I wouldn't even call this pessimistic, just realistic. That makes me feel confident the White House and GOP are taking 2002 seriously. Hutchinson and Smith are both vulnerable - no doubt about it. Both seats can definitely be retained, however, if things go well. I do not feel Maine is at risk at all, nor NC very much. But TX? That's a seat that worries me.
What's not discussed here is how much more vulnerable the Dems are. MO, SD, MN, NJ, MT maybe IA, GA and IL.