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To: Physicist
Your theory is right, but the example of whaling is wrong. I've actually written about this and looked at the studies. The whaling industry CHANGED when Rockefeller refined kerosene, making whale oil (forget food---it didn't comprise that much of the market) relatively more expensive. The transformation was pretty abrupt. Whaling was virtually dead as a major American industry by the 1880s.
243 posted on 02/19/2002 4:00:55 AM PST by LS
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To: LS
Your theory is right, but the example of whaling is wrong.

The introduction of kerosene only delayed the crash, which in any case came at different times for different species. Whales were still hunted almost to extinction. Here's a nice page about sperm whales that contains the following:

...The development of the harpoon gun in the 1860s brought more hunting of the large baleen whales and less emphasis on Physeter.

By the 1930s a decline in some of the baleen species had resulted in renewed interest in sperm whale hunting. Floating factory ships could remain for lengthy periods within the prime habitat of Physeter, especially the North Pacific. In the 1936/37 season, for the first time in many years, the annual kill rose above 5,000. Subsequent efforts at international regulation were largely unsuccessful. In the 1950/51 season the take was 18,264 sperm whales, in 1963/64 it peaked at 29,255, and it remained above 20,000 in all but one season until 1975/76. About one-fourth of the total catch was made by shore-based operations, and the remainder by pelagic expeditions. Finally, in response to immense scientific and public concern, the International Whaling Commission began to reduce quotas substantially. The kill in the 1978/79 season was 8,536, the quota set for 1980/81 was only 1,849, and no kill was authorized for 1981/82. ...

...Physeter now is thought to number only 5,000-10,000 individuals in the Southern Hemisphere, having been nearly exterminated by the intensive commercial kills that continued through the 1970s (Marine Mammal News 15[1989]:5). There doubtless are fewer in the Northern Hemisphere. The official USDI classification of Physeter as endangered, which had been criticized by some parties as being alarmist, now can be recognized as fully accurate.

Kerosene bought the whales a hundred years, which is a more stunning result than anything any environmentalist will ever achieve, but in the end it couldn't do away with the Tragedy of the Commons.

248 posted on 02/19/2002 6:12:01 AM PST by Physicist
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