Scientists' deaths are under the microscope (11 Microbiologists mysteriously dead within 5 months)

The Globe & Mail ^ | May 4, 2002 | Alanna Mitchell, et al

[Seeking the truth]

You gotta watch out for that "black goo". Remember, the Russians were working on it.

[Seeking the truth]

I started out as a Biology major way back when Watson & Crick discovered the double helix.

[steamroller]

Back in 1966 I took a course in parasitology and got an A.Later when I went to Vietnam I wished I hadn't learned so much about malaria and liver flukes,etc.-it was more thn I needed to know.:)

[thinden]

bttt

[rdavis84]

"It's a tale only the best conspiracy theorist could dream up."

Did youse guys do it?

[The Great Satan]

When you Absolutely, Positively have to get rid of somebody, leave it to the Brits and Ruskies!!!

The Israelis are pretty good at it, too: Gerald Bull, Gunsmith

[ez]

Seeking the Truth bump...

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

This theory is B.S. It's kinda like trying to connect hundreds of deaths to the Clintons when they are just coincidences, never mind the astronomical odds. (/sarcasm)

HehHeh!

Here's my guesses:

1) Al-Queda?

2) Saddam?

3) Al Gore?

4) VRWC Inc.?

[null and void]

Also posted here:

Scientists' deaths are under the microscope

See for additional comments

[tyen]

So how many microbiologists of note died, say, during the previous couple of years or so?

You do not need to know that death rate, only the death rate among the general population to determine the statistical likelihood of this cluster of deaths happening in the observed timeframe. This post from Slashdot is a reasonable back of the envelope estimation of the odds.

For those who do not want to click through, here is the executive summary:

Death rate among 45-64 cohort due to all causes is 708 per 10,000 in general population (source). Factor out medical causes, and it reaches about 200 per 10,000. About 20,000 microbiologists working in the United States. Premise: about half (or 10,000) are over 40. Premise: about half of this over-40 group are prominent enough to attract attention, leaving about 5,000. Premise: rate of death amongst microbiologists is roughly the same as the general population. Observed time frame is 5 months; annual rate of death would be about 10, over 5 months would be about 4.2 deaths.

Using a Poisson distribution ("bell curve" in layman's terms, though that is a rather extreme oversimplification), the probability of 11 deaths in 5 months is about 0.2%. Two-tenths of one percent is about the same probability of drawing two pairs in seven card stud poker, or less than the chance of a major hurricane with 111 mph winds or faster passing within 75 miles of Portland, Maine in any one year.

[ofMagog]

No one listens to me.
I tried to tell them 1848 would be a bad year.
Sure enough, everyone born that year died!

[Aurelius]

BUMP

[umgud]

Yup......Al Queda or Saddamn

[mewzilla]

I'm not sure I agree with your premise. Say for example, microbiologists drive more than the general populace. Wouldn't that increase their likelyhood of being in a car accident? I doubt a guy who travels a lot/goes to foreign countries/risks exposure to dangerous pathogens is at the same risk as a small-town librarian who never goes anywhere. But hey, I got a C in statistics, so what do I know? Let me see the death rate and causes for other ex-microbiologists. That'll simplify things for me :)

[The Great Satan]

Your numbers are about right, but the hurricane example points up the flaw in the argument. What are the chances that a hurricane will pass within 75 miles of any city comparable to Portland, Maine in hurricane susceptibility in any given year? Probably quite high. The problem is that no adjustment is made for the vast array of equally improbable and retrospectively striking coincidences that could occur in the universe of observables. This problem plagues scientific research (especially medical research) and explains why false positive results are far more common than one would believe if one took published P values at face value.

[Nachum]

Posted this before here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/678144/posts

But it deserves posting again. BTTT. Not to make light of it, but reminds me of that old tv show "V", where the aliens killed all the scientists.

[MarkWar]

>Not to make light of it, but reminds me of that old tv show "V", where the aliens killed all the scientists.

Two months ago, in New Scientist magazine, they reported how a few years ago, France backed out on a deal to supply nuclear technology to Iran. After France announced their intentions to back out of the deal, a bunch of "random" terrorist attacks inside France killed a four or five scientists and businessmen behind the decision to get out of the deal. After the deaths -- which the French press insisted were unrelated -- the French government overturned its own plans to back out of the deal and DID supply the technology and know-how to Iran.

I'm sorry to say, but in the modern world, terror works.

When a bunch of smart people die -- and it's happened in the West before, too, remember all those "star wars" specialist who died in freaky ways? -- it's almost certainly not "coincidence."

Mark W.

[Nogbad]

Just goes to show
statistics can be used to prove
or disprove anything.

I wish someone would start a study
of mysterious deaths
amongs prominent veterinarians.

I suspect the results would be surprising.

[boris]

"Sure enough, everyone born that year died!"

Inscription on the tombstone of a hypochondriac: "See, I told you I was sick!"

--Boris