Posted on 04/16/2002 10:05:02 PM PDT by veronica
Recently some news commentators have noted that the politics and conflict in the Middle East have made strange bedfellows. In the current confrontation between the Israelis and the Palestinians, American Jews are rallying support for Israel and are being supported most strongly, it appears, by conservatives and Republicans. Since Jews are overwhelmingly liberal and Democratic -- they voted four-to-one for Gore over Bush in the last presidential election -- this expression of support across the ideological divide is perceived by some commentators as unusual.
But an analysis of Gallup polls over the past decade and a half suggests that conservatives and Republicans in this country have persistently provided at least more verbal support for Israel than have Democrats and liberals.
Since 1988, when Gallup first asked Americans if their sympathies lay more with the Israelis or with the Palestinian Arabs, more Americans have sided with the Israelis than with the Palestinians. The percentages have varied, but the margin in favor of the Israelis has never fallen below 22 percentage points, while it reached a high of 48 points in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States. In the last 14 years, Republicans have always expressed relatively more sympathy for the Israelis over the Palestinians than have the Democrats. Similarly, the margin of support for Israelis has always been higher among conservatives than among liberals.
Middle East Sympathies Compared by Party
When Gallup first asked the question about people's sympathies in 1988, Republicans chose the Israelis by a margin of 43% to 15% -- a 28-point difference. Democrats expressed the same preference, although by a slightly smaller margin of 37% to 13% -- a 24-point difference. Five years later, in September 1993, the Israeli advantage among Republicans had climbed to 37 percentage points (49% to 12%), while among Democrats it had declined to 18 points (37% to 19%). Throughout the 1990s, Republicans consistently gave larger margins of support to the Israelis over the Palestinians than did the Democrats. Independents most often gave somewhat smaller margins of support than Democrats.
Sympathies in the Middle East:
Margin in Favor of the Israelis Over the Palestinians
Compared by Party
(See Gallup page for charts.)
After the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, support for the Israelis surged, but since then it has dropped considerably among independents and Democrats, while it has fluctuated among Republicans. In the last poll Republican support surged to the high levels it reached last fall.
Middle East Sympathies Compared by Political Ideology
The following chart shows a similar pattern among conservatives, moderates and liberals. The margins of support for the Israelis over the Palestinians are consistently and significantly higher among conservatives than among moderates, the next most supportive group. Liberals typically give the least amount of support, although there were two points in time when liberals gave slightly more support than moderates.
(See Gallup page for charts)
Sympathies in the Middle East:
Margin in Favor of the Israelis Over the Palestinians Compared by Ideology
All three ideological groups show a surge in support after the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, as well as a decline over the next few months. Still, the chart makes clear that conservatives continually express higher levels of sympathies for the Israelis than does either of the other two ideological groups.
Middle East Sympathies Compared by Approval of the President
Despite the largely Democratic orientation of American Jews, both Republican and Democratic presidents have followed foreign policies that are widely viewed as favoring Israel over its Arab nations. Thus, it might be expected that the president would have some influence over the attitudes of Americans toward Israel -- with those who generally approve of the president (the way he handles his job) indicating greater support for Israel than those who disapprove.
Sympathies in the Middle East: Margin in Favor of the Israelis Over the Palestinians Compared by Presidential Approval
But a review of Gallup polls finds that presidential approval is not related to support for Israel. As shown in the accompany chart, among those who approved of the way Bill Clinton handled his job as president, there was less relative support for Israel over the Palestinians than among Americans who disapproved of Clinton. Once George W. Bush assumed office, however, those who approve of his performance are more supportive of Israel than those who disapprove.
These results are consistent with the findings that political party and ideology are the factors that most strongly correlate with Middle East sympathies. As is well known, presidential approval is highly correlated with party and ideology. Democrats and liberals were much more likely to approve of the job being done by Clinton than were Republicans and conservatives, with the mirror image pattern occurring once Bush became president. These underlying patterns seem to be the most important. Any influence that an administration's generally pro-Israel policy might have on those who approve of that president, it appears, is minimal in the face of the strong underlying influence of party and ideology.
Race and Middle East Sympathies
A special analysis of the current poll shows that of all the possible factors that appear to be associated with one's sympathies, three are statistically most important: party affiliation, ideology and race, in that order. Although there are differences in support among Americans when compared by level of income, gender, education, age and geographical location (urban vs. rural), these factors are all of minimal influence in comparison with these three.
With respect to race, white Americans support Israelis over Palestinians by a margin of 54% to 12% -- a 42-point margin. Blacks and other minorities, by contrast, support Israelis by just a 13-point margin, 38% to 25%.
Sympathies in the Middle East are with:
(See Gallup page for charts)
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with – 1,009 national adults, aged 18+, conducted April 5-7, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?
(See Gallup page for charts)
Walked around the neighborhood in Palm Beach County tonight hoping to hear neurons snap,crackle and pop and heads explode but they must all simply be in cardiac arrest or shock.
O.K. fellow Freepers: Now is the time to recruit Moderate Jews to the Republican Party. My Gore-voting in-laws and liberal Reform Movement Rabbi friend are lining up behind GW. The looney left backing Pali terrorists gives us the first shot in decades to shave off the moderate pro-Israel Jews from the Democrats.
Find a Zionist, and pump him up with good red-white-and-blue pro-freedom pro-Israel support. "Come home to the Republican Party where the survival of Israel is our priority."
If we can up our support from ~10% to ~25% of Jews, that is a big swing. And, you know they're all rich......just kidding.
Shalom!
How so?
The poll appears to make two points.
1. The American public has been consistently inclined to support the Israelis as opposed to the Palestinians, by a generally large margin.
2. Republicans and conservatives have given substantially larger margins of support to the Israelis than have the Democrats and liberals. This, despite the voting patterns of most Jews.
Neither of these results is at all surprising. Indeed, it would have been a huge surprise had they been any other.
Americans, particularly Republicans and conservatives, will naturally favor the side of freedom and those who employ democratic institutions. Especially, when the other side is composed of tinhorn dictators and radicalized rabble.
Think I'm kidding don't you? I'm not. I've heard it many times.
During the presidential election of 2000, I was traveling on a train. Across the aisle from us were some elderly Jewish ladies. It was so funny to hear them talk. They were talking about the election (which was about 2 weeks away at the time) and one said, "well, Al Gore and...who's the other guy running?" The other woman said, "oh, I don't know...what's his name." I kid you not.
It normally creates more rise of a need or more government intervention upon the subject being polled based upon the results released. These findings have NEVER ensured American rights and liberties; polls normally strip it away though more legislative effort by wannabe lawmakers agreeing with everything they hear.
Since when did the GOP go into Identity Politics and what makes you think we can or should compete with the Democrats in that field? Do we want people in the party who do not share conservative philosophy but are in it for what they can get on one issue? Think we have a problem with Rhinos now, what will happen when we have a large contingent which is against lower taxes, against school choice, for abortion, for bigger government, for gun control, for affirmative action, for everything we are against?
Nobody is 100% pure. I'll take 60%. But one issue? Much as the votes and donations would be nice, I don't see the point. Unless you want John McCain or worse for President in 2004.
Its still early to tell, but if I had to guess there is indeed a reallignment occuring within the Jewish community over Israel further buttressed by race politics, affirmative action, personal responsibility, and the demise of the staunch FDR elderly. When Jack Kemp, Dick Army and flyover state legislators appear to be stronger supporters of Israel than the Daschles and Bidens, Jews take note.
Think I'm kidding don't you? I'm not. I've heard it many times.
My, my, you must really be some kind of talented fellow to put Jews at such a level of ease to have them reveal such personal socio/political feelings. You're a man for all seasons and circumstances...I pegged you wrong. LOL
So now we come to the polls which show that Republicans approximately support Isreal 5 times to 1 over democrats, not to mention that some elements of the democrat party and their base are outwardly hostile to Isreal, bordering anti-Semitism. Polls also show that if you are a white southern male you are more likely to support Isreal and if you are a northeast female liberal you are a backstabbing witch. It will be interesting to see how the voting patterns shake in the next 4 years or so.
That is the key. Reagan brought many of today's Jewish Republicans into the fold. He expressed what many moderate Jews felt - that the Democratic Party had turned so far to the Left (which is why HE left the Democratic party) that the GOP was the only sane alternative.
Occassionally, I'm swayed by the lure of pure votes, and I understand your aversion. But I think there is more here than pandering, and I suggest we play it up.
I hope this explanation clears up any misunderstanding.
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