Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: EternalHope
What they're hoping for is to isolate Hussein sufficiently that he will take that out. His life is a bargaining chip we need -- much as the Israelis need Arafat's life, although the stakes are much higher in our case.

The interaction between this policy goal -- Saddam removed, but not killed -- and the question of public finger-pointing at Saddam for 9-11 is somewhat complicated. To say, "Saddam did 9-11, no question" and then offer him exile would sound pretty weak, although the people could be conditioned to accept it by appropriate manipulation (they don't want to die either).

There may be a hope that they can squeeze Saddam out without having to go all the way on finger-pointing. As long as things are left ambiguous, Saddam can be given an out without loss of face to the US -- in fact we would look tough in that circumstance. Then the Atta-Prague meeting and the anthrax can simply be consigned to the category of "unsolved mysteries," which will please everybody.

However, it is still quite likely, IMO, that Saddam will resist long enough that a full disclosure is required. For example, if they reach a standoff where we have to put a nuclear bomber over Baghdad to show earnest of intent, that's going to require getting pretty explicit about Saddam's threat.

There is a continuum here between half-accusations and atmospherics and full disclosure, and the manipulation of our position on that continuum is of vital interest to the national command authority.

To understand the anthrax story, or the Prague story, you have to grasp the problem the administration faces, and the tools at its disposal to address them. If you don't -- if you just take everything at face value -- you'll never understand what's really going on.

11 posted on 09/21/2002 1:36:09 PM PDT by The Great Satan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies ]


To: The Great Satan
Agreed.

A cardinal rule in negotiating is to always give the other guy an out. We cannot simply say, "Give up so we can kill you without destroying your country."

His only out is an arranged abdication. However, I am not certain that he would ever abdicate. It may be that he would rather die than go into a powerless exile. He may also feel that he is so hated by his own people that exile would mean certain death by assassination at some point in the future anyway.

In other words, he may not be willing to abdicate even to save his life. Or, he may feel abdication would not save him no matter what the assurances were. In either case, the only way to get rid of him would be to kill him.

My guess is that he will never leave. Instead, I think he will try to take as many people down with him when he goes as he can.

The biggest question, to me, is whether he will wait until we attack, or stike first. My hunch is that he will strike first. He may think/hope he can hit us hard enough to somehow survive himself, or he may simply want to watch the "fun" before he dies.

BTW: One overlooked possibility is that his cancer is about to kill him. As you may recall, he went through a bout with cancer a couple of years ago. I do not recall what kind of cancer it was, but he won the first round. If the cancer has relapsed he may not have much time left. What would Saddam do if he knew the cancer was going to get him anyway?
12 posted on 09/21/2002 2:37:11 PM PDT by EternalHope
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson