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To: CHICAGOFARMER
In the aftermath of the 1930's and the 1970's, you could retrospectively identify the major economic damage that the bear markets in those years were discounting. In the 70's, it was the damage to assets caused by LBJ's guns-and-socialism inflation and continued high taxation in a confrontational international environment.

I do see some areas where concern leading to correction could come from. The status of the dollar as a reserve currency makes the U.S. markets more beholden to foreign opinion of the dollar and our market. Bad loans worldwide could be brought to account, Japan leading the list but American banks participating in a huge writedown. Some combination of the two could drive U.S. interest rates higher despite Fed action -- the bond market could effectively do what the Fed, in its mistaken policy, did in 1929 and 1930 when it tightened in the face of need for liquidity. Inflation could return, driven by foreign markets' repatriation of dollars. It could be any number of things -- but I don't see the underlying damage to the world economies that was caused by World War I and its huge war debts (which caused widespread devaluation or delinking of world currencies from gold and silver), or to the U.S. economy in the 70's by the discounting of the Vietnamese War's economic cost, with the first OPEC oil shock piled on top of that, all under the cloud of perpetual confrontation with the Soviets, who had achieved strategic superiority in their nuclear arsenal while we fought in Vietnam. There are a lot more favorable underlying economic realities this time around. It would take war with China, and possibly the use of nuclear weapons, to set economic confidence back the way it was in the 1930's -- are those scenarios likely ?

20 posted on 06/23/2002 11:04:20 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus
There's a whole lot of fiat money been printed these last decades. It wasn't until the early 70's, as I recall, that Nixon unlinked the ability for foreign dollar holders to exchange for gold. I am more optimistic about gold than you, and less optimistic about the dollar, over the next ten years.
30 posted on 06/23/2002 12:19:49 PM PDT by ThePythonicCow
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