Posted on 04/22/2024 2:09:09 PM PDT by nickcarraway
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, a central paradox is becoming ever clearer: Many voters are growing disenchanted with, and are certainly not enthused, by the two main candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who are 81 and 77 years old, respectively. With a little over six months to go before election day on Nov. 5, this can be seen in Biden’s relatively low approval ratings. Meanwhile, Trump’s ever-growing list of controversies and court cases might be buoying his populist political base but they are turning off many independents and more moderate Republican voters.
One of the key implications of all this is the high possibility that their choice of running mates will be unusually important this time around, in historical terms, not least because of the greater than usual possibility that whichever of them triumphs in the presidential election might face challenges, given their age.
Therefore, their choices of vice president will be very important, which challenges the traditional view of this secondary office. The usual perspective on the office was rather colorfully summarized by John Nance Garner, who held the post between 1933 and 1941 under Franklin D. Roosevelt, when he said that “vice presidents never get to go anywhere … the office is not worth a bucket of warm spit.”
Even if Biden or Trump, the oldest presidential candidates nominated by the two main parties in American history, manage the next five years, their energy could flag significantly during their time in office. Their running mates might therefore wield major influence in the White House. There are at least two, more general reasons for this, beyond the ages of Biden and Trump. Firstly, the office has assumed more power and resources in recent decades, with recent vice presidents such as Biden, Dick Cheney, and Al Gore ranking among the most influential in US history. The power that those three were entrusted with reflected not only their own great political experience and strong relationships with Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton respectively. It was also a function of the enhanced status of the vice presidency, reflected not only by larger staffing budgets but also greater proximity to the center of power via a West Wing office in the White House; weekly one-on-one meetings with the president; and the authority to attend all presidential meetings.
Secondly, the office has become perhaps the single best transitional step to the presidency, as exemplified by Biden. Even if the next president manages past 2029, the next vice president could be on a “fast track” to the Oval Office at the 2028 election, or at some point in the 2030s. Since 1960, four sitting vice presidents earned their respective party’s presidential nomination but lost the election: Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968; Walter Mondale in 1984; and Gore in 2000. Three former vice presidents have been elected president: Nixon in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Biden in 2020.
The next vice president has a higher than normal chance of assuming the top job at some point between 2025 and 2029.
As noted, the next vice president has a higher than normal chance of assuming the top job at some point between 2025 and 2029. And history shows us the crucial effect that stepping up in this way can have on the future prospects of a vice president.
This is perhaps best exemplified by Harry Truman, who was vice president for just a few months, from January to April 1945, before becoming president when Roosevelt died in office. Within weeks of taking over, Truman had made several highly consequential, controversial decisions, not least the order to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August that year. He subsequently won the 1948 presidential election. In this context, the electoral stakes have grown in the nuclear age for failing to select a deputy perceived as being capable of effectively assuming the office of president upon the death or incapacitation of the incumbent.
Take, for example, the 2008 election, in which Republican nominee John McCain, then 71, selected as his running mate Sarah Palin, who was widely viewed at the time as being too inexperienced and gaffe-prone to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
Barring any last-minute change of mind, it looks most likely that Vice President Kamala Harris will once again be Biden’s running mate, despite the fact that she is widely perceived as not having performed strongly since taking office in 2021.
In 2016, Trump chose former Gov. Mike Pence, someone even many of his partisan opponents would concede could have potentially assumed the presidency in an effective manner had the situation warranted it. It remains unclear, however, whether in 2024 Trump will pick a similarly suitably competent individual.
One candidate reportedly under consideration to be his running mate is Kari Lake, who said during a rally last Sunday that Trump supporters should prepare for a “difficult” six months ahead of the election, and called on the military and police veterans among them to stand ready. Remarkably, she then added: “What do we want to strap on? We’re going to strap on our seat belt. We’re going to put on our helmet or your Kari Lake ball cap. We are going to put on the armor of God. Then maybe strap on a Glock (a type of gun) on the side of us, just in case. You can put one here and one in the back or one in the front, whatever you guys decide.”
Taking all of this together, we can see why the choice of vice president will really matter. The next holder of the office will not only have significant powers in their own right, they will also have a higher than usual chance of taking over as president should Trump or Biden be unable to perform as president.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
If we can’t trust the Arab News who can we trust?
In the last few days Vance has gone from 40/1 to 15/1 to 9/1.
The lack of an obvious successor is disappointing.
Traitor Joe has to "Call a lid" at 8:30 in the morning, he has "energy" to flag?
This is the one thing I just can’t understand. Biden is keeping Kamala as his VP and I just can’t imagine how anyone can possibly think that woman is competent to fill the role of president. Even the Dems rejected her in the primaries, she got almost no support, yet now they think it’s ok for her to remain on the ticket when there’s an excellent chance Biden won’t finish his term if elected? We’d become the laughingstock of the world with her at the helm. It would be a literal nightmare. For some reason I expected more Dems to support Kennedy for that reason, but the msm has successfully portrayed Kennedy as a kook so I guess most of them are sticking with Biden.
J.D. Vance? You have to be kidding.
How do they remove her? You think that every group will be cool with it, if they try to remove the first woman, and allegedly black VP?
The greatest thing in Trump’s and Biden’s favor is there are no other good candidates out there.
Between age and term limits, we’ll get a Trump/Biden-free presidential election in 2028.
Why would good people want to get involved in politics these days, when they have it good in the private sector?
The Founding Fathers were fed up. Otherwise, they wouldn't have gotten involved with politics.
Maybe. But there will probably only be a viable Democrat running in 2028.
No joke.
He is in fr 10th choice to 4th choice.
Rubio has also come in quite a bit lately too.
Scott 7/2
Gabbard 6/1
Noem 8/1
Vance 9/1
Rubio 11/1
The top five in the betting at the moment.
Trump got fed up.
Just thinking out loud. Maybe they know the chances of Biden being re-elected are slim (zero in a fair election) and they don't want to use up another candidate in a near sure-loss situation and save that candidate for 2028.
Exactly.
I think few blacks support her as well but I agree it would be very tricky trying to get rid of her. Maybe they will force Sotomayor to retire and shove Kamala on the Supreme Court but that would be just about as bad as having her become president. Hopefully people will begin to realize that Biden is unlikely to finish his term and that she would be thrust into the presidency. That should be sufficient to scare enough people so that they will think twice before voting for Biden.
Probably looking beyond the election and to the end of the USA
(and possibly civilization)
*the office has assumed more power and resources in recent decades, with recent vice presidents such as BIDEN, Dick Cheney, and Al Gore ranking among the most influential in US history.*
Biden most influential? Ya lost me there.
“Many voters are growing disenchanted with, and are certainly not enthused, by the two main candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who are 81 and 77 years old, respectively. “
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They are not that disenchanted the nominees, because they all had the opportunity to nominate someone else in the primaries. When I hear someone whine about not liking the candidates, I always follow up with “Who did you vote for in the primary? Why?” 90% of the time they are identified as a person with Ostrich Syndrome who is too busy taking their kids to lacrosse rather than keep abreast of political issues. I used to go easier on these types of people, because I thought about how busy people’s lives can get. But then I realized as I got older that representative government is only viable when you have a broad awareness and participation of the populace. When that doesn’t exist, it’s no better than other more authoritarian forms of government. Hell, it simply devolves into a quietly authoritarian government.
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