Posted on 10/01/2002 8:13:49 PM PDT by Bad~Rodeo
Until 1991 Iraq was the Middle Eastern leader in the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems. Billions of petrodollars invested in its WMD program allowed Iraq to develop all avenues of this field, including such exotic projects as superguns and laser weapons. The Gulf War and subsequent sanctions regime dealt a devastating blow to the Iraqi infrastructure, destroying almost all the plant, equipment and materials necessary for WMD production. Neither the war nor sanctions, however, could eliminate Iraq's material and personnel capabilities entirely. Iraq is still capable of rebuilding the assets it lost a decade ago.
Nuclear Weapons
The acquisition of nuclear weapons was the primary goal of the Iraqi regime in the early 1990s. With an investment estimated at up to $10 billion, Iraq came fairly close to achieving nuclear weapons production capability. Experts estimate that, barring the 1991 war, Iraq could have produced its first atomic weapon in 2-3 years, and in 5-8 years would have at its disposal a small arsenal of bombs and rocket warheads.
The US bombardment and subsequent UN inspections eliminated most of Iraq's installations and equipment, but it seems the Iraqis were able to conceal specific elements of its WMD program. As such, with the knowledge and training at the disposal of its personnel, under ideal conditions (full removal of sanctions and freedom to acquire the necessary materiel), Iraq could, hypothetically, develop a nuclear weapon in 5-8 years.
Chemical Weapons
Until 1991 Iraq possessed large quantities of chemical weapons, and was in the process of improving its arsenal. The Iraqi chemical arsenal comprised poisons (prussic acid), blister agents (mustard gas), and nerve agents (Sarin (GB), Zoman (GD), Tabun (GA), VX). These could be delivered by 25 Scud missile warheads, about 2000 bombs, 15,000 artillery shells (including mortars and MLRS rockets), and land mines.
Iraq began manufacturing chemical-weapons substances in the middle 1970s. At the start of the Iran-Iraq war Iraq possessed 120mm mortars and 130mm artillery shells loaded with mustard gas. In that war Iraq was the first side to use chemical weapons, and subsequently put them to work against the Kurdish population (according to certain sources, CW purchased from Egypt or the USSR were used against the Kurds as early as 1973-1975). In 1982 Iraq made its first use of tear gas; in June 1983, it deployed mustard gas (delivered by 250 kg bombs from Su-20 aircraft) against the Iranians. In 1984 Iraq began producing tabun and put it to work that year; in 1986 it began producing sarin. The rate of production of all types of substances bound for CW use was 10 tones per month at the end of 1985, and grew to over 50 tones per month at the end of 1986. In early 1988 Iraq's production of these substances was 70 T of mustard gas, 6 T tabun and 6 T of sarin (amounting to almost 1000 T annual output). Intensive efforts were underway for production of VX.
Although most of its chemical facilities were destroyed, it was thought that Iraq was able to conceal a part of its CW arsenal, and possibly several chemical warheads. Experts also posit that if sanctions were lifted, Iraq would be able to redeploy its CW programs without delay.
Biological Weapons
Before the Gulf War, Iraq was at an advanced stage of biological weapons (BW) production, having produced some 8500 litres of Anthrax spores, 19000 L of Botulinum, 4000 L of Aphlatoxin, and a quantity of Typhoid. In 1990 Iraq possessed up to 25 Scud warheads and 160 bombs equipped with BW. Plans were made to deploy dispersal devices mounted on aerial platforms (airplanes, helicopters, aerial drones). While its BW arsenal was eliminated, Iraq still has the technology, personnel, and some (mostly dual-use) equipment, with which it can quickly renew production.
Rockets and Ballistic Missiles
Iraq's ballistic missile (BM) program, like its CW and BW programs, was badly damaged by US strikes and subsequent sanctions. In all likelihood, Iraq was able to hide several dozen BM-some of which may be tipped with chemical or biological warheads-and several launchers (according to IISS, 6 Scud launchers with 27 missiles; according to JCSS, up to 5 'Al-Hussein' launchers with 20-30 missiles; in 1991 Iraq had 24 Scud launchers and 48 'Al-Hussein' launchers-20 mobile and 28 stationary-and about 400 missiles for these). In addition, Iraq is allowed to develop and manufacture rockets having up to 150-km range, which means its missile technologies remain intact. If sanctions were lifted, Iraq could redeploy its Scud production, according to estimates, within a year.
*KVO - radius of a circle in which 50% of all missiles hit
Long-range MLRS
Abadil-50 - 12-launcher 262mm, Yugoslavian Ì-87 clone; Abadil-100 - 4-launcher 400mm, design based on the Abadil-50; Sajeel 60 - 4-launcher 300mm, Brazilian SS-60 clone. 9K52 'Luna-M' (FROG-7) Tactical Missile
Acc. to IISS 29 launchers, acc. to JCSS 50 launchers. Deployed in Iran-Iraq War: 67 launches (10 in 1980, 54 in 1981, 1 in 1982, 2 in 1984). Fired on Saudi Arabian targets in 1991. Laith-90 is an Iraqi FROG-7 variant, with an increased range of 90 km. Al-Soumoud/Al-Fahd 300/Al-Fahd 500
In the early 1990s Iraq attempted to produce a 300-500km-range surface-surface BM based on the Soviet S-75 SAM (according to some sources the Abadil-100 is also based on the S-75). The sanctions regime allows possession of missiles of up to 150-km range; Iraq has continued production in the 100-150 km class. As of 2000 Iraq has held 8 test-launches of the above. Tactical (theater-range) ballistic missiles (SS-1C SÑUD-Â, ÎÒÐ-14)
At the start of the Iran-Iraq was Iraq had 1 'Scud' brigade (9 launchers). First launched 27 Oct 82 (though according to US experts, 8 Scuds were launched without result in 1980). 331 were launched in the course of the war (361 according to another source: 3 in 1982, 33 in 1983, 25 in 1984, 82 in 1985, 25 in 1987 and 193 in 1988). During the period of March-April 1988 (the so-called "war of the cities") Iraq expended 183 Scuds-3 per day on average-the most intensive use of Scuds in its war with Iran. In sum Iraq received delivery of 800 Scuds from the USSR, including 300 in 1986. Some of these were used in the development of the 'Al Hussein' and 'Al-Abbas'.
Al Hussein/Al Hijarah/Al Abbas
Developed from Scud-B missiles. The mass of the warhead is reduced and length of the missile is increased, resulting in a larger fuel capacity and longer range. (Length of 'Al Hussein' is 12.55m, 'Scud' is 11.25m).
Five 'Al Hussein' missiles were fired against Iran 29 Feb 88. These were able to reach Teheran (460 km from the border, beyond range of the 'Scud'; at the same time, Baghdad, 130 km from the border, was subjected to regular bombardment by Iranian Scuds). In 1991, 88 (89-93 according to other sources) missiles were fired on Saudi Arabia (46), Bahrain (1) and Israel (42; 38-39 according to other sources, including 33 'Al Hussein' and 5 'Al-Hijarah'; 19 missiles fell on greater Tel Aviv, 12 on the Haifa area, 4 on the Negev-one of these had a concrete warhead-and 4 on Samaria). Due to the missiles' low accuracy, their effect was mostly psychological. In Israel the missile attacks caused 1-2 deaths and 208 (mostly light) injuries; 4 people died of heart attack and 7 due to incorrect usage of gas masks. There were 225 cases of unsanctioned use of atropine. Damage was done to 1302 buildings, 6142 apartments, 23 public buildings, 200 stores, and 50 automobiles. The extent of the damage caused directly by the missile attacks was $250 million.
Badr-2000
Joint Iraqi-Egyptian-Argentine project to develop a 1000-km range solid-fuel missile. Cancelled due to disagreements among the participants. Argentinean designation is Condor-2/Vector; estimated range according to other sources, up to 800 km.
Tammuz-1/Al Abid
2,000-km range two-stage rocket. Currently in initial development phase.
Sources:
1. Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
2. Center for Nonproliferation Studies - Monterey Institute of International Studies.
3. "The Military Balance 2001-2002." International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) annual report. (London, 2001).
4. "SIPRI Yearbook 2001: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security." Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2002).
5. "The Middle East Military Balance 2000-2001," Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (JCSS) annual report (Tel Aviv, 2001).
6. Shunkov, V.N. "Rocket Weapons" (Minsk, 2001).
7. UNSCOM reports.
8. Information Paper: "Iraq's Scud Missiles".
Hope the democRATS are sleeping soundly tonite.
/sarcasm
Sarbannes says ridiculous, they cannot!
Should be the Kudlow and Cramer Show!!!
Watching the rebroadcast right now here in Los Angeles!
Sarbannes says ridiculous, they cannot!
D'oh! I guess that whole September 11 thing went over his head. Of course Iraq can deliver WMD to the US. That's a no-brainer.
Just means we gotta car-pool, dontcha know. The Senate WILL pass a car-pooling requirement.
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