[Coop]

Bader [a GOP consultant], however, conceded that Zarelli faces a difficult battle with Baird, a well-known, well-financed incumbent. "This is the kind of year that would tend to favor incumbents," he said. "Voter attitudes are showing us that there really isn't a 'throw the bums' out attitude."

This consultant feels differently than Zogby and some others.

[BlackRazor]

This consultant feels differently than Zogby and some others.

It probably depends on what issue is foremost on the voters' minds. If it is the economy, corporate scandals, state budget deficits, etc., I would tend to go along with the anti-incumbent sentiment. If it is the war on terrorism, national security, Iraq, etc., I would say that would favor incumbents. Not surprisingly, the Dem-leaning consultants think it will be the former, while the GOP-leaning consultants think it will be the latter. :)

BTW, I do have WA-3 on my list of long-shot races. I'm not seriously expecting it to be competitive, but it's one of those that could conceivably become competitive in the right circumstances (e.g. massive anti-incumbent wave, etc.). Bush won this district 48-46 over Gore.