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To: Rokke
1. How many people are able to see a 6 foot long pole flying 10 miles away at 13,000 ft at dusk (no smoke or flame since its motor had burned out)

What does it matter how many can or can not see such a thing? Many of the statements speak of a "flare" "streak" or "firework" that a large majority saw "rise from the surface." What were they seeing? And why didn't the FBI or NTSB try to determine the 3D trajectory, or even the originating point, by triangulation.

It wouldn't matter if nobody could see supersonic pole 10' long, 10 miles away; they did see something. What was it?

2. Just within this small sub-group of 182 witnesses you've got several significantly different descriptions of the same event.

Why yes. The ones who were to the north said it was to the south, and the ones who were in the south put it towards the north. So, "some say it was south and some say it was north. Therefore, they saw nothing and the case is closed." Right?

The eyewitnesses argument states that eyewitnesses can't be wrong.

Wrong. Even if some are wrong, there is still a consensus about what they saw, unless all of them suddenly had a mass delusion. Even if each witness is only right 10% of the time, if there are 50 witnesses who simultaneously report a given event, there is a 99.48% that it actually happened. In this case, there are 96 witnesses who reported that the streak "rose from the surface." Here's the calculation.

Well, even within this small subgroup of 733 witnesses to the event, several must be wrong. Which ones?

It's far more likely that the 6 who said the streak originated in the air were mistaken, than the 96 who said it originated from the surface.

But even for those 6 people who saw it originate in the air, any which described it as a "streak" were probably not describing a 747 "in various stages of crippled flight" since the angular velocity of a 747 nearly 3 miles up, 10 or more miles away, is not nearly enough to look like "a streak."

So, the question remains, what did the witnesses see?

25 posted on 12/22/2001 12:41:33 PM PST by coloradan
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To: coloradan
"What does it matter how many can or can not see such a thing?"

It matters when people say they have seen something they couldn't have.

"It wouldn't matter if nobody could see supersonic pole 10' long, 10 miles away; they did see something."

Donaldson says it was a stinger or other shoulder launched missile. Nobody can see a six foot long missile at 10 miles. Therefore, if they say they saw something, it was not a stinger, thus debunking Donaldson's theory.

"Wrong. Even if some are wrong, there is still a consensus about what they saw"

Donaldson's summary is based on NTSB sample of 458 witnesses. Of those, 339 witnessed the fireball, but only 183 witnessed a streak of light. Of those, only 102 offered information as to the origin of the streak of light. Of those, only 40 said the streak of light originated from the surface of the sea. Only 40 people of 339 who witnessed the destruction of TWA 800 support Donaldson's claim. That is hardly a consensus.

"angular velocity of a 747 nearly 3 miles up, 10 or more miles away, is not nearly enough to look like "a streak."

When was the last time you witnessed an aircraft breaking up in flight? Drop a burning object from 13,000 ft and what do you think it would look like as it accelerates toward the Earth.

"what did the witnesses see?"

They saw a 747 self destruct over the Atlantic Ocean.

26 posted on 12/23/2001 12:44:01 AM PST by Rokke
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To: coloradan
The calculation you link to in post 25 assumes that the probabilities are independent. While the witnesses are independent, what they are watching is not. For example, 10 people claiming a magician pulled a rabbit out of a hat doesn't mean that it actually happened that way.

This is not to say I don't agree that I doubt the witnesses or that at least one missile was involved.

39 posted on 12/23/2001 8:45:07 PM PST by Tymesup
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