Posted on 08/30/2002 7:20:03 PM PDT by knighthawk
Opinion polls in Turkey say the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party will probably win emergency elections due in November, as Islamic politics fill the vacuum created by a failure of political leadership.
Turkey is unique, a secular democracy in an Islamic nation.
It is a key strategic ally of the US which borders Iraq. It cannot be allowed to fail - hence the massive loan from the International Monetary Fund which is saving Turkey from defaulting on its international debts.
But Turkey's current leaders are accused of failing the nation, especially the poor and oppressed.
Opinion polls say the Justice and Development Party (or AK Party) could poll up to 30% of the vote.
With more than 20 parties in the race, that could leave AK with half the seats in parliament, and heading the next government.
No way out
In Istanbul's Gazi slum district, 18-year-old Meryem spoke of her grievances, which are sending her and thousands of others into the arms of the AK Party.
She suffers discrimination because of her attachment to a symbol of her faith.
"I wear an Islamic headscarf because the Koran says women should cover themselves," she says.
"When we were told to take off our headscarves I was in despair, but there is no way out."
Meryem was forced to give up her place at a university.
She is also barred from any government job, as Islamic-style headscarves are banned in all state institutions.
Most Turks now see the army-imposed ban as wrong.
Grassroots network
In a crowded coffee house in Gazi the local AK Party chief, Yavuz Subasi is making many new recruits among the slum-dwellers.
After years of economic crisis, most are out of work and desperate.
The state provides no effective welfare. But the Justice and Development Party has a grassroots network which gets food and other basics to the most needy.
And it promises to end the corruption and mismanagement in politics which have thrown millions into poverty.
The Turkish lira has collapsed to about one fifth of its value three years ago.
Foreign investment is scarce. The outgoing prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, has seen his coalition government collapse from in-fighting and multiple scandals.
He has hinted that if the AK Party wins the coming election, the army might step in again - as it did five years ago - to safeguard Turkey's secular modernity.
Sharia sympathy
The AK Party's deputy leader, Abdullah Gul, was in the strongly Islamic-flavoured government headed by the Welfare Party which was ousted by the generals in 1997.
"When the army gets involved in politics we don't like it. We will do our job and they will do theirs," he told me.
The Welfare Party flirted with fundamentalism by seeking a leadership role for Turkey in the Islamic world, and showing sympathy for parts of Sharia law.
Mr Gul insists that the newly-formed AK Party is committed to the secular creed of Kemal Ataturk, known as the "father of modern Turkey".
But AK does want to lift the ban on wearing Islamic scarves in state buildings.
"It's not good that a Turkish girl who wears a scarf cannot go to university in Turkey, but she can in London, Paris, Bonn or Washington," says Abdullah Gul.
Pressure on EU
The AK Party has an unexpected ally in the European Union, which has laws upholding religious freedom. A few weeks ago, the Justice and Development Party helped to vote through parliament a package of liberalising reforms aimed at speeding up Turkey's application to join the EU.
It commits Turkey to abolishing the death penalty and recognising the language rights of its Kurdish minority.
The changes in the law were timed to put pressure on EU leaders before a summit in December, when they must decide whether to accept Turkey's application to join this "European club".
Turkey now sternly demands a date for accession talks to begin, despite its chronic economic and administrative problems.
Factionalism
There is a danger that Turkey's political leaders may try to blame their own failures on the EU. They have sapped the nation's economic strength, and may pay a high price on election day.
Faced with the prospect of defeat at the hands of the Justice and Development Party, leading pro-Western politicians are holding a dizzy series of meetings.
The aim is to form a new alliance which would please the IMF and Turkey's friends in the West.
But factionalism and rivalry among the party leaders are preventing such an alliance from being born.
Meanwhile, millions of Turks feel forgotten or scorned - especially the young, the very poor, the Kurds and the Islamists.
They have stopped listening to the politicians' empty promises.
Turkey faces a narrow road to a more secure future.
William Horsley reported from Istanbul for BBC World's Europe Direct
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