Retain the House
Posted on 09/10/2002 12:12:03 PM PDT by rightwing2
Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries
By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner and Marc Ambinder
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10 — It's primary day in a dozen states — the biggest primary day of the midterm election year.
New Hampshire
The Granite State's Republican Senate primary, in which Rep. John Sununu is challenging incumbent Senator Bob Smith, is the Tuesday contest packing the most national significance, and will be watched closely by the GOP's top operatives, including those at the White House. If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992. Most Establishment Republicans have banked on the CW that Sununu, and not Smith, could better defend this seat for the GOP against Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen.
With Democrats controlling the Senate by just one seat, and the pool of close races this year pretty evenly split between the two parties, control of the chamber could well boil down to New Hampshire and the identity of the GOP standard-bearer. Hanging the balance: President Bush's judicial nominees, including any US Supreme Court nominees he may have to pick over the next two years, and the bulk of his domestic agenda.
So it is not without pain that Sununu's supporters have watched over the last few weeks as Sununu's formerly comfortable polling lead over Smith has dissipated, and as Smith maintained his overpowered fundraising lead over the challenger. All of which points to the possible CW-busting reality that while the identity of the Republican nominee obviously matters, it won't necessarily determine their chances of holding onto this Senate seat.
The Granite State also is hosting an open race for governor and for a US House seat this year. Depending on how the primaries shake out, Democrats may wind up with women nominees for both House races, the Senate race, and the gubernatorial contest. Republican Senate primary As we said above, many political operatives of both parties have long viewed the close battle for Senate control as possibly boiling down to this state — and more specifically, this primary.
Smith's support among some independents, who are allowed to vote in primaries here, and among certain single-issue Republican voters, may buoy him in this contest. Smith's standing among Republicans dropped after he left the GOP in 2000 to run for president as an independent. When he returned to the party, he cast some centrist votes that further irritated Granite State conservatives, and Sununu decided to challenge him.
Smith, however, has run a hard-charging, sometimes negative campaign, and seems to have a better organization. He convinced Rudy Giuliani to endorse him, and has the public support of the White House, even if Administration operatives make it plain that they were forced to endorse him because he is an incumbent, and that they actually prefer Sununu.
Some of Smith's Senate colleagues have endorsed Sununu, and he has received contributions from former President Bush and other notables. As the son of the former White House chief of staff, he has his family pedigree, as well as the backing of the influential Manchester Union Leader. But he (Sununu) has had trouble raising money, and Smith has pounded him on votes related to terrorism, immigration, and the Middle East that some have charged are out of line (Sununu is a Lebanese-American). Even so, the accusations seem to have thrown Sununu off a bit.
If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.
Give it a rest. You don't get to vote, now or on Nov. 5. Some of us prefer Sununu, some of us prefer Smith.
Whomever wins, let's support the winner against the Democrat Shaheen.
We will have to work harder against Shaheen if he wins today, no doubt about it. But John Sununu has already shown disturbing signs of "growing in office", which can only worsen if he is a Senator.
What an interesting concept! :-p
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy that certain establishment Republicans and their FReeper butt buddies wish to continue ad nauseum -- Putting up a mushy RINO and then whining because principled voters couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for the lesser of two evils. Losing elections by forcing principled people to stay home appears to be the future of the GOP. How unfortunate.
Most of the violently anti-Sununu folks here seem to have never been to New Hampshire, let alone are residents of it. Sounds like the DU is active here.
I see. Sununu's "mushy" because he didn't leave the Republican party, but Smith is "solid" because he did stomp out of the GOP like a crybaby.
Perverse thinking.
I voiced a similar concern last week. It may simply be their desperation coming through. I don't know. But I got the impression Sununu's backers would begrudgingly support Smith, but that it wouldn't necessarily go the other way. Let's hope we're wrong if Smith does pull the upset today.
You allege that putting Sununu up as the candidate could result in a loss for the GOP on the one hand while claiming he's a better candidate than Smith on the other. Logic is not your strong point it appears. If you're so worried about the seat staying in GOP hands, support Smith!
:-)
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