Posted on 02/26/2024 7:42:01 PM PST by DoodleBob
I’ve been taking the under on Nikki Haley for several weeks now and I’ve been wrong every time. So I looked under the hood on the South Carolina results and what I see is a signal that Trump is weaker than he looks.
Let’s start with the exit polls.
Haley kept it close: independent voters made up 22 percent of the electorate and she won them 62-37. South Carolina is an open primary, so this was a case of independents showing up to vote against Trump in a meaningless contest. That’s bad news for him.
Among people who thought the economy was either “good” (Haley +73) or “not so good” (Haley +1) Haley fought Trump to better than a draw.
This matters because Biden’s theory of the case is that the economy is good and people are going to recognize that. If Biden can even get voters to “ehhh, the economy is not so good,” suddenly voters are much less receptive to Trump.
Haley beat Trump by +9 with voters with a college degree. That’s expected, but still a point of weakness.
Not expected: Among married Republicans Trump was only +3. In recent elections, married voters have been a huge area of strength for Republicans—Trump was +7 among marrieds in 2020. South Carolina shows us that half of a core Republican bloc is turning out to vote against Trump even when his opponent has no chance of winning. Not great for him.
But it keeps getting worse: Nearly a third of the voters said that Trump isn’t fit to serve as president and Haley won them by Saddam Hussein numbers.
Last data point, which is something I’ve been fixated on since I did The Focus Group a couple weeks ago: Among voters who believe that Trump lost in 2020, his numbers are ghastly.
Important to note: 36 percent of the electorate said that yes, Biden won fair and square. And with those people, Haley was +64.1
I am growing convinced that forcing Trump to claim that he actually won in 2020—and belaboring that point over and over and over again—is a key to victory in 2024. When people see Trump lying about something they know isn’t true, it pits him against them, makes the relationship between Trump and the voter adversarial. The voters say, “Wait a minute, this guy is trying to scam me.”
And Trump is trapped because he’s so committed to the Big Lie that he can’t back down from it now.
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Side note: Long time readers know that I don’t do hopeium here. I might be the most fatalistic guy at The Bulwark. But I’m realistic, too, and the numbers here demonstrate very clearly that Trump has a couple of giant soft spots that can be exploited with voters.
If you want measured analysis—not cheerleading, but not doomscrolling either—then you should be with us this election. We don’t play both-sides games. We don’t platform bad actors. We see the world clearly and we fight for liberal democracy. That’s the job.
Come ride with us.
Yawn. Whatever.
Ask the Koch brothers how well they think Nikki is doing.
Here is how I see it:
Trump may not be the answer. There may be no answer, and things may go to Hell under him.
But while it is possible Trump is not the answer-he sure as Hell is not the problem.
And I will crawl on broken glass to ensure we give ourselves the best way out of this, if a way does still exist.
And that way is definitely not the Left, and it is not the RINOs or Globalists.
Nikki Haley is exposing her true colors.
Bill Kristol/NeoCon talking points.
60% is ..... BAD”
Riiiiiiight
He’s been north of 60% for a long time now.
Largest primary electoral win margin in the history of the state.
Largest margin of loss ever experienced by a candidate in the state.
Most delegates ever won by a candidate in the state.
She literally did this all in her HOME STATE!
Quickest time ever to see an election called.
Talk about being completely delusional!
Eggs are $5 a dozen.
This all derives from a desperate hope that politics has not really, truly, been redefined by Trump.
Populism means a political career is something to be held in contempt. These Never Trump types can’t possibly look in the mirror and declare to themselves that they are worthy of contempt. They think they are noble and if only they can erase Trump, then everything will go back to what it was and all these Trump voters will gravitate where they belong, supporting self declared elites.
Independents or dems or RINOs or whoever.
This guy is insane. Looking at all his numbers, you would think Nikita won big.
Baris tore this apart on his show.
There is zero weakness and Nick Knack Paddywhack Give a Uke a Bomb is a closet DemoKKKrat, the evil skankchop.
I quit reading when I read “it was a case of independents showing up to vote against Trump”. In an open primary the Dems didn’t turn out in their own primary, they turned out against Trump in the Republican one. Now count those Dems with Independents and Nimrata still lost.
At least a third of her voters were democrats who will vote for Biden. Most of them in the Charleston area were rich elites descended from slave owners according to Rich Baris’s analysis.
Flawed as he is, I’m betting Trump will survive his victory in SC.
Everyone acts as if all independents lean left!
They don’t!
There are many who are independents who no longer feel like their party supports their views, I am one of them.
I sure as hell will vote for Trump because he has proven to be a fighter and loves the country.
All this talk about Trump losing independents is .. CRAP!
😴😴😴😴😴😴
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