Posted on 01/16/2024 6:59:47 PM PST by DoodleBob
Beware, China. And Taiwan, and Asia, and America. Just after the holidays in 2022, a team from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a hefty report last year entitled The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan.
It is jam-packed with insight. One hopes it finds avid readership among the uniformed services, their political masters, and Congress.
The report details the design and results of an unclassified wargame set in the Taiwan Strait in 2026, toward the end of the much-discussed “Davidson window,” which postulates a Chinese attack on Taiwan by 2027. The game overseers ran twenty-four iterations, changing different variables—political and strategic decisions, alliance politics, strategy and operations, weaponry and sensors available to the combatants—to identify cross-cutting themes, and to compile findings and recommendations applicable across a variety of likely circumstances.
On the whole the CSIS game struck a more upbeat note than games conducted by the armed forces themselves, which tend to prophesy bitter defeat. The First Battle of the Next War observes that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) generally lost or fought to a stalemate under most plausible scenarios. The coauthors attribute the disparity between think-tank and Pentagon games to the fact that the CSIS hosts factored history into the game’s conduct alongside more traditional statistical methods.
Bringing in non-quantitative measures is wise. Military sage Carl von Clausewitz warns against trying to reduce a messy, complex affair like warfare to rules and formulas. Relying overwhelmingly on the probability of a kill during an exchange of fire employing certain weapons and sensors, as Pentagon games are wont to do, feels like flouting Clausewitzian counsel.
President Retard says he doesn’t care about Taiwan and gave China the green light
With all our recruitment issues, let em have it.
Would the US “letting” Taiwan fall to PRC be the equivalent of “letting” West Berlin fall to East Germany?
Nonsense, All the US has to to is one missile on Three Gorges dam and it’s over—tell them in advance...
Embargo all Chinese shipping at the staits of Malacca. Three destroyers could interdict oil and food.
3 months later all the cars stop. 6 months later the lights go off. 12 months later 100 million Chinese starve to death.
First Taiwan, then Japan, then pacific to Philippines, then South America, then Africa by then we will have no medicine or working technology.
Well, it will be very bad indeed. A helluva lot of Chinese will die (as they did in Korea), but what will the outcome be?
It’s insane.
Taiwan does not threaten China in any way. (In fact just the opposite).
Only madmen of Hitler level would commit mass murder over this.
“ Would the US “letting” Taiwan fall to PRC be the equivalent of “letting” West Berlin fall to East Germany?”
Morally.
Economically, politically, strategically it’d be much worse.
He, obama, thinks a wartime prezzy/puppet is a garrenteed reelection.
Come on, those damns are three hours flight time form the Sea of Japan.
Before we all wet our nappies lets remember that China can’t even win a border skirmish with India. 🙄
NBC also did a war-game last year with Centre for New American Security.
China used missiles to hit Pearl, Everett and Sand Diego very early in the game.
And the US could not stop the invasion.
No matter what pervert joe and his band of merry (gay?) communists progs say about how Taiwan doesn’t really matter, there is one crystal-clear fact already proven to be true.
That little outfit that none of the DC commies will whisper it’s name.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited.
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Pervert joe would like it just fine if his boss in china captured it and begin to play “Chip Nazi.”
Want a new car? Nope.
How about replacing that 8 year old pc with a new one? Nope.
Check out at the grocery store? Bring your own abacus.
Controler chips for what is left of our military? HELL no.
On and on, moving us back to the ‘50s.
Yes sir, joe-the-pervert and his herd of trough feeders will like that just fine.
On-shore chip plants will not be able to catch up in less than 3-4 years.
By then? Too late.
.
Bkmk
About as bad as when the German Army marched into Austria over rose petals thrown by grateful Austrians.
This US-China war? That dog won’t hunt.
I predict that the theater won’t be the theater.
The U.S. and China will quickly move to wholesale civilizational struggle. Bots, viruses (biological and software), mainland EMP strikes, guerilla war on American streets, surrogate proxy wars, fomenting revolution behind enemy lines, blockades, drone swarms, etc.
Will be full civilizational struggle to the death.
How much is Taiwan worth to Xi?
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