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True about turnout but two things this article does not address:

1) the poll is among registered voters, not among likely voters. Democrats always do better among registered voters than among likely voters.

2) there is no significant difference in the 40% who say they would vote GOP this poll versus the 43% in the prior wave. Looking at it from the Democrat vote, they are up to 47% from 41%. However the error range is probably at least 4% if the sample is 1100 or higher if the sample base is only 500 or so which is more likely. So the move towards the Democrats is just barely significant and probably is result of the decline in the bump Bush and GOP got after 9/11.

My best guess is the Democrats probably lead by two or three percent nationwide in the generic ballot among registered voters. However, past elections show that the Dems have to be at least five points higher among registered voters for them not to be behind among likely voters. So Republicans are still in this race.

Furthermore, the poll is national while only forty or so congressional districts are competitive and most of those are in states that Bush carried. Personally I think a better indication of how the race is going is the current state of panic among the Democrats.

I wouldn't line my bird cage with Newsweek. Dasshole's temper tantrum was not that of someone who thinks he's winning. The GOP is always behind in generic polls until late October. That is when their paid advertising becomes thick enough to offset media bias.

Your last sentence is very astute.

Question: it appears that we have a $16 million net financial advantage (just among the D vs R senate committees). Is this enough? Is it larger than usual at this point in the race?

Many thanks.