The Next Test: Missile defense faces a new hurdle tonight

National Review Online ^ | March 15, 2002 | John J. Miller

[xsysmgr]

here's a missile-defense test scheduled for tonight, and the stakes have never been lower.

That's because the Pentagon, over the course of five previous tests, has built a body of evidence showing that national-missile-defense technology can in fact succeed. The kill vehicles hit their targets in three of the five tests; the two failures were the result of low-tech blunders that reveal almost nothing about the ultimate feasibility of missile defense. It's becoming ever more clear that missile defense will be a part of our future, if only we sustain the political will to deploy it.

The enemies of missile defense no doubt have prepared two separate sets of talking points for this evening's result. If the intercept fails, they will crow about how missile defense can't possibly be made to work. If it succeeds, they will say the test was too easy.

In reality, tonight's experiment is the most complicated one the Pentagon has yet conducted. Not only will the interceptor have to hit a target traveling at head-spinning speed in outer space, it will also have to distinguish its target from three balloon decoys trying to throw off its sensors. In previous tests, the interceptor has faced only a single decoy.

Success tonight would mean that missile defense will proceed toward full operational capability in the real world, with a rudimentary system in place sometime in 2004. Failure probably would guarantee missile defense an embarrassing spot on the front page of Saturday newspapers all over the country. (Why are test failures more newsworthy than the successes?) It wouldn't be a disaster, though. Missile-defense specialists learn valuable information from each trial, including the ones that don't conclude with a big bang.

Perhaps most important, however, is the post-9/11 political environment. Even before Osama bin Laden became a household name, Americans were not too receptive to the claims of arms-control cultists suggesting that the world isn't a dangerous place and we don't need to defend ourselves from rogue states. They're even less receptive now. And all the chicken-little arguments about the destabilizing effects of canceling the ABM treaty have materialized into nothing. Last year, President Bush notified Russia that we're pulling out, and the Russians didn't do much more than shrug.

A direct hit somewhere high above the Pacific Ocean would be preferable to any other result tonight. That much is obvious. No matter what happens, however, the consensus for missile defense has been building for a long time and it will continue to grow.

[skeeter]

Anybody know from where and at what time the launch will be?

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

The enemies of missile defense no doubt have prepared two separate sets of talking points for this evening's result. If the intercept fails, they will crow about how missile defense can't possibly be made to work. If it succeeds, they will say the test was too easy.

Yep. And somebody will undoubtedly dredge up that MIT liberal idiot's "proof" that missile defense will not work. It's interesting to see a "scientist" say flat-out that something will never work. If every scientist and engineer had that attitude, we'd be living like the Muslim countries.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Probably from Vandenberg AFB, I don't know the time.

[WALLACE212]

Ping

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Weather Good for U.S. Anti-Missile Test Over Pacific
Fri Mar 15, 2:35 PM ET
By Tabassum Zakaria

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The weather was clear and high-tech systems ready on Friday as the United States prepared for its most challenging attempt to destroy a mock nuclear warhead over the Pacific Ocean in a controversial missile defense test program.

Three of the previous five U.S. military tests since 1999, including the last two in July and December last year, have been successful in President Bush (news - web sites)'s plan for a limited shield against a missile attack from "rogue" states such as North Korea (news - web sites), Iran and Iraq.

"As of now, the weather looks good and all systems are go," Defense Department spokeswoman Cheryl Irwin told Reuters hours in advance of the evening shot.

Friday's test, costing more than $100 million, was to deploy three inflated balloons in space to see if a test weapon could be diverted from tracking and colliding with a dummy warhead launched westward over the ocean from California.

Previous tests have used only one speeding balloon near the warhead in the blackness of space.

Russia and China oppose the planned U.S. missile shield, saying it could lead to an offensive arms race to overcome new defenses. But the United States is withdrawing from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty between Moscow and Washington and pressing ahead with increased determination after Sept. 11 attacks on America.

In the test, scheduled for a four-hour window beginning on Friday night, a projectile weapon fired from Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific will attempt to intercept and destroy a mock warhead launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, about 4,800 miles away.

As in previous tests, the warhead and balloon package would be lifted into space on a modified Minuteman-booster rocket along with the three balloon decoys between 9 p.m. EST on Friday and 1 a.m. EST on Saturday.

SPEEDING BALLOON DECOYS

The balloons would separate from the Vandenberg rocket along with the warhead and inflate in space, with all four objects speeding westward toward Kwajalein about 140 miles (230 km) above the ocean.

The Pentagon (news - web sites) later this year plans to begin a more robust testing program, which it said has been slowed by the ABM treaty, drawn up between the United States and the former Soviet Union. It forbids either country to have such a defense.

Bush on Dec. 13 gave Moscow formal six-months notice that the United States was withdrawing from the treaty in order to press ahead with more advanced testing that would have violated it.

The president said the September attacks on America proved the need to develop ways "to protect our people from future terrorists or rogue state missile attacks" even though hijacked airplanes, not missiles, struck the Pentagon and New York City's World Trade Center.

It marked the first time in recent history the United States has abandoned a major international arms treaty.

For three decades, the treaty had stood as a bedrock of U.S.-Russian nuclear stability. Moscow says it remains a cornerstone agreement upon which other arms accords rest, while Bush argued it is a Cold War relic.

The first anti-missile test on Oct. 3, 1999, resulted in the successful intercept and destruction of the warhead target. The second on Jan. 19, 2000, failed due to a clogged cooling pipe on the "kill vehicle." The third also failed on July 8, 2000, due to an unsuccessful separation of the weapon from its booster rocket over Kwajalein.

The fourth and fifth tests last July 14 and Dec. 3 resulted in successful intercepts.

[skeeter]

If it's from Vandenberg I'd grab a beer & watch.

But since the window is from 6 to 10 I don't guess I should bother.

[RightWhale]

The first 70 interceptor booster rockets have already been ordered, $900 million. Groundwork at Fort Greely in preparation for building the first 5 test silos has already begun. Remember, this didn't start under the Bush administration even though it is moving much more rapidly than under the Clinton administration.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Yeah, they don't want to be very specific about launch times. The way things are going these days, I can't blame the authorities. I'll bet the security around Vandenberg is hardcore.

[Harrison Bergeron]

Success.

[Free the USA]

Check the Bump List folders for articles related to and descriptions of the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.

[Centurion2000]

bump

[Southack]

"In the test, scheduled for a four-hour window beginning on Friday night, a projectile weapon fired from Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific will attempt to intercept and destroy a mock warhead launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, about 4,800 miles away.

As in previous tests, the warhead and balloon package would be lifted into space on a modified Minuteman-booster rocket along with the three balloon decoys between 9 p.m. EST on Friday and 1 a.m. EST on Saturday."

Cool!

[Jambe]

Why do these tests always seem to be scheduled on Friday evenings?

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Good question. I don't know.

[clamboat]

Wasn't it only a couple of weeks ago that I read all the articles of concern about a dirty nuke being trucked into position in Manhatten or Washington DC?

Why the hell are we spending money on missle defense when we can't even stop hijackers from flying our own airplanes into builds. What an incredible waste of money.

[RightWhale]

Exo-atmospheric kinetic kill devices are only one of the components of the ABM system. Having this and the other components operational together makes the whole system much more likely to succeed. Leaving out any segment such as this one makes the rest of the system somewhat easier to defeat. This component by itself can be defeated, but if that is the designed intent, it leaves the attacker more vunerable to the other segments. There is a terminal phase interceptor like the old Sprint. There is a balloon-popper device in orbit. There are boost-phase projectors, both beam and kinetic. There are other segments that haven't been publicly disclosed.

Because of the sites and capabilities of the various segments, it would be next to impossible to attack a significant part of the system by surprise. That is the actual point: reducing the possibility of a powerful and war-winning surprise attack. The enemy could always move all Zig for great justice if they have enough Zig, but it wouldn't come as a surprise.