Replies

Agreed.

A cardinal rule in negotiating is to always give the other guy an out. We cannot simply say, "Give up so we can kill you without destroying your country."

His only out is an arranged abdication. However, I am not certain that he would ever abdicate. It may be that he would rather die than go into a powerless exile. He may also feel that he is so hated by his own people that exile would mean certain death by assassination at some point in the future anyway.

In other words, he may not be willing to abdicate even to save his life. Or, he may feel abdication would not save him no matter what the assurances were. In either case, the only way to get rid of him would be to kill him.

My guess is that he will never leave. Instead, I think he will try to take as many people down with him when he goes as he can.

The biggest question, to me, is whether he will wait until we attack, or stike first. My hunch is that he will strike first. He may think/hope he can hit us hard enough to somehow survive himself, or he may simply want to watch the "fun" before he dies.

BTW: One overlooked possibility is that his cancer is about to kill him. As you may recall, he went through a bout with cancer a couple of years ago. I do not recall what kind of cancer it was, but he won the first round. If the cancer has relapsed he may not have much time left. What would Saddam do if he knew the cancer was going to get him anyway?

Just did a Google check on Saddam's cancer.

The rumors started in 1996, with a lot of speculation in 2000. Supposedly he had/has "Lymph Cancer". However, that is too broad a term to know what it really was/is.

It could be a cancer that spread to his lymph nodes, or it could be a lymphoma. Either way would be very serious, but many of the possibilities would be treatable.

If he really had cancer, he may have been completely cured, or simply have bought some more time.