Posted on 09/17/2002 12:36:57 PM PDT by Gothmog
House Speaker Dennis Hastert is both wrestling against history and fighting for his political life as he tries to win a third term at the helm of Congress' lower chamber. The 60-year-old former history teacher from Yorkville is well aware that history is against him.
Since the throes of the Civil War, the president's party has lost House seats in every first mid-term election except for 1934. And Hastert, a Republican like President Bush, holds only a six-seat majority, leaving little margin for error heading into the Nov. 5 mid-term election.
He's also aware of another trend: when a speaker relinquishes the gavel, he usually retires. His three predecessors all did.
Will Hastert, whose district includes Kane and western DuPage counties, do the same if the GOP loses control of the House? His camp isn't denying the possibility outright.
"Certainly, we don't expect that to happen, but the speaker is someone who re-evaluates his options as circumstances change," Hastert spokesman John McGovern said.
But leading the minority party in the House typically requires a fair amount of public mud-flinging at the opposition. Although he's always left little doubt he's a Republican, Hastert's political skills tend toward the pragmatic: compromise and pushing through legislation.
And despite his lofty position, Hastert has purposely shied away from becoming a regular on the televised political squawk-fest circuit, a role that usually falls to the minority leader to marshal public sentiment to his party's side.
Combine those factors with Hastert's recent decision to put his house along the Fox River up for sale in favor of a Kendall County farmstead, and it's apparent a whole lot is riding on the 435 individual House races voters will decide around the nation in just seven weeks.
If Hastert does indeed walk away from the political spotlight, analysts and his colleagues say it would be a tremendous loss for the suburbs and the state.
"It's good for the state to have people in positions of leadership where they can use their influence," said Arlington Heights Republican Ed Murnane, a former member of first Bush administration. "They're going to remember the people where they came from and they're going to look out for the people who elected them. It's impossible to say that taking him away would not have an impact."
Hastert has brought back funding for a Lincoln presidential library in Springfield. Last year, Hastert used his political muscle to assist efforts to block construction of a landfill in Bartlett. And it is Hastert's influence in Washington that has advanced efforts to expand O'Hare International Airport. The legislation has passed the House and is pending in the Senate.
"If it hadn't been for him that bill wouldn't have passed. It wouldn't have been called for a vote," said Congressman Ray LaHood, a Peoria Republican. "There would be a huge void if we lost Hastert as speaker just in terms of our clout and ability. Having the speaker from Illinois gives us bragging rights."
Accident no more
That Hastert is even in position for a third term is somewhat of a surprise to the political world, which dubbed him "The Accidental Speaker" when he ascended amidst Republican turmoil in December 1998. Georgia firebrand Newt Gingrich had decided to resign, and his heir apparent, Louisiana Rep. Bob Livingston, suddenly bowed out after admitting he cheated on his wife, all in the midst of taut impeachment proceedings against former President Clinton.
But Hastert laid the "accidental" label to rest in November 2000, retaining Republican control of the House and assuming responsibility for pushing President Bush's agenda through after the Senate came under Democratic control a few months later.
That task, ironically, became a bit easier after Sept. 11, a day Hastert, who follows the vice president in the chain of presidential succession, found himself whisked away by security guards to a secured bunker. Later that same day, Hastert was singing "God Bless America" on the capitol steps alongside House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt, the Missouri lawmaker who's trying to replace him as speaker.
So far, Hastert has helped guide Bush's tax cut, education reform, free trade and airline security measures into law, and has moved the president's homeland security and energy measures and GOP prescription drug plan to the Senate.
A pitched battle
House Republicans say they plan to run on that legislative record, and Hastert's camp remains cautiously optimistic about the party's chances to reverse the historical midterm, seat-losing trend in November.
"The speaker always says politics is a fickle business, and that's why we're taking nothing for granted," spokesman McGovern said.
Hastert has been crisscrossing the country raising money for his House GOP candidates and will have raised an estimated $50 million since 1999 when he's done. Hastert spends virtually all of his free time on the road attending fund-raisers.
Democrats, however, are "very optimistic" about their chances to retake the House, said Kim Rubey, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The party is stressing concerns over the economy, corporate accountability and the lack of a Social Security solution.
Both Democrats and Republicans argue they did better in the recent redistricting that took place in all 50 states following the census.
Overall, however, only about 40 to 50 House seats are considered under serious competition. That 10 percent total largely is because of redistricting, which in many states, including Illinois, amounted to an incumbent preservation plan.
Which party emerges victorious - and whether Hastert stays on as speaker or retires - is still too tough to predict, according to political experts.
Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington, D.C.-based political analyst, says a case can be made for either the Democrats or Republicans winning the House.
"Political prognosticating these days is a bit like trying to predict the track of an Atlantic hurricane as it approaches the coast," Rothenberg wrote in a recent issue of Roll Call.
Democrats could take advantage of the struggling economy, voters' desire for a check-and-balance to Bush, and polls that show more people concerned about the country's direction, he argues.
But the public also has yet to start blaming Bush for the economic situation, and barring a big national issue, the GOP has a slight edge in the individual races, Rothenberg said.
Charlie Cook, editor of the independent Cook Political Report, says if the election is about a series of individual, local contests, the Republicans could hold the house. An election on national issues could give Democrats an edge.
The other wildcard is a potential U.S. invasion of Iraq before or during Nov. 5. While political observers note no groundswell of popular support for such a move, the public typically rallies around the president during wartime. The national conversation then would be about war, not the sputtering economy.
And perhaps Hastert could forget about retiring to the new farm for at least another two years.
• Daily Herald State Government Editor John Patterson contributed to this report.
Too bad this doesn't apply to Senate Majority Leaders, who lose their majority. We'd have seen the last of Trent "Hairpiece" Lott. Unfortunately, he still plagues us.
1. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R)(girl trouble)
2. Speaker Tom Foley (D) (Voted out of office)
3. Speaker Jim Wright (D) (Scandals)
4. Speaker Tip O'Neill (D) (Retired outright)
Rep. Bob Livingston (R) might have served a few weeks, he also left under scandal.
The point being, yes, the last 3 Speakers did retire after giving up the gavel, but only because they were leaving anyway.
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