Analysis / Diplomatic maintenance

Ha'aretz Daily ^ | 8/25/02 | Aluf Benn

[NormsRevenge]

The "Gaza and Bethlehem First" gradual cease-fire plan screeched to a halt this weekend, amid accusations and counter-accusations by Israel and the Palestinian Authority about unfulfilled promises. Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer isn't disappointed about the delays. He intends to continue with the initiative, and also with his meetings with Mohammed Dahlan and other PA figures. Ben-Eliezer believes that the plan's implementation needs more time.

In contrast, some diplomatic sources believe that serious hopes should not be fastened upon the Gaza and Bethlehem First plan, so long as the PA avoids conflict with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. "Either they [PA officials] fight against Hamas, or against us. There's no other way," one top Israeli official said.

This sober estimate is accepted by U.S. government officials. The Americans responded favorably to the gradual cease-fire proposal; but Bush administration officials believe that so long as the PA lacks resolve to crack down on terror organizations, it will be difficult for the sides to get back to the peace process track. The U.S. officials do not expect a breakthrough between the Israelis and Palestinians in the near future. Washington's biggest hope at this point is for a scaled-down conflict; the Americans do not want a conflagration between Israel and the PA to disrupt regional stability, as the Bush administration plans a possible attack against Iraq.

This week David Satterfield, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, will come to the area on a "diplomatic maintenance" mission. His visit is to demonstrate that the U.S. is taking steps to calm down the conflict between Israel and the PA, and to promote PA reforms; on the other hand, the visit suggests that Washington is keeping a relatively low profile, and is not sending top-ranking officials at this stage. CIA director George Tenet, who is involved in the planning the PA security reform, does not want to visit the region now.

Officials in Washington have formulated a detailed outline for the implementation of principles outlined in President Bush's speech on June 24. One senior U.S. official says that this outline is acceptable to Israel; the agreement, the official explains, reflects close coordination between Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and the U.S.

Sharon has persuaded U.S. officials that an interim prime minister ought to be appointed for the PA; such a move would constitute an important step toward the ousting of Yasser Arafat, and the implementation of substantive political reforms in the PA, Sharon argues.

At the crux of the U.S. outline are PA elections, which have been tentatively scheduled for spring 2003. The elections are supposed to be part of a comprehensive program, which will include an Israeli withdrawal to positions its army held before the intifada, support from states in the region, and the return of ambassadors from Jordan and Egypt to Tel Aviv.

Arafat and his associates want speedy elections which (they believe) will consolidate their positions and renew their public mandate. The Americans don't want PA residents to cast ballots before the PA has completed a series of reforms, including the passage of a new election law. Such reforms, Washington hopes, will furnish Arafat nothing more than a role as a symbolic president - Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has dubbed this prospective role "the King of Spain."

Washington's position is that "Arafat is out," and that there will be no backtracking on the policy of avoiding conflict with him. Acordingly, Satterfield will meet this week with top Palestinians, but not with the PA chairman. European officials also concur that Arafat must be removed from a substantive role; the European Union accepts the American proposal favoring a change in the Palestinian election system.

In Jerusalem, officials understand that should the Palestinians undertake security and political reforms, and crack down on terror, international pressure will mount for Israel to reciprocate and meet some Palestinian demands. The call for a "provisional" Palestinian state could be sounded anew; pressure could be applied for compliance with the target date, June 2005, which Bush has set for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Meanwhile, however, such a date seems far off; elections in Israel and the U.S. are to be held before then, and the depth of Bush's commitment to creating a "new order" in the region will be tested by his decision to attack, or not attack, Iraq.