Posted on 02/20/2002 3:37:22 AM PST by TroutStalker
Edited on 04/22/2004 11:46:12 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
We were reading President Bush's budget the other day (we know, get a life), when we came across an unusual mention of our all-time favorite companies -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What we found is a tale we think taxpayers and investors should want to hear.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Even putting derivitives aside for a minute, I've noticed a sort of "rumbling" in the banking/credit system in general lately. I'm not too detail oriented when it comes to economics, but the big picture isn't looking good.
I'm far from any kind of expert, but I did spend quite a few years in real estate and mortgages and I know the financial and credit aspects of the economy can be a strange animal. It's changed so quickly in just the few years since I've gotten out of it.
I read an article last night that bankruptcy filings are up 19% in 2001. That's pretty dramatic if you ask me, considering "accounts receivable" is considered an asset in accounting terms.
It used to be that when the prime went down, borrowing rates followed within a week reflecting the drop almost verbatim. Over the last year and a half, the fed has dropped about 5 points yet interest rate drops have been nearly none-existent. As a matter of fact, credit card rates are climbing pretty quickly.
People can blame the evil bank execs, but that's juvenile as there will always be someone to sell money cheaper if there's a way to do it. I think they're just having a lot of trouble making ends meet.
AAABEST - You seem to be a credit worthy fellow : ))
I'll add you to my flag list for such articles.
Wonder how our 50 'nation states' will do in the Olympics after the breakup of the US? Gold in 'surfing' to Hawaii?
But few will be concerned until this thing comes in short of the runway.
The only possible 'plan' for keeping Social Security afloat has to include reduced benefits, later benefits, OR a planned reduction in beneficiaries.
Increased taxation will not be an option unless our children are completely 'sold' on being without liberty.
This story is not a relatively limited business story. Further, it is a depiction of only a part of the story--the two FM's are a significant part of the mortgage lending market, and the financial hedge market. But the two entities combined are a smaller fraction of the total credit money creation engine. And the two FM's are directly dependent on the remainder of that financial market--credit problems elsewhere could well cause liqudation of a large part of the FM's capital as well as eliminate the credit on the other side of many of their derivative transactions.
The word "insurance" here ought to be stricken--these transactions are insurance only in the sense that they are offsetting bets about financial futures. The term "insurance" under circumstances where the risk is a $350,000 fire and the entity that promises to rebuild the house has three quarters of a billion dollars of assets is a fair description of the relationship because one or ten or fifty simultaneous fires are extremely unlikely and the cost of the fix is quite manageable in terms of the total assets available.
Here, we cannot really quantify the magnitude of the financial obligations that support FM's position that rising interest rates are not a risk nor can we make any assessment of how great the risk is that the other party to the transaction will be unable to perform if the risk hits. Under circumstances where a failure to perform (hypothetically) by JP Morgan on a totally unrealated derivative obligation could bring down the other side of the hedge transaction to which FM looks to support its rate avoidence risk, the entire system is subject to the risk of being brought down by one or two financial events.
Everyone here ought to look up PrudentBear.Com. This week through Friday, there is an article by Doug Noland under "Credit Bubble Bulletin" which is an effort at a college freshman level explanation of the problem. The article is long; the examples tedious; and understanding is difficult unless you have enough basic accounting skills to create T-accounts to follow his analysis. However the article is a basic tool in understanding the magnitude of the problem.
France, India inch towards signing submarine deal
...on the lighter side.
The name doesn't ring a bell. Got any links or explanations for us dummies?
Foreclosures are on the rise by a substantial amount. I'm seeing it in the lower end of the market right now, mainly in first time homebuyer type housing where it takes two incomes to pay the mortgage and one or both have gotten laid off from work.
I've never been through a market collapse like Houston of the 80's and I wonder what it will take for this foreclosure rate to filter on up into the higher income brackets.
An Enron type failure of Freddie and Fannie would be very, very bad for all involved in the Mortage/Real Estate/Building industries.
They are the only monetary asset that is not someone elses liability.
I'm already there. About 30% of my non-401-k money is in Gold and Silver. I have no such choice in for 401-k money, however.
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