Race Gets Tighter For Md. Gubernatorial Candidates (Ehrlich 47, Kennedy Townsend 46)

NBC$ ^ | Oct. 30, 2002 | Mason Dixon Poll

[jern]

WASHINGTON -- The two gubernatorial candidates in Maryland are working hard to get out the vote just one week before the general elections, NEWS4 reports. The latest NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Ehrlich is once again leading Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And, voter turn out could be a key in the campaign's final days, NEWS4 reports.

The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday shows Ehrlich taking a one percentage point lead over Townsend. It has been a back-and-forth battle, but Ehrlich currently has 47 percent to Townsend's 46 percent.

Last month, it was Townsend who was ahead by one point. But, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the race continues to be a dead heat.

Dr. Sandra O'Connor, a professor of government at American University, talked to NEWS4 about the campaign landscape. "Everyone wants to be the person with momentum going into the election the weekend before," she said.

NEWS4 reports Townsend has an overwhelming lead in Baltimore city, and is well ahead of her opponent in the Washington suburbs -- Montgomery and Prince George's counties.

But, Ehrlich is expected to win every other region of the state. The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows him leading in Baltimore County, the central Maryland suburbs, the eastern shore and western Maryland. (See map, at left.)

Larry Harris, who is with Mason-Dixon polls, spoke with NEWS4 about the campaigns, and how they've progressed.

"He's been running pretty much a mistake-free campaign. He seems to have been able to successfully blunt the charges of being a right-wing Republican, or, the Democratic party would say, he's been able to disguise his record," Harris said.

Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below.
Male voters

• Ehrlich, 55 percent
• Townsend, 42 percent
  
  White voters
  
• Ehrlich, 58 percent
• Townsend, 34 percent
  
  But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.
  African-American voters
  
• Townsend, 86 percent
• Ehrlich, 9 percent
  
  Women voters
• Townsend, 51 percent
• Ehrlich, 39 percent
  

  Analysts say voter turnout will be a major factor in determining who will become Maryland's next governor.

  O'Connor told NEWS4 a low turnout could cost Townsend the election.

  "She's got to get voters out in traditionally African-American neighborhoods, she's running very strongly with African-American voters. And, she's running very strongly with women voters. So, she has to make certain that those two groups, and people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.

  O'Connor says the weekend before the election is always important, but this year takes on special significance. She says many voters in the Washington-area haven't been tuned into politics because of the sniper killings. She says a lot of decisions could be made this weekend, and both parities are making an extraordinary effort to get out the vote.

  Harris said if Ehrlich can cut into Townsend's base -- just a little -- then he'll be the one headed to Annapolis.

  "He's only gotta make a smidgen of difference. The race is so close at this point, he's doing what he's got to do in this state for a Republican to get elected. And, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not doing what a Democrat has to do in Baltimore city, Prince George's County and even in progressive Montgomery County," he said.

  Click here for more politics coverage on NBC4.com.
  
  Stay tuned to NEWS4 and refresh NBC4.com often for up-to-the-minute Decision 2002 team coverage.

  Copyright 2002 by nbc4.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

  
  
  
  More Headlines

  News Police Track Movements Of Blue Caprice Some Phones Service Restored In Bowie Be Safe This Halloween

  Entertainment Rap Pioneer Shot Dead In NYC News 4 Your Health 4-D Ultrasound Sports Jordan Ready To Be Wizards' Closer Digital Edge Maxtor One-Touch Money Martha Stewart Profits Spooked

  
  

  

  
  

[BobP]

The undecidedes will decide this one.

[Galtoid]

And an energized base.
Wonder if Bush is planning a last minute trip to the People's Republic of Maryland. It is working everywhere he goes, apparently.

[rintense]

A friend of mine, a staucnh liberal, spewed such typical lib BS last night I could barely stop laughing. She said that 'everyone knows that minorities are always Democrats and that rich, middle-class people are Republicans.' It seems very obviously to me that the majority of people vote the way they do because it's what is expected of them, rather than voting their conscience.

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

AS OF YESTERDAY THE POLITICAL ODDSMAKER (CAMPAIGNLINE.COM) RATES THIS RACE DEAD EVEN (1:1).

UP TIL NOW HE HAS FAVORED TOWNSEND.

LOVE IT! LOVE IT! LOVE IT!

[AngryAmerican]

Why do I stay in this state?

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

And she is your friend Why?

[borkrules]

But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.

African-American voters

Townsend, 86 percent

Ehrlich, 9 percent

These types of numbers are repeated time and time again across the country in various campaigns. What is with the almost Soviet-style numbers that blacks consistently bring to the democrat fold?

[Lil'freeper]

I saw this posted earlier, but not with the graphics (so thank you!) Once again the tyranny of the cities is exposed; it's election 2000 all over again.

[CollegeRepublican]

I have an idea and it is really simple. Since P.G., Montgomery, and Baltimore City are clearly Democratic and going for KKT. Maryland should just give these areas to D.C. and include the I-95 corridor to connect PG and Baltimore City. Everyone would be happy. People in Republican Maryland can own guns and people in D.C. and the newly annexed PG, Baltimore, and Montgomery Counties can live in fear for their lives under the boot of Democrap leaders.

[Deport Billary]

Why are women so liberal up in MD? There seems to be a massive gender gap in every election.

[GOPJ]

Crawl over broken glass if necessary, but please vote.

[Lil'freeper]

It is an emotional approach to governance rather than a cold, dull, boring, rational one. (I'm a she, so I'm allowed to say things like that.)

[Lil'freeper]

I agree about giving them their own state. It would solve lots of my tax gripes.

I seem to recall recently that Congress or whoever wants to give DC away. MD doesn't want it, VA either. And then they're running around with those hilarious license plates "No taxation without represenation". Go for it, go away!

[Loyolas Mattman]

Bet on a long night next tuesday, with recounts galore. Prediction: KKT will win by carrying Baltimore City with 150% of the vote.

All kidding aside, if it's close, Ehrlich loses on the Democratic cheat factor.

The goal for Maryland Republicans between now and then should be to build such an insurmountable lead in the "blue" areas, that all the cheating in the "red" areas won't matter.

[jpl]

There seems to be a massive gender gap in every election.

True. I'm wagering though that a lot of Maryland women will find Ehrlich to be sexier than Townsend in this election.

[helper]

Darn if I know, I left 20 years ago to VA. 1/3 the crime rate, Right to carry,(got mine), 2 to 1 job creation. Get the hell out and let them eat their own.

[Fracas]

I know a bunch of them. Many are professionals who have some tie to the government - lawyer, etc., or are married to very wealthy men and have angst over social injustice. (I'm not making this up). From nearly all of them I hear one thing: abortion, abortion, abortion. One female lawyer I know has two small children. I asked her why this was such an issue for her; she replied 'no old guy is going to tell me what to do'. I hear that over and over from these women. They WANT to raise taxes to fund social programs. The are rabid environmentalists - many own boats or hike. They think Connie Morella is CONSERVATIVE.

[DC native]

You are so right. It happened to Sauerbrey and it will happen to Erlich. Ooooohhh, it hurts so bad...my home state (which I abandoned in disgust)...circling, circling, circling the drain.

[Coop]

Why do I stay in this state?

So that you can volunteer for Ehrlich's campaign during these last, critical days, and then vote for him on Nov. 5th.