Omar: Desperate Bluff or Creible Threat?

STRATFOR ^ | 11/16/01

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

What if it is a credible threat? What if your gut feeling is correct? What then?

...Our strategy would change not at all. We'll step on this dung-beetle one way or another.

[Poohbah]

Yeah, Hitler tended to give a LOT of orders that got ignored due to a lack of resources.

[Common Tator]

Does anyone else have a gut felling that some kind of attack might happen here shortly.

An attacker never announces in general terms an attack where the goal is killing some of his enemy. He preserves the element of surprise when his purpose is the general distruction of military targets or general population. There is nothing to be gained and lots to be lost in threatening to attack. When they know you are coming the chances of being stopped are greater.

Nations only make threats to achieve a goal. It is always do this or we will do that. Announced attacks are always calls for action. Turn over bin laden or we will attack is an example. Get out of Kuwait or we will attack is another. I am going to destroy your nation with out the "Unless you do X" is always a bluff.

If they are going to attack they will just do it. We will know about it when it happens. Threats of attack with no demands are always always an empty threat.

You should try getting a clue. You only reveal how little you know with your silly posts.

[null and void]

Don't you read Dilbert? It's where Phil, the Prince of Insufficent Illumination hails from...

[VRWC_minion]

Looks like Omar bought bin Laden big lie. I bet bin Laden convinced everyone he had a way to destroy US.

[Mossad1967]

Screw you, If I know little, you know less moron!

[ctdonath2]

The threat is coming from a guy hiding under a rock in the middle-of-nowhere region of a fourth-world country. I'm not expecting much from him.

[ahariail]

In very short order, I'll bet no one else will be able to tell Omar's a** from a hole in the ground, either.

Just a pile of body parts, and the hole.

[Excuse_Me]

I don't know if it is a credible threat. It was interesting when the FBI gave this 'credible threat" last month:

FBI Warns of 'Skyfall' Attack
By Declan McCullagh
2:35 p.m. Oct. 11, 2001 PDT

WASHINGTON -- In a brief but dramatic statement, the FBI warned Thursday that Americans should expect additional terrorist attacks.

A two-sentence press release on FBI.gov said there "may be additional terrorist attacks within the United States and against U.S. interests overseas over the next several days."

The content was disturbing enough, but even stranger was the Web address of the press release:
http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/skyfall.htm.
The link was pulled about a half an hour after it was put up.

Now, either this was indicative of a plan for something like AA587, or the FBI was giving their opinion of credible threats; e.g. "The sky is falling..."

[itsinthebag]

"Does anyone else have a gut felling that some kind of attack might happen here shortly? I keep on thinking about the Vice President's comments the other night.

Yes.

[itsinthebag]

"Omar: The plan is going ahead and, God willing, it is being implemented. But it is a huge task, which is beyond the will and comprehension of human beings.If God's help is with us, this will happen within a short period of time; keep in mind this prediction.

Remember when Sadam Hussein said our little war with him was gonna be "the mother of all battles?"

[BearCub]

No different than similar threats made by the goofy Suddam Insane back in the early 90's.

No different, except that Saddam didn't manage to kill five thousand of us. The fact is that more Americans are going to die, in America, at their hands. At this point it's just a matter of how, where and how many.

-bc