I think so too. Putin went in thinking he could cut off Kiev immediately and end the war. He sent too few special forces and should have dropped inserted operatives beforehand, had them isolate areas for special forces to secure land from Belarus to Kiev, then done a bum-rush from Belarus.
It would have saved 500k Ukrainians.
If Kyiv fell, the government would have moved to Lviv. Then they'll fight a guerilla war and lose Kyiv in less than a year.
That would also have woken Western Europe from its stupor on military power like a slap in the face. A slow victory benefits the Russians more than a zerg rush would have.