October 19, 2001
Bush Arrives in China, Seeking Coalition Partner
By DAVID E. SANGER
HANGHAI, Friday, Oct. 19 — President Bush met today with President Jiang Zemin of China for the first time, vowing to press forward with the war on terrorism even if his coalition partners and the American public grow weary of it.
For Mr. Bush, there are risks in the meeting, as he seeks to balance the Republican leadership's suspicion of China and its military buildup with his need to make Beijing a full partner in the counter-terrorism coalition. "You can expect very, very positive talk," one of Mr. Bush's aides said on the way here, while acknowledging that it might be difficult for Mr. Bush to declare, as he had after his first meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, that he had looked into Mr. Jiang's eyes and found a man that he could trust.
Mr. Jiang greeted President Bush this morning on familiar ground: at the Western Guest House, a sprawling estate just outside Shanghai that was taken over by the Communist Party after the revolution in 1949. It was here in Shanghai that Mr. Jiang rose through the Communist Party ranks, and he was mayor of the city during the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989, and he proved his political skills by keeping the city quiet while Beijing was in turmoil. He rose rapidly in the ensuing years.
Mr. Bush's arrival here Thursday evening for the three-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum marked his first trip to China since he was a graduate student a quarter century ago, and his first trip abroad since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington five weeks ago.
But even before the attacks, his meeting with Mr. Jiang was considered one of the most critical of his first year in office, especially after the collision of an American surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter plane earlier this year forced the two men into a confrontation before they had even met.
Mr. Bush is clearly eager to put that incident behind him. Mr. Jiang must "look me in the eye, take the measure of the American president," Mr. Bush said to a group of Asian reporters before he left Washington. His main goal, he said, was "to establish a personal relationship," something Mr. Bush, like his father before him, views as the most critical factor in stabilizing relations with the biggest powers.
Mr. Bush has said that the collision of the spy plane and the Chinese fighter jet "showed the world that we can work things together," though at the time he was enormously frustrated that calls to Beijing about the status of the American crew went unanswered for several days. He and Mr. Jiang never talked directly until after the incident was over.
But in the ensuing months both Washington and Beijing have made clear that they seek a major improvement in their relationship. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell visited China this summer, and while there was modest tension over sanctions that Washington imposed against a Chinese company for weapons proliferation, the session was notable for an improved mood.
"We won't be hearing as much from the Chinese about American hegemony, gunboat diplomacy — all the words you heard a year ago," said Bates Gill, a China scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "The Chinese see an enormous opportunity to benefit here."
Mr. Bush said earlier this week that he would raise human rights issues, but he passed over the subject so quickly that it appeared likely that his warnings to the Chinese would be mostly perfunctory. His main focus today was winning a clear endorsement from Mr. Jiang on the war against terrorism.
In recent weeks, Mr. Jiang has been supportive, but he has insisted that any military actions should be taken under the auspices of the United Nations. That is a standard Chinese diplomatic position, because Beijing has always opposed unilateral American action around the world.
But in this case, the military strikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan work to China's advantage. China shares a short border with Afghanistan, and Muslim Uighur separatists in that region have been a continuing problem for Mr. Jiang. Under the banner of fighting terrorism, he hopes to win implicit endorsement for Beijing's continuing efforts to beat back any moves toward independence in Xinjiang.
More problematic for Mr. Bush on this visit is selling his plan to build a missile defense system, which China has steadfastly opposed. In the spring, Chinese officials warned that if Mr. Bush went forward with the program Beijing would be forced to build up and modernize its own missile fleet. Currently, China is believed to have roughly 20 nuclear- equipped missiles capable of reaching the United States, a tiny arsenal by American and Russian standards.
Prior to Sept. 11, the Bush administration said repeatedly that its missile defense program was aimed at rogue states, and that China had no reason to fear that the American program would undermine the effectiveness of Beijing's minimal nuclear deterrent. But privately, some adminstration officials said this summer that they may signal to China that the administration understands that Beijing's nuclear modernization program is inevitable — and that the United States would do nothing to stop it.
The revelation of that strategy led the administration to declare publicly that there would be no trade-off between Chinese acquiescence for the antimissile program and American agreement to China's slow nuclear buildup. Last week, Mr. Bush reiterated his intention to move forward with the antimissile program, saying that the terrorist attacks proved that the United States needed a greater range of protection against terrorist threats. China, however, will almost certainly press to delay or rethink its plans.
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