Vlad can credibly threaten some of Europe within the current time window, if they weren’t bogged down in Ukraine. This applies especially to the Baltics because of the geographic situation.
This window is closing as NATO countries build up, especially in the case of Poland and the general NATO upgrades to their air forces (F35 deployment for instance). Also the integration of Sweden and Norway into NATO.
A great deal will also depend on US leadership - the willingness and ability to use the enormous resources of the US. The problem is that US top level leadership at this point is execrable, and, worse, the US public is bitterly divided. It is very difficult for the US, currently, to perform credibly in defense of anyone.
A clever Russian attack on the Baltics may be possible before the US gets around to building up its forces in Poland. That will leave a NATO response as being a mainly Euro (and largely Polish) affair. Hopefully the US will have better leadership before the Russians are able to try something like that.
What’s your strategy for Ukrainian victory?
Lol, please stop.