Skip to comments.Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race [Allard up 41-38]
Posted on 10/15/2002 6:40:54 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race
Colorado Incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard, Democrat Tom Strickland in Dead Heat, Another Poll Shows
The Associated Press
D E N V E R, Oct. 15 The second poll in four days shows Republican Sen. Wayne Allard and Democratic challenger Tom Strickland in a dead heat just three weeks before the election.
The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed 41 percent supported Allard and 38 percent supported Strickland, with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points. Fourteen percent were undecided.
The poll, released Monday, was sponsored by The Denver Post, KUSA-TV and KOA radio.
A survey last week for the Rocky Mountain News and KCNC-TV showed Allard with a 39-35 lead over Strickland with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points.
Fifty-eight percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed by Denver-based Ciruli Associates said negative ads have lowered their opinions of both candidates.
"Neither of them can pull ahead or even move," pollster Floyd Ciruli said. "They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."
Allard remains in very dangerous ground, at well below 50% in most polls. However, he has held a slight lead in three of the four polls released over the past week.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Actually this race isn't your normal incumbant/new challenger race, IMO.
Strickland(D) is a well known entity and this is a rematch of the race of six years ago.
This will be about turnout with Allard squeaking it out like he did six years ago, IMO.
Uhh maybe because he is a well known entity in Colorado. He still has his base of support from his last try at the Senate in 96.
Like I stated before this race cannot be characterized as a new challenger against the incumbant. This is a rematch of six years ago and I predict the same results, Allard wins in a squeaker.
Are the Smith Pod People threatening to stay home?
Be Seeing You,
Edwards especially. His face should be the definiton of ambulance chaser in the Dictionary.
I tend to agree. The poll numbers certainly favor Strickland, though he's been unable to really move in months. And I don't expect a huge break in undecideds since Strickland is fairly well known.
Allard has more money, and there are also more Pubbies in CO than the last time these two met.
Not exactly. It's even worse. They're organizing a couple of write-in campaigns for Smith, and the good Senator is nowhere to be found to publicly ask them to stop.
I really didn't care who won that race, but I was definitely concerned the Smith folks would act like little children. Unfortunately my fears came to pass.
I don't believe that most of the rational Smith supporters will want to waste their vote.
Sent you a private Freepmail about Simon/Davis polls. Freepmail me back, please.
Be Seeing You,
The repubs have a 96 hour team assembled from paid "volunteers" (almost 700 so far) who are taking the last four days of the election off work and walking precincts and making calls.
This is the most concerted get out the vote effort ever assembled by Pubbies in Colo history. We have, in addition, a popular Repub governor running.
This will take Allard over the top in a squeaker.
I don't agree ol'pro. Our Repub registration now significantantly exceeds the Dems. Ten years ago, they were almost even.
Unlike california, our Suburban base is staunchly Republican. I know, I live in South Jeffco and go to the party caucuses. That doesn't seem to be changing a lot with the influx of Californians. The folks who leave California for the real west are doing so to get away from California and seem to be disproportionately conservative.
The greenies have some base out here. But in the general population, it tends to be "pretty mountains" type environmentalism more than the "save the green spotted tree slug" type. The fires and the water issues have resounded in the populace. It's green, as long as it doesn't hurt. Since most of the modern radical environmental agenda will hurt, and hurt a lot, this is a long term winner for us.
And you can see these factors playing out in the senate and governor's races. The dems are running from any specific stand on thinning forests and water storage because they know the issues are bigtime losers.
That pretty much sums up political campaigns in America today.
No it isn't. This is a Ciruli Associates poll.
Well, our 600 volunteers are going to be getting out the vote big time this November and the Repubs have not yet begun to shoot their wad on adventising. Strickland has already taken his best shot and outspent Allard 2:1.
BTW, I'm really getting tired of hearing media types and regular folks decry the negative ads. Politicians go negative because it works - and the media love selling all that air time.
Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.
IMHO, however, Tom Tancredo and Mike Rosen's campaign to deport an illegal immigrant who just graduated high school but had the misfortune to appear in the Denver Post is not exactly helping in a close race. Strickland is playing his pro-abortion issue hard, which should give us a chance to pick up pro-life Catholics, unless they can be driven back to the Democrats by bashing hispanics.
Yeah. BR and I both know that. Allard has been and still is vulnerable. But all those folks in 2000 were going against new candidates. Strickland's a proven commodity and a proven loser. And Allard has a lot of money in reserve.
COLORADO: Republican Sen. Wayne Allard: Raised and spent about $3.8 million; $900,583 on hand.
Democratic challenger Tom Strickland: Raised $3.5 million and spent $3.7 million; $160,131 on hand.
Strickland had better hope he still has a lot of pre-paid advertising to run. So they spent the same amount, and neither got a lot for it. But Allard led throughout.
I know this race is still competitive, but I have a difficult time believing a guy who already lost to Allard six years ago, when there were less registered Dems, can now defeat Allard while having $800K less than him and in trailing in all but one poll. I'll continue to worry about Allard, but if you make me pick right now I've gotta go with Allard taking about 53-54%.
Denver Post Capitol Bureau
Wednesday, October 16, 2002 - A majority of Colorado voters don't know of Rollie Heath, the Democrats' candidate for governor, with less than three weeks before the election. A new poll by Ciruli Associates released Tuesday found that 64 percent of registered voters either aren't familiar with Heath or have no opinion of him, while Republican Gov. Bill Owens' approval ratings remained at 74 percent.
"Unless something changes very quickly, this is going to be a blowout," said pollster Floyd Ciruli. "Heath is the candidate for governor, and many Democrats can't name him. They don't know enough about him to say if they like him, much less support him."
The survey found that fewer people would vote for Heath if the election were held now compared with those who said they would vote for him in July. Then, 28 percent said they would vote for him, versus 21 percent who would vote for him now.
Meanwhile, 64 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Owens if the election were held today, including 34 percent of Democrats polled.
"You don't get 34 percent of Democrats unless you've convinced them you're interested in their priorities and are not an intense partisan threat," Ciruli said.
The survey of 500 registered voters was conducted between Wednesday and Saturday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It was done for The Denver Post, 9News and KOA radio.
Heath said he was undaunted by the numbers.
"If I depended on the polls, I would never have gotten in the race," he said. "No one thought I'd win the Democratic nomination. That surprised a lot of people. I firmly believe we will surprise more" in the campaign's final days.
Heath is preparing to hit the airwaves with a television ad in the last 10 days of the campaign, which Ciruli said is likely to improve his poll position.
Heath became the Democratic nominee after two better-known candidates dropped out to run for Congress, believing Owens was nearly impossible to beat this election.
The Owens camp was elated by the poll results.
"I think the number of Democrats voting for Owens is great news," said Cinamon Watson, Owens' campaign spokeswoman. "It looks like Rollie Heath has gained no traction except as someone who wants to raise taxes and attack Gov. Owens."
According to the survey, 59 percent thought Colorado was headed in the right direction, compared with 30 percent who thought it was on the wrong track.
Strickland lost [in 1996] by five percentage points even though he outspent Allard by more than $1 million.