Posted on 10/23/2002 6:07:46 AM PDT by doc30
Canadian Press
Halifax — Canada's economy would be at a competitive disadvantage if the federal government approves the Kyoto climate-change deal and the American administration does not, says a research paper.
"Given Canada's close trading relationship with the United States and Canada's high projected emissions growth, the U.S. decision not to ratify the Kyoto protocol has important economic implications for Canada," said the report, which appeared in an obscure Australian journal earlier this year.
Meeting the Kyoto protocol targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions "is projected to have a significant negative impact on export volumes, prices and output in key Canadian sectors."
The report adds that Canada is "projected to have the largest decline in real gross national product (about 1 per cent in 2015) of all participating parties."
Those participating countries named in the study include Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Japan, the European Union, Russia and Eastern Europe, among others.
The paper is among thousands of pages of research collected by Environment Canada this spring as it prepared its position on the impact of the accord.
If Canada chose not to ratify, the research paper says, the country's gross domestic product would increase slightly.
"The major sectors affected are emission intensive industries such as iron and steel and primary aluminum, and fossil fuel industries," said the study, whose authors are part of the conservative think-tank, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics.
There have been a number of widely varying estimates as to what kind of damage the Kyoto protocol might cause to the economy. A few weeks ago, there were reports the treaty would cost Canada $16-billion in lost economic growth and 200,000 jobs.
The Australian study estimated the cost of ratification under the current circumstances would be $13-billion (U.S.) by 2015.
It is precisely that kind of impact the federal government is trying to avoid with its much anticipated Kyoto strategy.
Perrin Beatty, president of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the federal government must take its time in developing the strategy.
Ratification should be put off until a well conceived plan is devised, he said.
"The design of the plan is going to make an enormous amount of difference," Mr. Beatty said at a Halifax news conference following a speech to business leaders.
"Where the commas go in the plan, where the semicolons go, may well decide what industries survive and what are lost. It has a real impact."
Ottawa's action plan is scheduled to be announced Monday in Halifax and Prime Minister Jean Chrétien has promised ratification before the end of the year.
The Sierra Club of Canada dismissed the Australian study, saying it's not credible and that it's almost impossible to predict what will happen 13 years down the road.
"About 60 per cent of the time when government bases its budget on next year's guesses about what the economy is doing, it's wrong," said John Bennett, the environmental group's director of atmospheric studies.
He also said the study doesn't take into account the positive economic effects of a cleaner environment and how new technologies could soften the impact of Kyoto.
Federal government estimates say the country could save as much as $200-million a year in health-care costs because of a cleaner environment.
That would have a negative effect on the economy because fewer people getting sick means less demand for health services and fewer jobs.
"Because less people are going into the hospital and dying, there'll be less economic activity in health care," said Mr. Bennett. "So our health-care costs will go down. If we need less nurses and doctors, would that be a bad thing?"
The Sierra Club of Canada dismissed the Australian study, saying it's not credible and that it's almost impossible to predict what will happen 13 years down the road.
"About 60 per cent of the time when government bases its budget on next year's guesses about what the economy is doing, it's wrong," said John Bennett, the environmental group's director of atmospheric studies.
And they have faith that the current state of industrialization will cause global warming in 100 years! What a bunch of loonies!
Only because the US - the country that was supposed to be the largest decline - didn't sign.
Even when it is not our fault, it's still our fault. Notice how the blame here is that if Canada is stupid enough to sign a bad treaty, and we are smart enough not to, and Canada suffers, then it is our fault.
LOL....Kyoto has nothing to do with clean air as CO2 is not a pollutant. Global Warming would actually be benefitial for a fridgide climate like Canada. Of course Kyoto if implemented would not even make a measurable difference in tempreture.
I promise to work hard to reduce the CO2 that I produce when these environmentalists can demonstrate that they can go 1 day without producing ANY CO2!
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