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Serb Arrest Points to Coup Against Djindjic
Stratfor ^ | 16 March 2002 | Stratfor

Posted on 03/16/2002 10:38:34 PM PST by nikola

Serb Arrest Points to Coup Against Djindjic
16 March 2002 Summary

Profiles:

MOMCILO PERISIC - Deputy Prime Minister of Republic of Serbia

NEBOJSA PAVKOVIC - Yugoslav Army Chief of Staff

Yugoslav military security service personnel arrested Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Momcilo Perisic March 14 on charges of espionage. The move was likely part of an effort by Serb nationalists to depose pro-Western Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic. Djindjic will probably be able to foil the plot, if he can survive the weekend.

Analysis

On the evening of March 14, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Momcilo Perisic was having dinner with John Neighbor, an official from the U.S. Embassy and two other Serb citizens. At some point Yugoslav military security service personnel arrested the four, and after 15 hours ultimately released Neighbor, although they denied him contact with the embassy during his incarceration.

The U.S. State Department, "shocked and outraged and … protesting like hell" according to a spokesman, lambasted Belgrade for its treatment of U.S. personnel, especially as Neighbor was at one point reportedly held with a plastic bag over his head. Shortly thereafter, a military court in Belgrade announced that Perisic had been detained on charges of espionage and revealing military secrets.

STRATFOR sources in Belgrade report that the charges ring true. They contend that Perisic has been a U.S. contact for at least the past three years, and has proven instrumental in keeping Washington abreast of what the various players in the Yugoslav government and army are up to. It is highly likely that some of the information he passed to the United States also proved useful to prosecutors in the war crimes trial of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

Government officials including Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic and Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica were by their own admission caught by surprise over Perisic's arrest. A joint statement from an emergency session of Serbian leaders made it explicitly clear they had all heard about the arrest through the media.

At this point, the story becomes even more complicated. Perisic is a deputy prime minister in the ruling coalition of Serbia, the real power in what is left of Yugoslavia. It is exceedingly unlikely that pro-Western Djindjic, Perisic's boss, was unaware of his activities. Considering how essential Western assistance and debt relief is to the survivability of Djindjic's government, the prime minister had to have at least tacitly approved of Perisic's activities.

It is also likely that when Perisic was arrested, he was transferring information that might have proved either embarrassing or incriminating to officials in Yugoslavia's military security services, which is still the primary bastion of Milosevic loyalists.

Between his current position as deputy prime minister and his previous post as Milosevic's army chief of staff throughout the Kosovo conflict -- until his dismissal in 1999 -- and prime architect of the Bosnian war, Perisic undoubtedly had ample dirt on every personality who mattered over the last several years of Milosevic's rule.

Timing was critical for those who wanted to keep Perisic silenced. The morning that he was arrested, Yugoslav army Chief of Staff Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic announced he would resign by the end of the month. Pavkovic, a fierce rival to Perisic, has long been considered to share many of Milosevic's nationalist leanings and is himself under investigation by the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague.

Pavkovic is the most respected personality in the military, and his resignation would deny a major potential ally to anyone plotting a possible coup against pro-Western Djindjic. Those who orchestrated Perisic's arrest undoubtedly hoped to force the nationalist Pavkovic to rally the military to their cause of deposing Djindjic.

But Pavkovic was not the only person the military security service likely hoped to bring into their conspiracy. Without a figurehead willing to fill the spotlight, their efforts would come to naught. Pavkovic may have had the nationalist credentials and the respect of the military, but he lacks the public appeal needed to rally the nation.

That may be why Gen. Alexander Tomic, head of the Yugoslav military security services who allegedly ordered the arrest, had close communications with Rade Bulatovic, the security aide to Kostunica, on the issue of Perisic's detention. Kostunica's political star has been dwindling ever since he became president in late 2000. Central Bank chief Mladjan Dinkic proved a hit with international donors, Djindjic himself showed he is capable of juggling economic reforms and public works and Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic proved more capable of grabbing headlines.

That reduced Kostunica, who has made no secret of his desire to match his title with actual power, to harping at government policies and attempting to stir up the embers of Serb nationalism.

Press reports from B92, Tanjug and Beograd.com news agencies, in addition to Yugoslav Justice Minister Vladan Batic and Djindjic himself, all place Tomic at the center of the conspiracy. Apparently it was Tomic who notified Bulatovic about the arrest in an attempt to bring Kostunica on board. Tomic also reportedly refused Pavkovic's order to attend an emergency session March 15 of senior Serbian and Yugoslav leaders -- prime ministers, presidents and chiefs of staff included -- to address the Perisic arrest. When so ordered, his alleged response was, "I don't take my orders from anyone in that room," B92 reported.

The strategy of Tomic and Co. was probably to arrest Perisic, expose his espionage, and then count on a combination of a Pavkovic-led military and a Kostunica-led populace to either force a change in Djindjic's pro-Western behavior or simply replace Djindjic with Kostunica outright.

If this was indeed the plan, then the next 24 hours are critical. Tomic and his allies have precious little time to convince Pavkovic and Kostunica to move. Should no popular protests spontaneously erupt, there must be charismatic personalities to force the issue. But with Pavkovic within two weeks of retirement, and Kostunica's track record of having neither the guts nor gray matter, the prognosis is poor.

Djindjic is already looking for openings. In one of his first statements on the government crisis he declared, "Not only is there no civil control of the Military Security Service, but there's no military control," Tanjug reported. This statement about the arrogance of the military security service -- and the implied promise that the lack of military control will be soon rectified -- will likely draw regular military units closer to Djindjic's camp and away from Tomic's.

Djindjic also may be able to draw the public to his side as well, in spite of the well-grounded espionage charges. Despite the pain of the economic reforms Djindjic has implemented, for the most part Serbs have power, water and food -- a somewhat better state of affairs than existed under his predecessors, who led Serbs into one war after another - all of which they lost.

Since he has rather solid control over the military and the Interior Ministry, he now knows exactly who and where some of his most dangerous foes are based -- and he can purge them at his leisure. That depends, of course, on whether Djindjic and his government can survive the weekend.

He also has another pool of strength to draw upon -- the West. The United States is not exactly in a conciliatory mood right, and someone else's rogue secret police roughing up an American diplomat is not something that will engender warm fuzzies in the White House. The Bush administration may require Tomic's head on a platter, but it will also be willing to provide the platter as well as some cash on the side.

This does not mean, however, that Djindjic can purge with impunity. The arrest of Perisic has shaken his government to its core. The Serb citizenry has yet to come to grips with the tumultuous events of the past decade in general, and the role they played in the Yugoslav wars in particular. If the reactionary arrest of one of his allies does not serve as a wake up call to Djindjic, he could well face a far more blatant coup attempt in the future. Tomic is certainly not the last nationalist residing in the Serb military.




Related Analysis:

Kostunica's Power Play Will Backfire - 22 August 2001

Yugoslavia: Djindjic Stealing Nationalist Thunder - 27 February 2002

Montenegro: President Under Fire Over Serbia Agreement - 15 March 2002



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: balkans; campaignfinance; djindjic
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1 posted on 03/16/2002 10:38:34 PM PST by nikola
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To: balkans;*balkans
bump
2 posted on 03/16/2002 10:38:53 PM PST by nikola
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To: nikola;spar;joan
Why do western-media folks keep harping on Serbian "nationalism".

I know many Serbs and although they have pride in their heritage and religion, I do not find them "nationalistic" at all. Serbia is the ONLY truely multi-ethnic province in the former Yugoslavia....Montenegro, somewhat...but not nearly like Serbia.

Why, There are even tens of thousands of Albanians and Romas living around Belgrade! For goodness sake!! gezzzzzzzzze!

3 posted on 03/16/2002 10:57:41 PM PST by crazykatz
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To: crazykatz; vooch
Stratfor is overstating it. This was a warning not a coup attempt. Yugoslavia has never had a military coup and its military culture is not coup prone. This was the second warning (public anyway) to Djindjic.
4 posted on 03/16/2002 11:38:00 PM PST by Spar
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To: Spar
I agree. Absolutely nothing in this analysis is correct.

Take a load of this:
It is also likely that when Perisic was arrested, he was transferring information that might have proved either embarrassing or incriminating to officials in Yugoslavia's military security services, which is still the primary bastion of Milosevic loyalists.

I can bet my life and claim that the military never showed any respect for Miloshevich. Miloshevich always preferred the republican (Serbian) Police. Miloshevich hated the military with passion, because, unlike the police, the military never accepted to be his instrument of power. He could never count on the military. That was the reason why the police was given tens of millions of dollars, while the military was kept on peanuts; barely enough to upkeep the weaponry.

Pavkovich might have been Miloshevich's ally, but that doesn't mean that the 110,000 personell were.

There are no Miloshevich loyalists in the army. The military is loyal only to the people and the country. Serbs are a warrior nation. Military is the single most popular institution in the country, always has been.

And why the hell would those who so passionately despised Miloshevich all of a sudden be his "loyalists", now that he's on "trial" and has in fact already been convicted? God almighty can't save him, let alone "loyalists" in the military.

And then this:

That reduced Kostunica, who has made no secret of his desire to match his title with actual power, to harping at government policies and attempting to stir up the embers of Serb nationalism.

Koshtunitsa doesn't give a damn about power. His "title" is a ceremonial one - I don't see where the author sees the 'title-power' connection. "Serb nationalism" is always a good excuse to whip up the anti-Serbian sentiment [notice how Djindjich is always pro-Western (i.e. servile), while all his opponents are "nationalists" (i.e. people with at least some dignity). The author has completely twisted the situation - he portrays the Military and Koshtunitsa as those who want to stage a coup, even though it is Djindjich who has been trying to stage one. He has on more than one occasion tried to uncostitutionally wrestle the power away from the Federal government. What is the Miloshevich kidnapping if not a direct attack on the state, its Constitution and its Supreme Court? What are those 100+ decrees he has enacted in order to rule the country in direct breach of the Constitution? All those things represent a series of small coup d'etats.

STRATFOR's analyses have become shite.

5 posted on 03/17/2002 12:43:29 AM PST by Banat
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: Banat, Roger Young
While Stratfor's analyisis is rarely boring, it is just as often rarely accurate.

I gave up on considering them a valid source of predicting the future after I read all their predictions for what what was to become of 'Yugoslavia' after the 'bombing for humanity' in 1999 not long after the last cluster bomblet landed in some school yard in Kosovo. They were so far off base that it was beyond laughable.

7 posted on 03/17/2002 5:21:25 AM PST by getoffmylawn
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To: Spar;Banat;getoffmylawn;Roger Young;vooch;joan
Spar: Correction: Yugoslav military toppled the government of the pro-Quisling prince Paul in March 1941, tore up the agreement Paul signed with Hitler's, and proclaimed the under-aged crownprince Peter II king. The military assassinated the last Obrenovich monarch and his wife in 1903, etc.

Banat, getoffmylawn, both of you are on the button. The real question is if STRATFOR is a disinformation source or merely relfects flawed conceptualization of available data. My experience with "analysts" is the former. IT coems from a profound ignorance of a culture in which the study is being conducted. Flawed intelligence is at the helm of our (hushed up) operational failures all over the world. A house is more than a collection of bricks.

Roger Young: brilliant observation! Serbs like to "pride" themselves on their "rich democratic tradition." No such thing. In its entire modern history from 1802 until now, Serbia has never been a true democracy and most of its rulers (King Peter I being the only exception) were either exiled (if they were lucky) or assassinated, or toppled by other means.

That being so, the idea of a coup at this time against Djindjich is ridiculous. The country is aboutt to be reorganized and new elections must be held. A coalition of forces outside the DOS -- including Koshtunitsa's DSS which has been thrown out of the DOS government in Voyvodina as recently as a week ago -- could form a majority govenrment.

While Djindjich himself could not win, his coalition commands a formidable 30% or so of popularity. One must understand that Serbia is a multiethnic country and that, not surprisingly, 1/3 of the population is not Serbian. Every non-Serb party is in coalition with Djindjich. The situation is similar to that in Montenegro,where Djukanovich actually governs with a minority government since the National Party left his coalition. With the exception of the Liberal Alliance (separatists), which garnishs about 7% of the vote, Djukanovich's mandate was carried with a razor-thin majority thanks only to non-Montenegrin-non-Serb parties (Croatians, Bosnian Muslims, Albanians, etc.).

Naturally, the political climate dictated by the West (Washington) is such that the main enemy is considered Serbian nationalism. That naitonalism, just as in the last days of SFRY, was fueled by the destructive forces of those who are not Serbs working on keeping Serbia as weak as possible, even directly undermining it. The situation is identical to that of Arabs born in Israel, who are Israeli citizens, and who now represent 20% of the Israeli population -- and growing fast. The situation in Serbia is parallel if not identical. The growing and hostile population in Kosovo refused to be part of the state in which Albanians were born or into which they illegally settled. Voyvodina's Hungarians, Rashka's Muslims, Croatians in Montenegro and Voyvodina, all belong to essentially anti-Serb coalitions, playing on the sensitivity of the multiethnic issue and a feeling by many Serbs that they need to show the world that they are a tolerant people (liberals of the Civic Alliance, and similar groups), pretty much the way Israeli leftists and peaceniks side with the Aarabs against their own country.

The concept of multyethnicity is a noble one. But rights of passage come with resident responsabilities. Minorities in various countries should not work against the interest of the nation they decided to live with, but need to support and express patriotism of the country of their choice. Nothing is more obvious in that sphere than the US, where native-born and immigrant citizens are required to pledge aliegence to the country. Those who come to the US and are not showing the "right" amount of support for the new country may face scorn and even violence by those who feel jingoistic and overly patriotic these days, and deportation if their activities are deemed violent or destructive. Yet when it comes to Serbia, the rules change. Any patriotism or aim at safeguarding a nation in delcine is seen as dangerous "nationalism."

What people do not understand is that Serbs are fighting for their own survival and that the edge of abyss of no reutnr is closer than some are ready to admit.

8 posted on 03/17/2002 7:41:03 AM PST by kosta50
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To: kosta50
Too bad you, just like most "pure" Serbs qualify Serbs from other ethnic/religious origins as "non-Serbs" and their parties as "anti-Serb coalitions"! That is not helpful for a Serb nation trying to survive under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
9 posted on 03/17/2002 4:58:53 PM PST by Tamodaleko
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To: kosta50
most change to some
10 posted on 03/17/2002 5:00:34 PM PST by Tamodaleko
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To: Tamodaleko
Last time I checked, Hungarians, Croats, Albaninas and "Boshnyaks" were not Serbs. Liberal Alliance is non-Serb by their own volition. Kosovo Albanians were preaching thier own "republic" when they had the highest autonomy on earth, working against the state they lived in, boycotting its institutions, and waged a separatist war against Serbia; Alija Izetbgeovic wrote his Islamic proclamation long before Miloshevich could be blamed for it, declaring that there can be no peace between Islamic and "infidel" world.

Perhaps it's time Serbs face up to their reality and see who is with them. Are there any non-Serb parties that are opposed to Voyvodina's autonomy? Are there any Albanin parties in Montenegro that are in favor of Montenegro staying in the union? Are there any Israeli Arabs who support Ariel Sharon? It's ethnic politics! Yet the Serbs are supposed to be "beyond that," because that's that bad "nationalism." Serbs have to vote against themselves just to prove how "mundane" they are.

Under Tito, Serbs had to completely deny themselves just to show that they are not the bad guys. Serb communists were the most rabid anti-Serbs if they were to be recognized as "good" communists. They were all "Yugoslavs." Worse, they were expected to be Yugoslavs. Being a Serb was the same as being a "Chetnik." Asking why Cyrillic is not used was a "nationalist provocation," and so on. People had to apologetically minimize their Serbian nationality in most veiled terms lest they be branded "nationalists."

Now wer are back to square one. In order for the Serbs to be palatable to the West, they must show how Un-Serb they are, while everyone else uses ethnic voting blocks to undermine Serbia and Montenegro.

You can lay your guit trip on someone else. I have yet to be convinced that non-Serbs are really interested in anything but taking a chunck out of remaining Montenegro and Serbia, and are using each and every Serb-bashing appologist to hitch a ride.

11 posted on 03/17/2002 5:28:30 PM PST by kosta50
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To: kosta50
I admit, I have trouble with ethnic politics
12 posted on 03/17/2002 6:41:58 PM PST by Tamodaleko
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To: Tamodaleko
Too bad you, just like most "pure" Serbs qualify Serbs from other ethnic/religious origins as "non-Serbs" and their parties as "anti-Serb coalitions"

There are no "pure" Serbs -- the purest ones have turned into "Boshnyaks." Because they served Islam, they were not repeatedly raped for centuries by non-Serbs as the Christian Serbs were. So, Christian Serbs carry a multitude of genes -- they are the certified muts of Europe that everyone is ready to kick and sneer at.

To me a Serb is anyone who calls himself/herself a Serb. There are no Serb genes to differentiate you from the Croat or "Boshnyak" or, for that matter any of Serb neighbors. Being a Serb is something you learn, not something you are born with.

13 posted on 03/17/2002 6:53:26 PM PST by kosta50
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To: Tamodaleko
I admit, I have trouble with ethnic politics

Then leave this topic! Everything about Serbia and former Yugoslavia is ethnic-based, ethnic-driven, ethnic-influenced.

14 posted on 03/17/2002 6:57:46 PM PST by kosta50
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: joan
Thank you joan. Very interesting. Very intriguing.
16 posted on 03/17/2002 8:09:47 PM PST by kosta50
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To: joan; Tamodaleko
It has been the bread and butter of Jews to profit by demonizing Serbs. Even cheerleading the NATO attacks as the bombs fell and killed sick Serb children and injured newborn babies in hospitals.

You make the classic error of lumping all the jews together. The jews we all heard champing at the bit to blow Yugoslavia to pieces are the most 'vocal'. There were plenty of jews who were against the bombing, but with the level of demonization of the Serbs, it meant that putting your head over the parapet meant getting it blown off. As you know with propaganda, what you don't hear and who from is as important as what you do hear. Some of the Serbs greatest assets in the last decade were jews who have had to keep an extremely low profil and keep stum whilst the minority anti-semitic Serbs loudly proclaimed that the 'Jews' were against them.

It seems to me that you either failed to notice or ignored how the Israeli press was on the subject, a lot more subdued than the rantings coming out of the NYT et al. Israel had steady relations with the FRY and had good business contacts, though these were never highlighted apart from the rare mentions of 'Israeli businessmen' travelling to the FRY.

It also suprised me that you failed to notice the relative 'quietness' of the reform movement in the US. Many jews were and still are quitely pro-Serb but have not been able to let this be known publically for obvious reasons. By highlighting that Tamodaleko is jewish and then going on about how the Jews are anti-Serb, you are behaving in the same way as those who say that all Serbs are evil. If you are going to slam him, slam him on his argument. I really thought better of you. I was quite clearly mistaken.

VRN

17 posted on 03/18/2002 2:16:03 AM PST by Voronin
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To: kosta50; joan
Then leave this topic! Everything about Serbia and former Yugoslavia is ethnic-based, ethnic-driven, ethnic-influenced.

No, no Kosta, I'd like to discuss the ways to overcome ethnic politics in Serbia. You've said, 1/3 of Serbian constituency are non-Serbs. I say they are Serbs from different ethnic or religous backround. How do Serbian parties integrate that large Serbian constituency into their programs and thus undermine the "value" of minority ethnic voting blocks? And in the same time those Serbian parties that succed to attract voters from that large "non-Serb" constituency not be tagged as anti-Serb party?

It has been the bread and butter of Jews to profit by demonizing Serbs. Even cheerleading the NATO attacks as the bombs fell and killed sick Serb children and injured newborn babies in hospitals.

Joan, every now and then you do come up with a pearl ridicule.
Just to remind you the links (emperor's cloths) you often post to prove your arguments are from a lad that's Jewish. And are you suggesting Serbian Jews during the bombing were cheerleading NATO bombs? Shame on you.

18 posted on 03/18/2002 3:34:44 AM PST by Tamodaleko
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To: Tamodaleko, Joan
Joan, I gotta chime in and say you went a bit wrong with the Tamo-Jewish post, mainly trying to make the case that all Jewish people were anti-Serb in the breakup of the SFRY.

The American Jewish Leadership was sadly extremely vocal and exhibited the most rabid racist anti-Yugoslav/Serb tendencies during the 1990's and therefore they deserve condemnation. But, Israeli Leaders were neutral and some like Sharon pro-Belgrade.

Finally, one should also note that all the usual suspects among the US Protestant Leadership were also rabid anti-Yugoslav/Serb...........

19 posted on 03/18/2002 11:27:25 AM PST by vooch
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To: Tamodaleko, joan
My problem is not who is what nationality or ethnicity, but that everybody wants to make a big deal out of it. I don't have a problem that a Hungarian or Albanian or German from Vojvodina becomes a president of Serbia, as long as they consider themselves primarily citizens of Serbia. The problem is that Serbia can't easily become a melting pot, because all these different nationalities focus more on promoting their separate identities than on focusing on their country, which is Serbia, and how to make it better for everybody who lives in it.

If people of different ethnic origins keep insisting on going to schools where they are taught only in their own language, then they are willingily segregating themselves. How can they become, for example, a CEO of a major Serbian firm if they can't speak Serbian? Can a guy from India become a chief science officer in an American biotech company if he can't speak English?

For some reasons some ethnic groups in Serbia, like Albanians, claimed they were discriminated upon, when in most cases the main reason was that they couldn't speak Serbian and that's why they automaticaly disqualified themselves from many jobs.

I don't know if this is in anyway related to your discussions here, but that's what I think of ethnic problems in Serbia.

20 posted on 03/18/2002 2:28:14 PM PST by Leonora
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