RE: THE MEAT AND POTATOES STRATEGY By JAMES CARVILLE, STANLEY GREENBERG, and ROBERT SHRUM

We may finally be entering a period where tactics can shift the Congressional elections – perhaps decisively – in favor of Democrats. As the President’s popularity begins to ease and as the challenge overseas becomes more complicated and protracted, there is reason to believe that people are turning to the domestic issues where Democrats score strongly. As a result, Democrats are poised to make gains by focusing on a sharply defined set of attacks and proposals. Rather than committing all its resources to the big war on the budget and economy, Democrats should defeat the Republicans in a series of critical battles over Social Security and prescription drugs, pensions, the environment and corporate influence, and tax cuts. This may be a meat and potatoes election for the Democrats, who really can win back the Congress in 2002.

The Democrats have moved ahead in the generic Congressional race – 4 points in the Democracy Corps poll and a comparable amount in the average of all public polls over the past two weeks.1 As we shall see below, this is due to a shift in the issue environment, not yet due to the efforts of Democrats. For example, Democrats have yet to make gains on handling the economy, handling the budget and deficits, domestic issues in general, or in fighting special interest influence in Washington.

Indeed, the rules of the game are changing, and as a result, Democrats are now moving up. We thought Democrats could have been heard earlier had they joined a national debate on the budget, economy, taxes and the country’s priorities, but that time passed and we cannot go back. There are new opportunities in this election year. They are not as historic, but they are powerful nonetheless and can decide this election for the Democrats.

We urge progressives and Democrats to pay attention to the issue grid we advance on page 4. There is a way to win these elections.

While it is early to say for sure that these trends are decisive, let us illustrate the patterns that are changing the Democrats’ fortunes – even without a major engagement on the big issues.

1. The fading "economic issue." Probably the most important and most counterintuitive development in this election year is the role of the economy as an issue. Though the economy could still falter, voters are now less worried about a recession and more optimistic about the future. The Republicans have actually made gains on the issue. But reduced worry about the economy – without a period of more robust growth – allows voters to shift their attention away from employment to other areas of uncertainty, like retirement and health care costs. A similar thing happened to the Democrats in 1994, when early in the recovery, attention shifted away from the economy to crime, moral decline and big government. President Clinton and the Democrats only began to benefit from the economy when voters began to see year-on-year visible growth and Republicans failed to raise alternative salient issues.

When we look at predictive models that indicate how people form their views of the parties and Congressional voting, the determinative issues include (in rank order importance): which party is on your side, who is addressing America’s domestic problems, which party is better on retirement security and Social Security and which party is better on the budgets and deficits. Which party is better on the economy did not emerge as a significant predictor of this year’s vote.

2. The unsettled international environment. The President and Republicans gained while the international stage allowed the country to rally against the September 11th attacks and to fight a clear, determined and successful war against terrorism. But that stage, not surprisingly, is now dominated by events where there is less certainty, a lot of violence, less respect for America, and less confidence in the Administration’s direction. The President’s job approval ratings on foreign affairs are dropping. To be sure, voters are not voting for Congress based on these foreign policy developments, but they may be turning away from international issues and focusing even more closely on domestic issues.

3. Corporate influence and the 3 E’s: environment, energy, and Enron. Do not underestimate the power of the environmental issue to reveal the character and lack of balance in the deliberations of the Bush White House and the Republicans in Congress. Before September 11th, George W. Bush was slipping badly in the polls, largely because of the Administration’s energy policy that favored oil and coal interests over those of the country. These issues are back, reinforced by a broad pattern of excessive corporate influence from Enron to oil drilling in environmental areas. As a result, which party is on your side has emerged (in our regression model) as the most important factor in predicting this year’s Congressional vote.

4. Return to traditional Democratic issues. The Democrats continue to maintain their gigantic lead on a range of domestic issues that may be emerging as the agenda for this year’s election. As we can see in the graph, the Democrats are up by 23 points on energy and the environment, 23 points on health care and prescription drugs and 15 points on retirement and Social Security.

Based on this survey and others for Democracy Corps, it is possible to construct the issue grid that will elect Democrats in 2002. Remembering that it is the Republicans who are in power in Washington, Democrats should run in the first instance, on stopping Republicans from doing things that will hurt people and the country. That is the reason to vote them out. Democrats will also need to advance an agenda that largely mirrors the attacks – giving Americans a reason to put the Democrats in, so they can make progress on security retirement, health care costs, education, and middle class tax cuts.

Plenty of crying on why not to vote for the other guy - but not ONE reason to vote FOR Libdem/Chicoms.

They still don't have an issue to run on.

2 posted on 07/07/2002 3:26:29 PM PDT by Libloather

They should have captioned it: MR. POTATO HEAD (Carville) REACHES INTO HIS OLD BAG OF TRICKS

4 posted on 07/07/2002 3:32:32 PM PDT by GaltMeister

Dontchya know you're gonna shock the monkey?

5 posted on 07/07/2002 3:47:32 PM PDT by Paul Atreides

in'san'i'ty
n., Repeating past actions while expecting different results.

Not just old, but still filled with the same tired LIES, LIES, LIES!!

I just don't see them making any headway in the election.

8 posted on 07/07/2002 5:48:28 PM PDT by Brilliant

Sometimes these D's just have their head on backwards.

Sometimes????

Remember these idiots have been more than willing to stifle domestic production of oil/gas.

Sometimes these D's just have their head on backwards.

If you mean that they ain't too bright about energy, then MEGADITTOS!

They ain't bright about anything else, either.

10 posted on 07/07/2002 6:53:00 PM PDT by Ole Okie

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