$50 to FR says it's Newsom/Whitmer. Deal?
Payable after Labor Day.
I have no clue at all.
That was my frustration with your post.
Who knows what current events will take place between now and November.
I don’t think the Democrats have the slightest clue what they are going to do about Biden.
This is about to be a wacko year.
Anything could happen.
Anything.
I want to continue my rant.
2024 reminds me of 1968.
Just a reminder of how wacko that year was.
—LBJ was President. At this point in the year the consensus was he would be re-elected even though he just squeaked by Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary.
—Let us freeze time. Richard Nixon is the likely Republican nominee. George Wallace was running as a third party candidate.
—The White House did polling and realized that LBJ was in deep trouble in Wisconsin and other states. LBJ stuns the nation with a radio address announcing he would not seek re-election. This was in March, 1968.
—At that point Robert Kennedy entered the race.
—George Wallace was shot and badly injured on May 15.
—Robert Kennedy was assassinated on June 5 on the night he won the California primary. At the moment before he was shot he was considered the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and the White House.
—Let us freeze time again. After the RFK assassination the Democratic nomination was wide open with Eugene McCarthy and George McGovern having won the most primaries.
—The Republican convention nominates Richard Nixon in early August.
——The Democratic convention nominates Hubert Humphrey in late August. He was won no primaries. There is wild rioting in the streets outside the convention and total chaos on the convention floor for days.
—Richard Nixon wins the election in November by 1% over Hubert Humphrey.
Conclusion: Nothing was obvious. Nothing was predictable. The world in February had nothing to do with the world in November.
Back to 2024—we are in February.
Hang on tight!
Btw—one other comment on 1968 and how it is relevant for today.
Nixon had everything going against them.
Wallace took entire southern states from him that would become solid Republican in future elections.
Nixon threaded the needle and got lucky.
Sometimes that is what it takes.
The other important lesson is that a strong third party run means that President Trump does not need 50% of the popular vote to win.
If RFK Jr. can run as a Libertarian that means he is on the ballot in all states. Polls are all over the place for him. I have seen numbers as low as 5% and as high as 30%.