“They’ll declare him a flight risk and make him wear an ankle monitor during the campaign.”
The entire strategy of tying Trump up in litigation has completely backfired. The expectation clearly was they’d get a conviction on something and then the states or the RNC would declare him ineligible to run (that pesky Constitution would not allow the Feds to do so). The overwhelming majority of Republicans and at least half the independents see the prosecutions as political persecution and are greatly opposed to the country becoming a banana republic. As a result with every indignity Trump’s popularity grows.
The dramatic increases in his support from the black community must be particularly galling for the Dem strategists who have no clue about what anyone outside the elite circles in DC, Manhattan, Chicago, San Francisco, and LA think. As you suggested, put an ankle bracelet on Trump or put him in a jail cell and his popularity will only increase. At this point the majority of the average American people are totally disgusted with the system and the elites who control it for their own benefit. Increasingly it is apparent the common people are looking forward to going to the polls and sending a message.
At this point, the biggest threat to Trump is his own mouth and behavior. None of the GOP candidates are a threat to his winning the nomination at this point in the game. During the general election season the threats are the Biden replacement (assuming there is one), corruption in the form of ballot integrity, and the GOP’s ability to match the Democrat ground game. Having the RINO’s at least give lip service to supporting Trump after the convention would be a help, but it is probably something he can’t count on. Romney, Christie, Paul Ryan, Murkowski, a few other Senators (McConnell perhaps), and possibly Haley and the Bush family may announce they can’t vote for Trump.
Watch also for a surprise on the Dem side. Newsom at the top of the Dem ticket with Haley in the VP slot in order to appeal to moderate Republicans, independents, and people of color. What about Newsom and Condolezza Rice?
There is still a possibility of another pandemic or huge false flag event resulting in the election being canceled and martial law declared. 2024 should be a fascinating year.
Assume Trump gets the nomination and wins. He still hasn’t demonstrated he will be able to assemble a team of highly energized and committed professionals for appointment to key positions and get them through confirmation by the Senate. Without help, the deep state bureaucracies in Congress and the executive branch will tie him down and roadblock his agenda just as they did during his first term.
Very good analysis top-to-bottom, Mr. Soul (homage to Buffalo Springfield there) and I agree with it all.
“possibility of another pandemic or huge false flag event” — Or possibly (and maybe even more likely) a real war going seriously hot because “You cannot change war-time presidents.”
Look at the swift sea change in Army recruiting in the past week. They’d dropped the woke crap and started recruiting white boy cannon fodder. As we know, Southern white boys enlist at higher rates than other parts of the country.
Good points and certainly pertinent. You did not mention, however, that Trump learned quite a bit during his first term including how to better identify professionals who are less likely to betray him.
Perhaps more importantly, although some such as yourself believe his "mouth and behavior" are a liability, who do we have on the bench with the guts and ability to better confront and prevail over the anti-MAGA's?