Posted on 09/19/2002 5:41:28 AM PDT by jonefab
Election: Experts say Democrats benefit from gender gap phenomenon
Democrat Kathleen Sebelius has a wide lead over Republican Tim Shallenburger in the governor's race thanks in large part to the support of women, a new poll shows. The poll, commissioned by the Wichita Eagle and Wichita television station KWCH-TV, gave Sebelius a 17-point lead less than two months away from the Nov. 5 election.
The survey of 680 likely voters across the state showed Sebelius leading 55 percent to 38 percent, with the rest either undecided or committed to Libertarian Dennis Hawver or Reform Party candidate Todd Pettibone.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, had a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
Among women -- who, according to unofficial numbers compiled by the Kansas secretary of state's office, make up 53.5 percent of the electorate -- Sebelius leads Shallenburger by better than a 2-1 ratio -- 64 percent to 29 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University, said Sebelius, the state's insurance commissioner, is benefitting from the "gender gap" phenomenon.
"What we know about the gender gap is that it is driven, not by the gender of the candidates, but by issues," Walsh said.
Democrats, whether they are men or women, typically benefit from the gender gap because of their traditional support of government programs that many women see as important to their economic security, Walsh said.
Those include medical assistance, child care and family leave programs.
"Women, more than men, see themselves as more economically vulnerable and more likely to be the beneficiaries of the kinds of programs that government provides," Walsh said.
The gender gap is most pronounced, Walsh said, when a Democrat is matched against a conservative Republican, such as Shallenburger, the state treasurer who defeated two moderates in the primary to claim the GOP nomination.
"What's happening in Kansas is kind of the classic set up for seeing this kind of gender gap," Walsh said.
While gratified by her apparent lead, Sebelius isn't taking anything for granted, a spokeswoman said.
"The only poll we really count on is from the people of Kansas on Nov. 5," said Nicole Corcoran-Basso.
Two months before the August primary, Shallenburger was trailing by 20 points in a race that he would go on to win by 13 percent, said campaign spokesman Bob Murray.
"The election is not tomorrow," he said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Jim McLean can be reached at (785) 233-7470 or jmclean@cjonline.com.
And Sebelius is running on the lie that she will keep costs down?
Oddly enough, the article actually is about seduction of a different sort.
Thats because he was never down by 20 points. This poll is a stinking pile of horse$hit. It claims that Sebelius is winning western Kansas? Thats funny because I just drove through western Kansas and did not see one Sebelius sign but saw tons of Shallenburger signs. Maybe its because that is where Shallenbrger's strongest support is.
I don't trust this poll. I believe this same poll predicted that Shallenburger would lose his primary. Not only was it wrong about that, but it failed to predict a Shallenburger win in Wichita, which was his opponents hometown.
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