TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS IN GULF OF MEXICO (10 p.m. Bulletin)

National Weather Service | Sept. 5, 2002 | National Weather Service

[varina davis]

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT THU SEP 05 2002

...TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF THE SEASON...FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MATAGORDA TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX TO TROPICAL STORM FAY.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIAMTED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

FAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...BUT ONLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...28.0 N... 93.3 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[varina davis]

Looks like the GOM storm is strengthening and has moved slightly to the SE since the previous update. Pressure is now down to 1006.

[hole_n_one]

[hole_n_one]

[ValerieUSA]

That looks interesting

[blam]

Maybe a 'crossfire' hurricane like ol Mick sang about.

[Aggie Mama]

We haven't had a drop of rain even though this has been sitting off our coast for the past few days.

[blam]

"We haven't had a drop of rain even though this has been sitting off our coast for the past few days."

We've got one over here too. No rain either.

[dennis1x]

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2002



a reconnaissance plane has been flying through and around the
tropical cyclone and found a band of flight-level winds of 40 to 45
knots...and a peak of 52 knots...as it was approaching the area of
the depression earlier tonight. Since then Max winds are about 40
knots. These winds are limited to the area to the north of the
circulation. Although surface and upper-air reports clearly show a
large circulation...the reconnaissance plane has not been able to
find a well-defined tight center. If the cyclone is not a tropical
storm now...it probably will be soon...so might as well name it now.
Overall the surface pressures are falling in the area and the
upper-level environment appears to be favorable for development.
Therefore..some strengthening is indicated.

The poorly defined center has been meandering for the past few hours
and by no means is there high confidence in the location while the
cyclone is organizing. Steering currents are expected to remain
weak and little motion is anticipated during the next 12 hours. A
slow northwestward drift should begin on Friday. This slow motion
will allow for the possibility of a severe flooding event along the
Texas and/or Louisiana coast.
Forecaster Avila/knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/0300z 28.0n 93.3w 35 kts
12hr VT 06/1200z 28.0n 93.1w 45 kts
24hr VT 07/0000z 28.8n 94.2w 50 kts
36hr VT 07/1200z 29.5n 95.0w 50 kts...inland
48hr VT 08/0000z 30.0n 95.5w 30 kts...inland
72hr VT 09/0000z 30.5n 96.5w 30 kts...inland

[varina davis]

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2002

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON...

...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...BRAZORIA...
CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...LIBERTY AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MATAGORDA TEXAS TO
INTERCOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

...PREPAREDNESS/EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...

GALVESTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS RECOMMENDING VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA TOMORROW. OTHER LOW-LYING
LOCATIONS SUCH AS TIKI ISLAND AND BAYOU VISTA SHOULD BE ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS TOMORROW.

THE CITY OF GALVESTON IS RECOMMENDING VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF
THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND TONIGHT.

REMAINING COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.CURRENT STORM INFORMATION...
.LOCATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 28.0
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST OR 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON.

.MOVEMENT...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT FORECAST TO
BEGIN A NORTHWEST MOVEMENT LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THIS
MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY.

.WINDS...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDES...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUM
TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN THE 3.0 TO
5.5 FOOT RANGE. FOR SITE SPECIFIC DETAILS SEE THE TABLE BELOW.

LOCATION NEXT HIGH TIDE ASTRONOMICAL FORECASTED TIDE LEVEL
(FRIDAY) PREDICTED ABOVE MLLW
LEVELS

PLEASURE PIER 436 AM 2.8 FEET 4.5-5.5 FEET
GLS CHANNEL 530 AM 1.7 FEET 3.5-4.5 FEET
PORT BOLIVAR 1011 AM 1.3 FEET 3.0-4.0 FEET
JAMAICA BEACH 807 AM 1.2 FEET 3.0-4.0 FEET
EAGLE POINT 923 AM 1.2 FEET 3.0-4.0 FEET
CLEAR LAKE 1134 AM 1.1 FEET 3.0-4.0 FEET
MORGANS POINT 350 PM 1.2 FEET 3.0-4.0 FEET
SAN LUIS PASS 520 AM 1.4 FEET 3.5-4.5 FEET
FREEPORT 445 AM 2.2 FEET 4.0-5.0 FEET


AT THESE FORECAST LEVELS...PARTS OF HIGHWAY 87 ON THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE...PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN
SEABROOK WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE. ALSO...SOME ROADS ON THE WEST
END OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND SURFSIDE WILL FLOOD.

...RAINFALL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ALONG THE COAST WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT FURTHER INLAND DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THE STORM FOLLOW THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
TOTAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...WINDS...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE UPPER COAST WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 40 MPH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

[dennis1x]

I usually play down the typical overhype of these things but i have a bad feeling about this one. From a rain standpoint with the center projected to move directly over Houston and take a good 48 hours to clear the general area rainfall totals and flooding could get really bad.

[seeker41]

Please, not another "Allison", we had 11 inches in my neck of the woods in about 6 hours on June 1st, 2001.

[weegee]

Don't expect the city to provide adequate drainage to accomedate new high density townhome construction. There are subdivisions that were annexed decades ago that never got their city services.

Meanwhile another stadium goes up.

[dennis1x]

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 06, 2002



...Fay strengthens...additional watches and warnings issued...
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
southward to Port Aransas Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in
effect from Port Aransas to Intracoastal City Louisiana.

At 10 am CDT...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from port oconnor
to High Island Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area.
Reports from an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft...as
well as surface reports and radar imagery...indicate that Fay is
beginning to get better organized.
At 10 am CDT...the still ill-defined center of Tropical
Storm Fay was located near latitude 27.9 north...longitude 95.0
west or about 95 miles south of Galveston Texas.
Fay is moving toward the west near 2 mph. Because the center of Fay
is so poorly defined...changes in the location of the center do
not necessarily represent the true motion of the overall weather
system. A slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is
expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...with higher gusts. Some
additional increase in strength is expected during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles...mainly
to the north and northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was
1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations in association with Fay of 4 to 8
inches are expected...mainly north of the center...with some locally
higher amounts of 10 to 15 inches.
Tide gauge observations from Port Isabel to Sabine Pass Texas show
that storm surge is now 1 to 2 feet above the normal tide level.
The storm surge is forecast to reach 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels in the warning area.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southwestern
Louisiana and southeastern Texas today.

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...27.9 N... 95.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

[RnMomof7]

Could this affect SanAntiono and Austin ( My Texas Geography is not great..but they are "near " Houston )..do I need to be concerned for friends and family down there?

[jragan2001]

Don't feel too bad. We have been in an astronomical
drought here in the "desert region" of metro Atlanta
and we are about to set a record for the DRIEST four
year record since records were kept in the 1800's.
It's so bad that even parts of Southern California,
which almost never gets rain this time of year, has
more rain than Atlanta has recently. Maybe it's time
to bail on this area before it gets worse.

[blam]

We've had a 3.5 year drought here too. It's seems to have broken a little this year. I have a 17 acre lake in my front yard that damn near dried up. Now, water is going over the spill-way again for the first time in over three years. It used to run over continuously.