Posted on 10/24/2002 9:25:00 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Governor's Race Poll Shows Dead Heat
By Elizabeth Caldwell
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK — The Arkansas governor's race is a statistical tie with only two points separating the candidates, a new independent poll shows.
Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee leads Democratic challenger Jimmie Lou Fisher 46 percent to 44 percent in a third and final poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau before the Nov. 5 election.
"They're in a dead heat," said Ernie Oakleaf of Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock, which conducted the three polls. "It had remained fairly stable for months before that."
Oakleaf said the last two weeks before the election is a critical time.
"I think some observers say a good portion of the voters actually make their decision then," he said.
The survey of 501 randomly selected likely voters was conducted Oct. 16 through Saturday. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points after polling nearly equal numbers of people in each of the state's four congressional districts.
Opinion Research got responses from 125 likely voters in the 1st, 2nd and 4th congressional districts and 126 voters in the 3rd District.
A month ago, using the same methodology, an Opinion Research poll showed Huckabee with 51 percent and Fisher 42 percent. An August poll by Opinion Research had Huckabee with 49 percent and Fisher at 42 percent.
Joe Quinn, Huckabee's campaign spokesman, said the governor's campaign is "very comfortable" with their internal poll numbers this close to the election.
"I would gently point out that the Oakleaf poll has always tended to tilt against Republican candidates," Quinn said. "The governor has had an incredible amount of attacks made on him all summer."
Vincent Insalaco, Fisher's campaign manager, said he's happy, but not surprised.
"It agrees with what our campaign has been saying for probably a month," he said. "Our polls have indicated this."
Insalaco said voter momentum has been shifting toward Fisher since Labor Day. He said Huckabee's tactics have been "desperate," adding "he's even playing the gay card."
A Huckabee ad says Fisher sponsored a gay and lesbian fund-raiser and can't decide if she supports gay marriages.
Insalaco said Fisher had nothing of the sort, but the campaign does not ask people at fund-raisers about their sexual orientation.
"There's never been a gay or lesbian-sponsored party. It's an outright lie," he said. "Does he go around asking what the sexual preference is at all the parties he goes to so that he knows there's not any gays or lesbians there?"
According to the poll, Fisher leads Huckabee 58 percent to 38 percent in the 1st Congressional District. Huckabee leads 46 percent to 44 percent in the 2nd District, 55 percent to 32 percent in the 3rd District, and 46 percent to 44 percent in the 4th District.
The poll says Fisher leads among voters over age 65, retirees, women, blacks and those in middle to lower income brackets.
"Her demographic patterns are beginning to look like a traditional 'd' candidate," Oakleaf said.
Also, the poll says:
—By occupation, Huckabee leads 52 percent to 42 percent among white collar workers and 47 percent to 42 percent among blue collar workers. Fisher leads 51 percent to 37 percent among retirees.
—By race, Huckabee leads 51 percent to 40 percent among whites while Fisher leads 77 percent to 10 percent among blacks.
—By sex, Huckabee leads 52 percent to 40 percent among males. Fisher leads 47 percent to 41 percent among females.
—By income, Fisher leads among those making less than $50,000, while Huckabee leads with those making above $50,000.
—By education, Huckabee leads 52 percent to 32 percent among those with less than a high school education and 50 percent to 42 percent with college graduates.
Fisher leads 50 percent to 42 percent among high school graduates. Respondents with some college were tied, with 45 percent supporting each candidate.
In name recognition, the poll shows Fisher and Huckabee about even in favorability ratings, but Huckabee registers higher in unfavorability.
Fisher has 51 percent favorable, 24 percent unfavorable and 79 percent total name recognition.
Huckabee has 53 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable and 97 percent total name recognition.
That's key, Oakleaf said.
"She's still getting votes no doubt from people who don't know who she is, but who don't like Huckabee," he said.
This is the first independent poll to show Huckabee's lead to be less than 7 points.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Weekend poll, of only 501 people, with an even amount from all 4 congressional districts...something here doesn't smell quite right.
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