Posted on 09/27/2002 10:42:57 AM PDT by The Wizard
I realized today why Dasshole and the rest are screaming:
About a week to ten days from now the War is going to start, (probably the weekend after the congress/the UN passes it's resolution.....**) and anyone who understands how we work can see it, the signs all turned up on TV Monday.
What you may ask gives me this insight?
Well I'll tell you, as it just hit me.....and I had real reservations about posting, (and If the folks here think this should go, pull away)....
Remember the image of the skies over Bagdad during Desert Storm.....well, on Monday both Fox news and CNN launched a midday show about the "War in Iraq", and PMSNBC sent their reporter to an aircraft carrier in the gulf who has started reporting daily about "drills"
As a TV producer it tells me they are positioning themselves to be on air during the night, (Bagdad Time) and already have everything in place to cover what they expect to be a very short war.
In my field you start a week or two ahead to get your viewers in tow, but you don't start a month or two because you'll lose them......
So, at the risk of seeming like a complete fool, the motions of the TV news gatherers tells me we'll be in and over before Halloween.
And the democrats will have to run against a victorious republican President who has just beaten Iraq, liberated Afghanistan and planted the seeds of democracy in Iran at the same time........
No wonder they're pissed:
They wanted GWB to go to the UN, he did.
They wanted him to come to congress, he did.
And now, before the election, he's going to go into Iraq........(and the War will bost the economy as well)
I've said it before and I will say it again:
Don't mess with this Texan, he's too many moves ahead
In time of war, information is often unreliable (as we learned by getting all steamed up about that Marine amphibious invasion in Desert Storm, which never happened). It may be that the media is also being led on a wild goose chase.
However, I expect the administration to do whatever it takes to win this war, including denying or granting access to the media. President Bush's primary responsibility is the defense of the nation; if you look at things from that perspective you won't be alarmed.
Minor correction: Oct. 6, the date of the new moon, is a Sunday.
My guess is that we still need a couple of months to let the diplomats have one more try and get the rest of our forces in place. That puts the start date at late fall/early winter, which is an optimum time to initiate a war in that part of the world.
What the networks DON'T want to do is get caught with their pants down, i.e. the war starts and they don't have enough resources in place to cover it. I see their current posturing as a hedge against future events and perhaps even a dry run for upcoming coverage. Don't forget: some CBS affiliates actually aired (by mistake) a rehearsal broadcast before a U.S. military operation in the 1990s (I think it was Kosovo).
One of the best indicators of network preparations is where the anchors and key correspondents are assigned. When Jennings, Rather and Brokaw go to the Middle East, that will be a definite sign that military action is in the offing. Most of the reporters in the region right now are journeymen, like CBS' Mark Phillips. When the primary anchors or hier apparents like Brian Williams start arriving in theater, I'll be more convinced that the war is about to start.
One final thought: despite being a former journalist, nothing would please me more than to see the big media outlets get caught unprepared for the war. Leaks of classified information have gotten totally out of hand, so it would be nice to see the Administration and the Pentagon put one over on the press corps....
You didn't get a call from someone at the Pentagon, did you?
That was exactly my point -- IF this movement by the media is a sign that war is imminent, then they are clearly privy to some information that is not readily available to John Q. Citizen.
I agree in theory, but I doubt seriously that Jennings, Rather, Brokaw & Williams'll go. They're much more visible anchoring from NYC. But like I said, when Amanpour, Banfield & (yes) Geraldo get there (and are all there at the same time), then we're pretty close.
They are privvy to sources of information. That's why they're referred to as "informed sources."
They aren't going to worry about bringing Saddam out they'll seal him in.....they're not worried about street fighting because it will be the republican guard doing it.....IMHO
I can understand why they might be terrified. But why would they be furious over his playing the same game they play?
The campaign will most likely start with token airstrikes against supposed WMD sites, but the real meat of it will be a fairly conventional, Afghanistan-style campaign to bring the North and South No-Fly zones under allied control. That's territory where Saddam's ability to project power is already highly limited by allied overflights, and has been for ten years. The people there don't like Saddam one bit.
Expect a year-long campaign, timed to climax about six months before the next Presidential election. The rate-limiting step will be establishing the civil defense infrastructure to protect against the anthrax retaliation Saddam threatened in the Daschle letter. We won't take on Saddam directly until we have some confidence on that score.
If North and South Iraq are already under allied-sponsored governments in 2004, kicking Baghdad out from under Saddam should be a trivial matter. Just go public on the anthrax, park a B52 bomber 20,000 feet over the city, and announce that any CBW retaliation will be met with nuclear annihilation. If there are any civilians or troops left in Baghdad by this stage of the war, they will be flushed within a few hours of this announcement. Saddam, a king without a kindom, will surrender soon after. Game over.
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