Posted on 05/13/2002 2:49:52 PM PDT by jonatron
Nuclear proliferation, not US policy, has marginalized the MAD theory. At the heart of MAD is the expectation that combatants will 1) survive a first strike with the ability to counter attack and 2) behave rationally. Neither applies to N. Korea, Pakistan or Iraq (if it succeeds in going nuclear). MAD is no longer possible where the most probable threat resides.
I haven't studied nuclear scenarios in almost 20 years, but loosing 90% in a first strike seems unlikely. By the time relations with the USSR deteriorate to that level, we'd have our Tridents and air craft carriers at sea, B52s back up and circling, and perhaps be prepared to launch ICBMs on warning. Even in the exceptionally unlikely USSR surprise strike during peacetime scenario, I don't think there's any doubt that they would cease to exist as a governable nation the next day. You don't need to take my word for this. Just recognize that if this 2/3s reduction really did threaten our security, huge portions of our retired military would be protesting it, not just a few commander wannabes and fringe ideologies.
{Smile} And I still put '2001' on checks.
At that level they all are. McNamara was a genius, and shouldn't have been let out without his mother. Geniuses need to be watched closely. Genius plus power is an explosive combination.
Iran, Iraq and anyone else China decides to bump into the nuclear club as they did Pakistan.
Take a look at the land mass Russia and China make up by themselves and tell me 500 MIRVed missiles will suffice. When it comes to first strike and response, plus second waves the 500 missiles are too thin to intimidate people out of taking a chance.
People are convincing themselves that they will be safer with fewer. That fact is the fewer the more thinkable. Now that's scarey!
I'd put it more like this, during the heighth of the Cold War, we faced the Soviet Union, China, North Koreah, East Germany, and a host of other communist nations. Today, we face China, N Korea, and a host of Muslim nations.
Notice Russia is not on today's list, in my version. In case you forgot, our two nations are closer than at any time since the end of WWII. And I call that a very good thing. I wish you would recognize the same. Good day sir.
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