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The Most Foreseeable Disaster in U.S. History
Chronicles ^ | March 2024 | Mark C. Brennan

Posted on 03/11/2024 7:51:29 AM PDT by Angelino97

take a look at the recent Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) publication showing how the United States will soon immolate itself and the rest of the world under its mountain of unpayable debt... the PWBM wastes no time gaslighting its audience. Its conclusion regarding America’s staggering $34 trillion national debt is equal parts terrifying, inevitable, and obvious:

"Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action, after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt."

...The United States’ precarious balance sheet could lead to disaster even sooner than the rosy 20-year scenario. Financial markets may start to doubt the federal government’s unsustainable “debt dynamics,” which need only a little economic weakness before they start to unravel.

The PWBM reminds us that as government debt expands, it “crowds out” private capital formation, the lifeblood of economic activity. Crowding out then leads to lower GDP growth and a smaller tax base, which factor into a government’s creditworthiness. Japan’s national debt exceeds 200 percent of its GDP today. But Japan’s high household savings rate—23.7 percent last November—funds its outsized borrowings. The United States’ 3.7 percent household savings rate shows where American consumers’ priorities lie.

Those who dare to read beyond the PWBM’s summary will be punished for their curiosity. The 200 percent debt-to-GDP ratio will only persist as an “outer bound using various favorable assumptions.” The “more plausible value,” 175 percent debt-to-GDP, isn’t even all that plausible according to the PWBM, as that lower ratio bakes in the financial markets’ wing-and-a-prayer hope that the government “will eventually implement an efficient closure rule” to shrink the debt. The previously mentioned unraveling can occur at even lower debt-to-GDP ratios (today’s 120 percent anyone?) as soon as financial markets stop dreaming.

(Excerpt) Read more at chroniclesmagazine.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: debt; default; economy
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I've been hearing about national debt default since I was in high school in the 1970s. I guess people have grown complacent because it hasn't happened yet. Kicking the can seems to have worked so far.
1 posted on 03/11/2024 7:51:29 AM PDT by Angelino97
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To: Angelino97

We are truly one more stolen election away from experiencing in real time the irreversible and rapidly accelerating fall of our Great American Republic. One election.


2 posted on 03/11/2024 7:54:39 AM PDT by glennaro (Never give up ... never give in ... never surrender ... and enjoy every minute of doing so.)
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To: Angelino97

It’s mathematical. Once debt payments consume the budget, there is no other option than default.


3 posted on 03/11/2024 7:55:59 AM PDT by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: Angelino97

I suppose Feeble Joe could just “erase” the debt, no?
(Think of all the bodies that would cause from a top-down order from the worldwide deep state.)


4 posted on 03/11/2024 7:56:07 AM PDT by lefty-lie-spy (Stay Metal)
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To: glennaro

We are truly one more stolen election away from experiencing in real time the irreversible and rapidly accelerating fall of our Great American Republic. One election.\

TRUTH!


5 posted on 03/11/2024 7:56:30 AM PDT by KenW255
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To: pgyanke

How about hitting the “PRINT” button?


6 posted on 03/11/2024 7:57:54 AM PDT by suasponte137
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To: KenW255

I am fully aware that we have heard this mantra for the past several national elections and I’ve accepted it with a grain of salt, but I truly believe we are deteriorating so quickly and in so many respects that the statement is no exaggeration; rather, it has become a dire, very real warning.


7 posted on 03/11/2024 8:01:09 AM PDT by glennaro (Never give up ... never give in ... never surrender ... and enjoy every minute of doing so.)
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To: Angelino97

We are at about a 1945 debt/GDP ratio.

The WW2 debt was dealt with by high taxation.


8 posted on 03/11/2024 8:02:53 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: pgyanke

It’s become clear that Congress will not resolve this issue. Ross Perot was warning about the problem thirty years ago.

“ A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.”

Alexander Fraser Tytler


9 posted on 03/11/2024 8:03:01 AM PDT by packagingguy
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To: Angelino97

Who didn’t know that we are headed for financial collapse?

Actually, many people aren’t paying attention, so there is that.

This is all Cloward-Piven strategy to destroy the USA. I just keep hoping and praying that I can die a natural death before the collapse. I am lucky. I have a good chance, at my age.


10 posted on 03/11/2024 8:03:57 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (America -- July 4, 1776 to November 3, 2020 -- R.I.P.)
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To: pgyanke

“Once debt payments consume the budget, there is no other option than default.”

Post-WW2 British taxation levels are possible.

Corporate shares could be taxed.


11 posted on 03/11/2024 8:06:34 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: pgyanke

“It’s mathematical. Once debt payments consume the budget, there is no other option than default.”

Semantics.

It’s all dollarized entries, not backed by anything but “the full faith and credit” promise, and Unicorn Farts.

They can “coin” a 35 trillion dollar widget and use it to pay the entire debt with one computer keystroke.

What would happen?
Folks would pay every debt with stacks of printed dollars. It would be a Debt Jubilee.
All back to Zero.

Folks would come up with new means of exchange where hard assets rule: 5 packs of Kools- 2 Bottles of Cooking Oil - 3 loaves of bread - 6 Fish.

After the Shiiite is cleared off the fan, a new, different life would go on.


12 posted on 03/11/2024 8:07:25 AM PDT by Macoozie (Roll MAGA, roll!)
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To: glennaro

It was the 2018 election friend. When that one was savaged by Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnel, among others like Facebook and Twitter and all of the tv networks and papers, and the Deep State attacked Trump with every false narrative known yo mankind, and we were still sleeping….

It won’t matter how many votes Trump gets. It’s who gets to vote now and who does the counting.


13 posted on 03/11/2024 8:09:11 AM PDT by Dogbert41 (“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God” -Matthew 5:9)
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To: glennaro

“the statement is no exaggeration; rather, it has become a dire, very real warning.”

The problem is, every politician reading it sees “20 years” and says, “ No problem, I’ll be retired by then.”


14 posted on 03/11/2024 8:10:52 AM PDT by Cincinnatus.45-70 (What do DemocRats enjoy more than a truckload of dead babies? Unloading them with a pitchfork!)
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To: Angelino97

20 years ..

20 years...86K Agents

🌑


15 posted on 03/11/2024 8:11:08 AM PDT by Varsity Flight ( "War by 🙏🙏 the prophesies set before you." I Timothy 1:18. Nazarite prayer warriors. 10.5.6.5)
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To: Angelino97

The U.S. effectively defaults on its debt when it pays out interest rates on its debt that are lower than the real rate of inflation (i.e., not the official published rate).


16 posted on 03/11/2024 8:12:54 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (If something in government doesn’t make sense, you can be sure it makes dollars.)
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To: Angelino97

“Between October 1940 and 1973 the UK had a consumption tax called Purchase Tax, which was levied at different rates depending on goods’ luxuriousness. Purchase Tax was applied to the wholesale price, initially at a rate of 33⅓ %. This was doubled in April 1942 to 66⅔ %, and further increased in April 1943 to a rate of 100%, before reverting in April 1946 to 33⅓ % again. Unlike VAT, Purchase Tax was applied at the point of manufacture and distribution, not at the point of sale. The rate of Purchase Tax at the start of 1973, when it gave way to VAT, was 25%. On 1 January 1973 the UK joined the European Economic Community and as a consequence Purchase Tax was replaced by Value Added Tax on 1 April 1973. The Conservative Chancellor Anthony Barber set a single VAT rate (10%) on most goods and services.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom


17 posted on 03/11/2024 8:13:07 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Angelino97

Nixon started it when he separated the dollar from gold. It’s just taken longer to collapse than a lot of experts thought. As one of them said, “I just didn’t realize how far down the road they could kick that can.”


18 posted on 03/11/2024 8:13:47 AM PDT by cuban leaf (2024 is going to be one for the history books, like 1939. And 2025 will be more so, like 1940-1945.)
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To: pgyanke

“Once debt payments consume the budget”

Once the INTEREST payments on the debt ALONE consume the budget...

We could right the fiscal ship if we would simply:
1. stop endless wars
2. stop the gargantuan “green” beast (that MIGHT decrease temperature 0.1 degrees in 100 years)
3. stop feeding and caring for 50 million illegals (deport all of them, close the border, and put away all the “Welcome Illegals” signs)
4. stop all the absurd pork barrel spending
5. stop all the vote buying (#4 is largely done to buy votes, too)

But nobody in government, least of all the senior “leadership,” has the will to do any of that. To start down that road we would need serious leadership that would:
1. repeal the 16th Amendment (income tax)
2. repeal the 17th Amendment (direct election of Senators)
3. repeal the 19th Amendment (women right to vote)
4. require property ownership to vote


19 posted on 03/11/2024 8:13:56 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Occupy your mind with good thoughts or your enemy will fill them with bad ones.” ~ Thomas More)
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To: Angelino97

America is bankrupt many times over and collapsing.


20 posted on 03/11/2024 8:14:15 AM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
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