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Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race [Allard up 41-38]
ABC News ^ | 10/15/02 | Associated Press

Posted on 10/15/2002 6:40:54 AM PDT by BlackRazor

Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race

Colorado Incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard, Democrat Tom Strickland in Dead Heat, Another Poll Shows

The Associated Press

D E N V E R, Oct. 15 — The second poll in four days shows Republican Sen. Wayne Allard and Democratic challenger Tom Strickland in a dead heat just three weeks before the election.

The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed 41 percent supported Allard and 38 percent supported Strickland, with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points. Fourteen percent were undecided.

The poll, released Monday, was sponsored by The Denver Post, KUSA-TV and KOA radio.

A survey last week for the Rocky Mountain News and KCNC-TV showed Allard with a 39-35 lead over Strickland with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points.

Fifty-eight percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed by Denver-based Ciruli Associates said negative ads have lowered their opinions of both candidates.

"Neither of them can pull ahead or even move," pollster Floyd Ciruli said. "They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Colorado
KEYWORDS: allard; colorado; senate; strickland

1 posted on 10/15/2002 6:40:54 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: conservative_2001; Coop; rightwingbob; DeaconBenjamin; Congressman Billybob; Vis Numar; mwl1; ...
Poll Ping!

Allard remains in very dangerous ground, at well below 50% in most polls. However, he has held a slight lead in three of the four polls released over the past week.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

2 posted on 10/15/2002 6:42:52 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel
I heard that Colorado is a tough place for incumbents, especially for 1 term ones.

Actually this race isn't your normal incumbant/new challenger race, IMO.

Strickland(D) is a well known entity and this is a rematch of the race of six years ago.

This will be about turnout with Allard squeaking it out like he did six years ago, IMO.

4 posted on 10/15/2002 6:56:52 AM PDT by Dane
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel
Ahh Why is an ambulance chaser like Strickland doing so well?

Uhh maybe because he is a well known entity in Colorado. He still has his base of support from his last try at the Senate in 96.

Like I stated before this race cannot be characterized as a new challenger against the incumbant. This is a rematch of six years ago and I predict the same results, Allard wins in a squeaker.

6 posted on 10/15/2002 7:04:18 AM PDT by Dane
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel
Speaking of which, what's this crap I hear about Sununu being in trouble with Shaheen?

Are the Smith Pod People threatening to stay home?

Be Seeing You,

Chris

8 posted on 10/15/2002 7:08:24 AM PDT by section9
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To: William Creel
Yeah, I just can't see people like him and Edwards getting soo much support, they're sleeze bags.

Edwards especially. His face should be the definiton of ambulance chaser in the Dictionary.

9 posted on 10/15/2002 7:08:45 AM PDT by Dane
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To: Dane; BlackRazor
This is a rematch of six years ago and I predict the same results, Allard wins in a squeaker.

I tend to agree. The poll numbers certainly favor Strickland, though he's been unable to really move in months. And I don't expect a huge break in undecideds since Strickland is fairly well known.

Allard has more money, and there are also more Pubbies in CO than the last time these two met.

10 posted on 10/15/2002 7:24:20 AM PDT by Coop
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To: section9
Are the Smith Pod People threatening to stay home?

Not exactly. It's even worse. They're organizing a couple of write-in campaigns for Smith, and the good Senator is nowhere to be found to publicly ask them to stop.

I really didn't care who won that race, but I was definitely concerned the Smith folks would act like little children. Unfortunately my fears came to pass.

11 posted on 10/15/2002 7:26:45 AM PDT by Coop
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: All
Here's one thing Allard has in his favor. If Republican governore Bill Owens cruises to re-election like he's favored to do, then he just might have enough coattails to push Allard over the top.
13 posted on 10/15/2002 7:38:25 AM PDT by Big Steve
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To: Coop
I strongly suspect that the Pod People will vote Sununu when they're in the voting booth.

I don't believe that most of the rational Smith supporters will want to waste their vote.

Sent you a private Freepmail about Simon/Davis polls. Freepmail me back, please.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

14 posted on 10/15/2002 7:38:50 AM PDT by section9
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To: BlackRazor
Colorado is going the way of California and New England. It's an oasis of enviromental liberalism.
15 posted on 10/15/2002 7:42:35 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: BlackRazor
I'M CUTE. BUT I CAN'T VOTE.

PLEASE, HELP TAKE BACK THE SENATE.
IT'S FOR THE CHILDREN!

TakeBackCongress.org

A resource for conservatives who want a Republican majority in the Senate

16 posted on 10/15/2002 7:46:47 AM PDT by ffrancone
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To: Dane
I agree, Dane. Whichever party turns out the base, wins.

The repubs have a 96 hour team assembled from paid "volunteers" (almost 700 so far) who are taking the last four days of the election off work and walking precincts and making calls.

This is the most concerted get out the vote effort ever assembled by Pubbies in Colo history. We have, in addition, a popular Repub governor running.

This will take Allard over the top in a squeaker.

17 posted on 10/15/2002 7:50:16 AM PDT by ffrancone
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To: 1Old Pro
Colorado is going the way of California and New England. It's an oasis of enviromental liberalism.

I don't agree ol'pro. Our Repub registration now significantantly exceeds the Dems. Ten years ago, they were almost even.

Unlike california, our Suburban base is staunchly Republican. I know, I live in South Jeffco and go to the party caucuses. That doesn't seem to be changing a lot with the influx of Californians. The folks who leave California for the real west are doing so to get away from California and seem to be disproportionately conservative.

The greenies have some base out here. But in the general population, it tends to be "pretty mountains" type environmentalism more than the "save the green spotted tree slug" type. The fires and the water issues have resounded in the populace. It's green, as long as it doesn't hurt. Since most of the modern radical environmental agenda will hurt, and hurt a lot, this is a long term winner for us.

And you can see these factors playing out in the senate and governor's races. The dems are running from any specific stand on thinning forests and water storage because they know the issues are bigtime losers.

18 posted on 10/15/2002 7:58:33 AM PDT by ffrancone
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To: ffrancone
Thanks for the insights, perhaps it's better than I thought.
19 posted on 10/15/2002 8:02:45 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro
From your mouth, to God's ear.
20 posted on 10/15/2002 8:30:36 AM PDT by ffrancone
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To: ffrancone
Allard's opponent is a shallow but smoothly prepared typical democrat deceiver. In the MTP debate, the lieberal mindset bled through as Russert fed the democrat candidate the tilted questions. Allard is a gentleman and not given to bluster, so the approach Russert used was subtly different than the one he used to try and fluster Lindsey Graham this past weekend. But Allard represents the type of republican Coloradans like, as opposed to the clintonesque retread from the despotic democrat party. The bait&switch tactics of Allard's opponent expose the democrat methodology and the shape clinton has put on the despotic party. Look at how many democrat senate candidates appear in public using the same obfuscatory tactics of clinton!
21 posted on 10/15/2002 8:39:07 AM PDT by MHGinTN
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To: ffrancone
I agree with your insights. I think the main problem is that Allard is, how to put this, charisma-impaired? He's having a hard time getting traction with independents and will really depend on getting out the pubbie base.
22 posted on 10/15/2002 9:23:53 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: colorado tanker
This info is presented in rat-speak. In rat-speak if a rat is ahead, he is ahead margin or no margin. If a Republican is ahead, and it's within the margin, it's a dead heat. By the way this is a zomby poll and so is the one showing mclawyer in a "dead heat" with Jeb. Yesterday Chuck Todd on C-Span could not really keep a straight face when he mentioned zomby's two latest "master pieces" Minnesota and Missouri, he wondered, out loud, how races that have had no dramatic news in ten days, could swing 14 or 15 points. I don't wonder. zomby has admitted a rat bias and it shows.
23 posted on 10/15/2002 10:07:45 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
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To: BlackRazor
"They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."

That pretty much sums up political campaigns in America today.

24 posted on 10/15/2002 10:10:31 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: jmaroneps37
I agree with your observations how the media spin polls. The realclearpolitics average of all polls has Allard by five. Zogby has been favorable to Strickland all during this season. I must confess, however, that ever since Zogby called the 2000 Presidential just right and made me eat crow, I've quit knocking his data.
25 posted on 10/15/2002 10:13:44 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: MHGinTN
I agree with your comments. Strickland is following the Clinton script. Be in favor of "good" things, but don't let anyone know the leftist stuff you plan to do to accomplish them. This is a tough campaign for Allard because Strickland has no record to attack and he won't be honest with the voters about just how left-wing he actually is.
26 posted on 10/15/2002 10:31:11 AM PDT by ffrancone
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To: BlackRazor
I hope Owens and Bush can put Allard over the top. Hasn't Allard been able to find any traction on popular Republican issues like guns, taxes, and foreign policy.
27 posted on 10/15/2002 11:24:34 AM PDT by afuturegovernor
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To: jmaroneps37
By the way this is a zomby poll

No it isn't. This is a Ciruli Associates poll.

28 posted on 10/15/2002 11:37:29 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: colorado tanker
Allard isn't very good looking and his manner is clearly not slick willie. I believe Strickland went hyper-negative very early in order to disgust voters with everyone, knowing that in an honest, positive campaign, he was doomed.

Well, our 600 volunteers are going to be getting out the vote big time this November and the Repubs have not yet begun to shoot their wad on adventising. Strickland has already taken his best shot and outspent Allard 2:1.

29 posted on 10/15/2002 12:36:17 PM PDT by ffrancone
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To: ffrancone
"I believe Strickland went hyper-negative very early in order to disgust voters with everyone, knowing that in an honest, positive campaign, he was doomed." Roger that!

BTW, I'm really getting tired of hearing media types and regular folks decry the negative ads. Politicians go negative because it works - and the media love selling all that air time.

30 posted on 10/15/2002 12:47:30 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Dane
I predict the same results, Allard wins in a squeaker.

Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.

31 posted on 10/15/2002 2:24:26 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: ffrancone
Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.


32 posted on 10/15/2002 2:25:10 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: afuturegovernor
Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.


33 posted on 10/15/2002 2:25:30 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: colorado tanker
Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes.


34 posted on 10/15/2002 2:25:49 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
"Aren't there a bunch more immigrants in Colorado(legal? illegal?) than was true six years ago? Somehow I doubt those are Allard votes." Actually, the Republican registration advantage today is better than it was 10 years ago, and Bush won big here in 2000.

IMHO, however, Tom Tancredo and Mike Rosen's campaign to deport an illegal immigrant who just graduated high school but had the misfortune to appear in the Denver Post is not exactly helping in a close race. Strickland is playing his pro-abortion issue hard, which should give us a chance to pick up pro-life Catholics, unless they can be driven back to the Democrats by bashing hispanics.

35 posted on 10/15/2002 2:33:09 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: BlackRazor
Strickland's standard ploy has been to put Allard's voting record under the microscope and find fault with how he voted on one issue or another.

Strickland, on the other hand, has never been elected to anything, so Allard can't respond in kind.






36 posted on 10/15/2002 2:51:26 PM PDT by 5by5
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To: Torie; Free the USA; Bryan; deport; Dog Gone
@
37 posted on 10/15/2002 4:35:19 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: BlackRazor; Coop
P.S:
In 2000 All sitting Senators polling below 45% went home...\
Allard is polling below 45%...
38 posted on 10/15/2002 5:21:21 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: churchillbuff
I suspect the Hispanic vote has increased. But Republican registrations now outnumber Dems by about 200,000 (number from memory so take it with a grain of salt). Ten years ago, the registration figures were dead even.
39 posted on 10/15/2002 6:25:02 PM PDT by ffrancone
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To: KQQL
In 2000 All sitting Senators polling below 45% went home...\ Allard is polling below 45%...

Yeah. BR and I both know that. Allard has been and still is vulnerable. But all those folks in 2000 were going against new candidates. Strickland's a proven commodity and a proven loser. And Allard has a lot of money in reserve.

COLORADO: Republican Sen. Wayne Allard: Raised and spent about $3.8 million; $900,583 on hand.
Democratic challenger Tom Strickland: Raised $3.5 million and spent $3.7 million; $160,131 on hand.

Strickland had better hope he still has a lot of pre-paid advertising to run. So they spent the same amount, and neither got a lot for it. But Allard led throughout.

I know this race is still competitive, but I have a difficult time believing a guy who already lost to Allard six years ago, when there were less registered Dems, can now defeat Allard while having $800K less than him and in trailing in all but one poll. I'll continue to worry about Allard, but if you make me pick right now I've gotta go with Allard taking about 53-54%.

40 posted on 10/16/2002 9:46:24 AM PDT by Coop
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To: KQQL; BlackRazor; eureka!; frmrda; GraniteStateConservative
Poll update. Also some good news at bottom (see bold text) which should help out Allard.

Denver Post Capitol Bureau

Wednesday, October 16, 2002 - A majority of Colorado voters don't know of Rollie Heath, the Democrats' candidate for governor, with less than three weeks before the election. A new poll by Ciruli Associates released Tuesday found that 64 percent of registered voters either aren't familiar with Heath or have no opinion of him, while Republican Gov. Bill Owens' approval ratings remained at 74 percent.

"Unless something changes very quickly, this is going to be a blowout," said pollster Floyd Ciruli. "Heath is the candidate for governor, and many Democrats can't name him. They don't know enough about him to say if they like him, much less support him."

The survey found that fewer people would vote for Heath if the election were held now compared with those who said they would vote for him in July. Then, 28 percent said they would vote for him, versus 21 percent who would vote for him now.

Meanwhile, 64 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Owens if the election were held today, including 34 percent of Democrats polled.

"You don't get 34 percent of Democrats unless you've convinced them you're interested in their priorities and are not an intense partisan threat," Ciruli said.

The survey of 500 registered voters was conducted between Wednesday and Saturday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It was done for The Denver Post, 9News and KOA radio.

Heath said he was undaunted by the numbers.

"If I depended on the polls, I would never have gotten in the race," he said. "No one thought I'd win the Democratic nomination. That surprised a lot of people. I firmly believe we will surprise more" in the campaign's final days.

Heath is preparing to hit the airwaves with a television ad in the last 10 days of the campaign, which Ciruli said is likely to improve his poll position.

Heath became the Democratic nominee after two better-known candidates dropped out to run for Congress, believing Owens was nearly impossible to beat this election.

The Owens camp was elated by the poll results.

"I think the number of Democrats voting for Owens is great news," said Cinamon Watson, Owens' campaign spokeswoman. "It looks like Rollie Heath has gained no traction except as someone who wants to raise taxes and attack Gov. Owens."

According to the survey, 59 percent thought Colorado was headed in the right direction, compared with 30 percent who thought it was on the wrong track.

41 posted on 10/16/2002 12:36:31 PM PDT by Coop
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To: All
Another interesting tidbit from a 10/16 Denver Post article on the Senate race:

Strickland lost [in 1996] by five percentage points even though he outspent Allard by more than $1 million.

42 posted on 10/16/2002 12:43:01 PM PDT by Coop
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To: jmaroneps37
I agree that he has a bias but based on past performance I'd say he gets it closer than most. Two years ago the running gag on here was about Zogby's 'special sauce". After the dust settled he seemed to have called it closer than anyone else. Maybe he just has a better view of where the vote fraud will be occurring.
43 posted on 10/16/2002 12:52:46 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: Dane
I also noticed that Strickland runs ads that don't have his party affiliation on them.
44 posted on 10/17/2002 9:30:41 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: BlackRazor
Well, Mrs. WTR and I just cast our absentee ballots for Wayne Allard, and they should be in the mail Monday
45 posted on 10/19/2002 5:49:27 PM PDT by white trash redneck
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