Posted on 01/23/2024 6:49:31 PM PST by Mount Athos
Rumors are making the rounds in Kiev that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will fire the head of his armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhny.
Zelensky and Zaluzhny have been at odds for some time. The excuse is likely to be losses in and around Avdeevka, which is a Ukrainian military stronghold just north of Donetsk. The rumor says that Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, will replace Zaluzhny.
Field reports show that the Russians have advanced in the southern part of the town, knocking out numerous trenches and fortifications, with the Russian operation gaining momentum and strength as new troops are poured into the fight.
There is little doubt that Russia will be successful. While the Ukrainian army may be able to delay the Russians, it lacks any ability to stop them cold. If Ukraine tries to bring in extra forces to bolster its chances, it will open itself up to Russian threats elsewhere along the line of contact.
Avdeevka, no matter its importance, is just an excuse for Zelensky. He needs loyal people around him as his situation becomes more precarious. His European and American allies, who still say they want to give him what he wants in arms and financial aid, understand that Ukraine can’t stand up to Russian military pressure.
That is why Europe is now in a panic and Washington is searching for a new policy. Europe believes that if Russia wins in Ukraine, as now seems likely, then Europe will be threatened by Russia, for which it is not prepared.
NATO’s chiefs, as well as politicians in Germany, Sweden, Holland, Estonia, Poland and elsewhere, are clamoring for strengthening NATO’s defenses.
The nearly five-month-long NATO exercise, starting in late January, is an effort to demonstrate to Russia that NATO will stand and fight. But the exercise may also show the Russians just what they need to do if a conflict does come.
NATO’s alleged 90,000-soldier exercise has been given the lofty name Steadfast Defender and is supposed to reinforce the notion of NATO reliability. The Russians, meanwhile, have canceled their big military exercise, known as Zapad (West), a message understood by Europe. Russia says it must focus on training its new soldiers, sailors and airmen.
Europe has little to fall back on, as its security is acutely dependent on the United States. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and perhaps well before, the Europeans have focused on social spending and have invested little in defense programs.
Worse still, many of them have sent their strategic reserve war materials to Ukraine, leaving them with empty shelves and warehouses.
In Germany, which was supposed to rebuild its armed forces under the slogan Zeitenwende (Turning Point), the government has been raiding the US$108 billion fund to give money and arms to Ukraine.
While Russia appears to have ordered its defense manufacturing companies to work additional shifts to produce armaments, little has been done in Europe or the United States to substantially move forward production.
Instead, there are labor shortages, supply chain issues and slow procurement orders. Meanwhile, the US has unloaded most of its critical war-fighting supplies on Ukraine, leaving great uncertainty if America could rescue Europe, even if it wanted to do so.
Putting aside the credibility, or lack thereof, of any imminent Russian threat to Europe, the US is changing its policy and is recognizing that it cannot win a conventional war against Russia. (Which also means that it can’t win a conventional war against China, maybe not even Iran or the minuscule Houthis.)
All of this is clearly visible in Iraq where US bases and installations are regularly bombed by Iranian militias, following orders from Tehran. Their goal is for US troops to leave Iraq and Syria and, accomplishing that, demonstrate that the US is unreliable and unfit to depend upon.
The new Ukraine policy has been emerging over recent months. If understood correctly, the policy is designed to deal with the new reality that Ukraine will lose the war and Ukraine’s government may need to evacuate Kiev. Putting Budanov in effective control, including for the relocation of Ukraine’s capital, probably to Lviv, is the bedrock of the policy.
Operationally, the policy will likely be to use special operations, assassinations, bombings and any other means, including possibly blowing up a nuclear reactor, to punish the Russians and keep them off balance.
Zelensky is already setting the stage by saying Russia will blow up a nuclear reactor. The Russians are no doubt keenly aware that the target will be a reactor in western Russia and it will be Ukrainian saboteurs who undertake the mission.
For Washington, there are three imperatives. The first is to be able to keep the war going and to keep demanding money from Congress. This is a hard act because if Ukraine is collapsing it will be hard to get buy-in for a losing proposition.
The reality is likely to be that the Biden administration does not expect that Congress will fork over more billions, especially if it is all but certain to go down a rat hole. What they want to do is blame Congress and the Republicans for the loss of Ukraine.
The second imperative is to keep a pro-Western Ukrainian government functioning, even if it has to abandon Kiev. It also means that the current government has to survive politically: if a coup d’etat happens, then all bets are off.
So Washington needs to prevent a political breakdown. This is a tall order because Ukrainians are understandably unhappy, in fact miserable, as young and old men are forced to fight a losing war and many of them don’t come home.
The third imperative is to keep Russia out of Europe, meaning to keep European countries from cutting their own deals with Moscow. As Kiev goes, so goes Europe and NATO.
If the Russians can put a pro-Russian government in Kiev, the Europeans will need to find a practical solution to living with Moscow. The key actor is Germany and the current German government won’t talk to Russia, at least not now. But that may change in the near future.
If Ukraine falls, Germany will need to change its policy. The easiest way for its government to change direction is to blame the United States for something, such as the Nord Stream pipeline’s destruction. That would open the door to a conversation with Putin.
The war is lost without zucchini
That way they’ll win?
Biden needs to ask for an armistice.
Russia has most of the territory that is mainly pro-Russian and might accept a request from Biden to stop the fighting.
The Russian deaths each week probably are over 1,000.
In Germany, which was supposed to rebuild its armed forces under the slogan Zeitenwende (Turning Point), the government has been raiding the US$108 billion fund to give money and arms to Ukraine.
I just posted this on another thread.
You can expect Zaluzhnyi to be sacked by Z any day. Rumor has it that Z’s loyal intelligence chief, Budanov will replace him. I think this is gearing up for more insurgent or terror type attacks on civilians. The Chechen model from Beslan School era. It’s nearly all Z is capable of now.
Could work out that way, or given the history of what happens in dictatorships it could also go the other way aroud. But, ok, give it a whirl and see what happens. Nothing to lose except maybe start WWIII,
I’d take that trade. It’d save lot of Ukrainian lives.
I remember Beslan. I remember when they caught some guys later on.
First time I saw a dude get his head cut off.
Hitler fired plenty of his commanding officers. Will Zelensky put himself in charge of the military like Hitler did?
Kimdotcom on x
There are whispers from Kyiv that Zaluzhny will be fired and CIA favorite Kyrylo Budanov is taking over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If it’s true here’s why:
The real President of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, needs someone crazy enough to blow up a nuclear power plant and Budanov is her guy. She needs a pretext for NATO troops to enter Ukraine, urgently. Russia is winning the US proxy war and Nuland is running out of options.
In her deranged mind the best way to get NATO involved is to harm Europeans with a radioactive cloud from a nuclear power plant that Russia allegedly destroyed. The Propaganda media would sell the story and suppress the truth as it has done throughout the war.
If Budanov executes Nuland’s dirty plan he would become the next Zelenskyy. That’s her promise and his ambition.
Zaluzhny would leave a vacuum. Ukrainian soldiers are burned out. Assistance from the West has dried up, temporarily. The window for Putin to end this war on Russias terms is now. Expect a major push.
“If Ukraine falls, Germany will need to change its policy. The easiest way for its government to change direction is to blame the United States for something, such as the Nord Stream pipeline’s destruction. That would open the door to a conversation with Putin. “
Yup. The EU break with the USA will be when Ukraine is defeated. The USA will then have proven to not be able to protect Europe, and they blew up the pipeline to boot.
The comedian can morph into anybody.....one minute he’s Churchill....then Washington.
When he grows a foot and puts on a top hat, he’ll be Lincoln firing McClellan and looking for a Ukrainian Grant.
Budanov has no experience as a general. He’d be a glorified political commissar.
Veryplausible
Budanov seems to be a stone-cold sociopath, ok for military intel, unimaginable as a military commander …but definitely clay another demented sociopath like Nuland can work with
Zelinsky should take the general’s place. Having comics run the country will become a trend.
Zelensky already commands the military,
It is at his orders that the Uke military endlessly feeds men to die in unwinnable situations like Bakhmut and now, Krynky. A hopeless misnamed “ bridgehead” that is/was supposed to keep Western hopes and weapons flowing.
The generals like Syrsky that court political favor, follow his orders despite their military training …Zaluzhny has reportedly pushed back on meatgrinder insanity ordered by Il Duce Zelensky…..but apparently…has little real authority.
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