Dunno about that. The Soviets deterred us for forty years using precisely the strategy you outlined.
Nevertheless, I personally doubt OBL has yet managed to get his hands on nukes. He doesn't need a deterrent -- he can always hide, and getting us to stir up a hornet's nest by bombing the Taliban is totally in line with his high-risk game plan.
Saddam, however, has no place to run to. He can only survive through deterrence. And we have already been served notice exactly what that deterrent involves.