saying good bye to Crimea. That is a significant event in the redeployment out of Ukraine of one branch of the Russian military. It sends a strong message to the other branches of the military.
as long as the snakes retreat, that’s a good sign
Ukraine’s drone counter-strikes are already effective!
I personally do know something of orbital asset imagery, and the pictures of some days or weeks ago of drydock sub and surface ship damage after some claimed attack were bogus. I saw very little if any significant damage in those images.
—
Released Russian photos show the sub was completely destroyed contrary to your expert analysis.
Russian Submarine Shows Massive Damage After Ukrainian Strike
Photos of major damage to a Russian Navy submarine attacked while in dry dock in Crimea point to the boat being a complete write-off.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-submarine-shows-massive-damage-after-ukrainian-strike
I notice you found your Shift key for ukraine.
well something must have scared the Russian Navy enough to get them to move their ships away
—
2 ships totaled 4 severely damaged
"Ukrainian soldiers are being DRUGGED and forced to fight" Ex-CIA Larry Johnson | Redacted News
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson: "If you go social media, you see row after row after row of Ukrainian flags fluttering after freshly dug graves. Thousands of them. You don't see that in Russia. So, right there, it tells you right away that the causalities are in Ukraine.
The average age of the soldiers fighting on the frontlines for Ukraine is over 40 years old. That means you might have one or two that are 17 and 18 but you have a lot more that are over the age of 40. That speaks to a manpower loss.
"To put the losses in context, right now it is estimated that Ukraine as lost over 500,000 men killed in action. During WW II, the British, the United Kingdom, it's entire killed in action in both Europe, Africa and the pacific, was 345,000. That was after six years of war."
Maybe because the Russians aren't allowed to post any images that might be deemed "unfavorable."
I know, I know! That's unthinkable. But it's something that we have to consider.
Regards,
RE: To put the losses in context, right now it is estimated that Ukraine as lost over 500,000 men killed in action.
If true ( which I tend to doubt as this is from a FORMER analyst), That’s still a fraction of those killed at the holodomor in the 1930’s.
Was killing half a million Ukranian men worth the effort?
You really remind me of humblegunner.
“You really remind me of humblegunner.”
He was actually really sweet in pm. Just had a thing about bloggers and vanities...and once in a while he’d go after me for posting a vanity.
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